{"scannedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.181Z","highlights":[{"body":"The Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting is the dominant story in the economics vertical, with a clear consensus forming around a \"no hike\" outcome. The market is pricing a 76% probability (76¢) that the Fed will maintain rates (0bps hike), while the chance of a 25bps hike sits at 22¢ and a larger >25bps hike is virtually zero at 1¢. This points to a market that is confident the rate hiking cycle has concluded. However, the front end of the bond market is showing signs of stress. The 2Y Treasury proxy (SHY) fell -0.07%, the 10Y proxy (IEF) dropped -0.21%, and the 20Y bond (TLT) fell -0.19%. This suggests that while the Fed may pause, the market is pricing in a 'higher for longer' narrative, which is pressuring longer-duration bonds. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION and KXFED markets closely, as any hawkish surprise from the Fed could trigger a sharp repricing. The KXRATECUTCOUNT market shows an 80% chance of zero rate cuts by December, further solidifying the 'higher for longer' view.","title":"Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise","topic":"fed-rate","detail":"The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-"},{"body":"The energy and commodity markets are on the move, driven by a surge in oil and natural gas prices. Crude oil (USO) is up +2.21%, and natural gas (UNG) has rallied +1.92%, suggesting a supply-side shock or demand surge concerns are being priced in. Gold (GLD) is also seeing a safe-haven bid, up +1.12%, which could signal inflation fears or geopolitical risk appetite. The Energy Sector ETF (XLE) is up +1.14%, confirming strong momentum in energy equities. The rise in energy prices is a critical input for inflation expectations and consumer spending, which will be a key factor for the Fed's future rate decisions. Traders should monitor the KXBRENTMON market (brent crude) which is pricing a 64% chance of oil closing above $86.99 on July 31, indicating bullish sentiment. The KXWTIMAX markets, which track WTI price targets, show long-dated bullish bets, with 12% odds of WTI hitting $200 by year-end. This energy rally provides a potential hedge against a broader market slowdown and a direct play on inflation.","title":"Oil and Natural Gas Surge, Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand","topic":"oil","detail":"Oil (USO +2.21%) and Natural Gas (UNG +1.92%) are surging, with gold also rising, signaling a potential commodity-driven inflation scare.","relatedTickers":["USO","UNG","GLD","KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T20"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117"},{"body":"LeBron James' free agency is the single biggest story in the sports prediction market, generating massive volume across multiple contract types. The KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM series has seen multiple individual markets with over 3.5 million in volume. The specific odds for his next team are fragmented, but the most concentrated liquidity is on a generic announcement. The KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26 market shows a 45% chance of a formal announcement from a source agency (like ESPN) with significant volume. Traders are speculating on the team (multiple sub-contracts at 1¢ each for various teams), the conference (Eastern Conference is favored at 78¢), the outlet that breaks the news (Shams Charania leads at 22¢), and the contract value (the most active contract is >$4M at 88¢, with a >$50M contract at only 2¢). This is a high-volatility, high-volume event that is driving significant activity in the Sports category. A single trade or news report can move these illiquid sub-contracts dramatically.","title":"LeBron James' Next Team Bets Dominate Sports Markets","topic":"other","detail":"LeBron James' free agency is dominating sports prediction markets with millions in volume across contracts for his next team, contract value, and the reporting outlet.","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26","KXNBANEXTTEAMOUTLET-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM"}],"traditional":[{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"S&P 500","price":748.38,"symbol":"SPY","change1d":0.37,"changePct":0.05,"prevClose":748.01},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Nasdaq 100","price":703.9,"symbol":"QQQ","change1d":-4.38,"changePct":-0.62,"prevClose":708.28},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Russell 2000","price":293.05,"symbol":"IWM","change1d":-3.52,"changePct":-1.19,"prevClose":296.57},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"VIX (fear gauge)","price":20.73,"symbol":"VIXY","change1d":0.11,"changePct":0.53,"prevClose":20.62},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"1-3Y Treasury (2Y proxy)","price":81.83,"symbol":"SHY","change1d":-0.06,"changePct":-0.07,"prevClose":81.9},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"7-10Y Treasury (10Y proxy)","price":93.1,"symbol":"IEF","change1d":-0.2,"changePct":-0.21,"prevClose":93.29},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"20Y Treasury","price":83.47,"symbol":"TLT","change1d":-0.16,"changePct":-0.19,"prevClose":83.63},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"High Yield Corporate Bond","price":79.52,"symbol":"HYG","change1d":-0.12,"changePct":-0.16,"prevClose":79.64},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Gold","price":378.92,"symbol":"GLD","change1d":4.19,"changePct":1.12,"prevClose":374.73},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Oil","price":131.83,"symbol":"USO","change1d":2.85,"changePct":2.21,"prevClose":128.98},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Natural Gas","price":10.6,"symbol":"UNG","change1d":0.2,"changePct":1.92,"prevClose":10.4},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Copper","price":39.24,"symbol":"CPER","change1d":-0.29,"changePct":-0.72,"prevClose":39.52},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"US Dollar Index (DXY proxy)","price":28.46,"symbol":"UUP","change1d":-0.02,"changePct":-0.07,"prevClose":28.48},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Euro (EUR/USD proxy)","price":105.33,"symbol":"FXE","change1d":0.09,"changePct":0.08,"prevClose":105.24},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Energy Sector","price":59.19,"symbol":"XLE","change1d":0.67,"changePct":1.14,"prevClose":58.52},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Emerging Markets","price":64.98,"symbol":"EEM","change1d":-0.36,"changePct":-0.55,"prevClose":65.34},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Bitcoin ETF","price":37.32,"symbol":"IBIT","change1d":-0.3,"changePct":-0.8,"prevClose":37.62},{"date":"2026-07-22","name":"Ethereum ETF","price":15.53,"symbol":"ETHE","change1d":0.01,"changePct":0.06,"prevClose":15.52}],"edges":[{"title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec 31, 2026?","ticker":"KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.20","venue":"kalshi","price":26,"thesisPrice":85,"edge":60,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?: Dep","ticker":"0x37e9f07f3c6f352e067732261e54499c64020e9e26cbc1f658211a86bf0e5e57","venue":"polymarket","price":26,"thesisPrice":85,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession"},{"title":"Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through ","ticker":"KXHORMUZPEAK-26JUL26-T10","venue":"kalshi","price":69,"thesisPrice":10,"edge":59,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?","ticker":"KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.00","venue":"kalshi","price":27,"thesisPrice":85,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?","ticker":"KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.00","venue":"kalshi","price":14,"thesisPrice":72,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?","ticker":"KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.60","venue":"kalshi","price":16,"thesisPrice":75,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.25?","ticker":"KXAAAGASED-26NOV03-4.25","venue":"kalshi","price":16,"thesisPrice":75,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?","ticker":"KXECONSTATCPI-26JUL-T0.0","venue":"kalshi","price":22,"thesisPrice":80,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hor","ticker":"0x5f55fb4898ca3fae3f87c99eb5530baed89334cc413e650766526cb7c494c04c","venue":"polymarket","price":11,"thesisPrice":70,"edge":59,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%","ticker":"0x016a4bca735c197c1d5171a427ab46da9c58f29d292bb4b706c5ff5b189e04f2","venue":"polymarket","price":7,"thesisPrice":65,"edge":58,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"}],"topics":[{"topic":"iran","summary":"Activity on Iran-related markets is very low. The primary market regarding a new nuclear deal is trading at 0¢, indicating a near-zero probability, and there is minimal volume. There is no notable price action or new catalyst.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT","price":0,"title":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2","volume24h":22109}],"marketCount":1,"totalVolume24h":22109,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"oil","summary":"Crude oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are experiencing strong upward momentum, rising 2.21% and 1.92% respectively. The Energy sector (XLE) is also up, suggesting a broad-based rally in energy prices. This is a significant move that may be driven by supply concerns or a reflation trade.","topMovers":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/USO","price":131.83,"title":"USO Oil","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"USO","change24h":1,"volume24h":0,"whyInteresting":"A 2.21% daily gain in oil is a material move that could impact inflation expectations and transportation costs."}],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","price":64,"title":"Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026","venue":"kalshi","spread":3,"ticker":"KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","volume24h":4347}],"marketCount":2,"totalVolume24h":4347,"significantActivity":true},{"topic":"fed-rate","summary":"The prediction markets are highly active on the Fed decision. The market is pricing a 76% chance of a 0bps hike, a 22% chance of a 25bps hike, and a near-zero chance of a larger hike. The KXRATECUTCOUNT market reflects a strong belief in a 'higher for longer' stance, with an 80% probability of zero cuts by December.","topMovers":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","price":76,"title":"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting?","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","change24h":0,"volume24h":591115,"whyInteresting":"The market is heavily tilted towards a 'hold', pricing a 76% probability. This is the consensus view and a key anchor for rate expectations."}],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","price":22,"title":"Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","volume24h":633226}],"marketCount":8,"totalVolume24h":1804874,"significantActivity":true},{"topic":"recession","summary":"Activity in prediction markets for a 2026 recession is minimal. The primary market has a 12% probability of a recession being called by the NBER. There is very low volume.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRECSSNBER-26","price":12,"title":"Will there be a recession in 2026?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXRECSSNBER-26","volume24h":3426}],"marketCount":2,"totalVolume24h":3426,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"election-2026","summary":"The 2026 election markets are active but not showing significant price movement today. Democrats are heavily favored to win the House (82¢) and the presidential nomination for 2028 is a major topic with many low-probability candidates being traded, including Marco Rubio (29¢) and Jon Ossoff (15¢).","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/CONTROLH-2026-D","price":82,"title":"Will Democrats win the House in 2026?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"CONTROLH-2026-D","volume24h":14241}],"marketCount":10,"totalVolume24h":128005,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"bitcoin","summary":"Bitcoin markets show a moderate probability (60%) of BTC ending July above $67,500. The market also shows a 26% chance of BTC falling below $40,000 by Jan 1, 2027. Volume is moderate.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","price":60,"title":"Will BTC trimmed mean be above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","volume24h":38257}],"marketCount":10,"totalVolume24h":104904,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"ukraine","summary":"There is very little market activity concerning Ukraine directly. No major prediction contracts related to the conflict appear in the top volume data.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2","price":0,"title":"Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?","venue":"kalshi","spread":0,"ticker":"KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2","volume24h":22109}],"marketCount":1,"totalVolume24h":0,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"china","summary":"Activity in markets directly related to China is very low. The most prominent market is on which Chinese AI company is the best, but it has low volume.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCHINAAI-26JUL27-DE","price":1,"title":"Best Chinese AI Company this week?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXCHINAAI-26JUL27-DE","volume24h":3516}],"marketCount":1,"totalVolume24h":3516,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"trump","summary":"Markets on Donald Trump are dominated by 'Trump Says' contracts which are trading at very high probabilities of being true (often 99¢). These are more novelty markets. The contract predicting Trump leaving office before 2028 is at a low 17¢.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-B","price":99,"title":"Will Trump say \"Barack Hussein Obama\" before Jul 27, 2026?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-B","volume24h":76754}],"marketCount":5,"totalVolume24h":104794,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"ai-tech","summary":"AI and tech markets are focused on model rankings and SpaceX launches. The top AI model market shows a 90% probability for a specific model. SpaceX is a major topic with markets on the total number of launches in 2026.","topMovers":[],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-C","price":90,"title":"What will be the top AI model this month?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXTOPMODEL-26JUL27-C","volume24h":23462}],"marketCount":5,"totalVolume24h":69327,"significantActivity":false},{"topic":"other","summary":"This is by far the largest bucket by volume, dominated by sports (specifically the 3M Open and LeBron James' free agency), entertainment (Netflix rankings, Oscars), and weather (hurricane forecasts). LeBron James' next team is the single highest-volume event across all markets.","topMovers":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","price":47,"title":"What will be LeBron James's next team?","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","change24h":0,"volume24h":3553897,"whyInteresting":"This is the single highest volume market in the entire dataset. LeBron James' free agency is a massive event driving millions in volume across sub-markets for his team, contract, and the announcing source."}],"mostLiquid":[{"url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","price":47,"title":"What will be LeBron James's next team?","venue":"kalshi","spread":1,"ticker":"KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","volume24h":3553897}],"marketCount":2900,"totalVolume24h":42926837,"significantActivity":true}],"meta":{"totalMarkets":3000,"kalshiMarkets":3000,"polymarketMarkets":0},"theses":[{"id":"dc956399-c2b5-49c2-b8f2-4faa5f9ddd62","title":"Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk","slug":"russia-escalates-ukraine","status":"archived","confidence":0,"edgeCount":164,"updatedAt":"2026-04-15T02:06:38.103Z"},{"id":"0c4dada0-5a33-4daa-ac60-653cf96e0a6f","title":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. 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Powell stays until Warsh co","slug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","status":"active","confidence":83,"edgeCount":219,"updatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:05:19.073Z"},{"id":"507127af-9ea9-40d1-a440-8297581f26bc","title":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored","slug":"cali-governor-election","status":"active","confidence":44,"edgeCount":29,"updatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:04:38.189Z"},{"id":"caa9df69-20d1-432a-8476-df0105391680","title":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","slug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","status":"active","confidence":25,"edgeCount":488,"updatedAt":"2026-07-23T21:06:24.271Z"},{"id":"82bb6b15-f318-4ea5-b31d-6c25626ccd76","title":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","slug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","status":"active","confidence":37,"edgeCount":302,"updatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:05:17.078Z"},{"id":"8bee5253-cdda-47da-a231-810dd10cf58e","title":"California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watso","slug":"california-governor-2026-mahan-underpriced","status":"active","confidence":27,"edgeCount":19,"updatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:04:36.653Z"}],"signals":[{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto","thesisSlug":"cali-governor-election","summary":"No material change in the underlying dynamics of the race; the observed cross-venue price spread is likely reflecting li","confidence":44,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:04:38.775Z"},{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢","thesisSlug":"california-governor-2026-mahan-underpriced","summary":"No material change in the thesis; current events and cross-venue price movements do not fundamentally alter the causal n","confidence":27,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T22:04:37.286Z"},{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains.","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","summary":"No material change in thesis confidence. Recent volatility in Hormuz transit call markets and fuel price indices reflect","confidence":25,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T21:06:23.913Z"},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","summary":"Conflict in Iran has expanded from the Strait to inland infrastructure, confirming escalation, while federal shutdown pr","confidence":37,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T21:05:07.824Z"},{"thesisTitle":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangl","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","summary":"No material change to the thesis. Powell's commitment to finishing his term and the Fed's stance on rates aligns with ex","confidence":83,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T21:05:02.500Z"},{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto","thesisSlug":"cali-governor-election","summary":"No material change to thesis logic; primary election results for Steyer are historical confirmation of the existing fram","confidence":44,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T21:04:47.194Z"},{"thesisTitle":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains.","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","summary":"Recent market price movements indicate a digestion of inflationary pressures; gas and fuel-related contracts show modera","confidence":25,"confidenceDelta":-1,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T20:06:37.061Z"},{"thesisTitle":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those","thesisSlug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","summary":"Confidence decreased slightly as administrative capacity indicators show unexpected resilience. Market movements on empl","confidence":37,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T20:05:21.637Z"},{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢","thesisSlug":"california-governor-2026-mahan-underpriced","summary":"No material change in thesis. The recent price action cross-venue is interpreted as market noise rather than fundamental","confidence":27,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T20:04:56.728Z"},{"thesisTitle":"California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilto","thesisSlug":"cali-governor-election","summary":"No material developments were observed; market volatility remains within expected bounds and the thesis frame is unchang","confidence":44,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-07-23T20:04:47.811Z"}],"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Top edge: Will average **gas prices** be above $5.20 by Dec ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-5.20"}],"related":[{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}