{"scannedAt":"2026-04-08T18:00:34.834Z","highlights":[],"traditional":[{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"S&P 500","price":659.74,"symbol":"SPY","change1d":0.52,"changePct":0.08,"prevClose":659.22},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Nasdaq 100","price":604.66,"symbol":"QQQ","change1d":16.55,"changePct":2.81,"prevClose":588.11},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Russell 2000","price":253.56,"symbol":"IWM","change1d":1.29,"changePct":0.51,"prevClose":252.27},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"VIX (fear gauge)","price":33.84,"symbol":"VIXY","change1d":1.11,"changePct":3.39,"prevClose":32.73},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"1-3Y Treasury (2Y proxy)","price":82.37,"symbol":"SHY","change1d":0.08,"changePct":0.09,"prevClose":82.3},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"7-10Y Treasury (10Y proxy)","price":95.32,"symbol":"IEF","change1d":0.29,"changePct":0.31,"prevClose":95.03},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"20Y Treasury","price":86.88,"symbol":"TLT","change1d":0.27,"changePct":0.31,"prevClose":86.61},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"High Yield Corporate Bond","price":79.72,"symbol":"HYG","change1d":0.02,"changePct":0.03,"prevClose":79.7},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Gold","price":442,"symbol":"GLD","change1d":14.6,"changePct":3.42,"prevClose":427.4},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Oil","price":137.82,"symbol":"USO","change1d":-1.56,"changePct":-1.12,"prevClose":139.38},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Natural Gas","price":11.54,"symbol":"UNG","change1d":0.16,"changePct":1.41,"prevClose":11.38},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Copper","price":34.1,"symbol":"CPER","change1d":-0.2,"changePct":-0.6,"prevClose":34.3},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"US Dollar Index (DXY proxy)","price":27.74,"symbol":"UUP","change1d":-0.11,"changePct":-0.38,"prevClose":27.84},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Euro (EUR/USD proxy)","price":107.02,"symbol":"FXE","change1d":0.5,"changePct":0.47,"prevClose":106.51},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Energy Sector","price":60.16,"symbol":"XLE","change1d":0.52,"changePct":0.87,"prevClose":59.64},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Emerging Markets","price":57.17,"symbol":"EEM","change1d":-0.02,"changePct":-0.03,"prevClose":57.19},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Bitcoin ETF","price":39.29,"symbol":"IBIT","change1d":-0.35,"changePct":-0.88,"prevClose":39.64},{"date":"2026-04-07","name":"Ethereum ETF","price":17.18,"symbol":"ETHE","change1d":-0.28,"changePct":-1.6,"prevClose":17.46}],"edges":[{"title":"US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?","ticker":"1734822","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":3,"edge":97,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"energy-costs-kill-ai-scaling"},{"title":"Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as chair of the Board of Gover","ticker":"KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRM-KWAR","venue":"kalshi","price":97,"thesisPrice":5,"edge":92,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession"},{"title":"US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?","ticker":"1559953","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":8,"edge":92,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"hormuz-sarhu"},{"title":"US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?","ticker":"1559953","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":10,"edge":90,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion"},{"title":"What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran","ticker":"1494826","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":10,"edge":90,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"hormuz-sarhu"},{"title":"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar ","ticker":"1792249","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":12,"edge":-88,"direction":"yes","thesisSlug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis"},{"title":"Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of","ticker":"KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRMED-26AUG01","venue":"kalshi","price":91,"thesisPrice":5,"edge":86,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession"},{"title":"US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?","ticker":"1734822","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":15,"edge":85,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms"},{"title":"Will Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of","ticker":"KXFEDCHAIRCONFIRMED-26JUL01","venue":"kalshi","price":90,"thesisPrice":5,"edge":85,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession"},{"title":"What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran","ticker":"1494826","venue":"polymarket","price":100,"thesisPrice":15,"edge":85,"direction":"no","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion"}],"topics":[],"meta":{"totalMarkets":18239,"kalshiMarkets":3000,"polymarketMarkets":15239},"theses":[{"id":"4a12b0c5-775d-45e3-b09e-8b2e5582af9e","title":"MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat","slug":"maga-splits-iran-midterms","status":"active","confidence":4,"edgeCount":107,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:31.665Z"},{"id":"f582bf76-3113-4208-b568-7bfe11238748","title":"Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support","slug":"iran-war","status":"active","confidence":5,"edgeCount":97,"updatedAt":"2026-03-30T04:56:42.528Z"},{"id":"ff5186b3-279f-4e85-a3e1-01858cdecc9b","title":"Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co","slug":"powell-warsh-fed-succession","status":"active","confidence":9,"edgeCount":48,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:22.463Z"},{"id":"0c4dada0-5a33-4daa-ac60-653cf96e0a6f","title":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr","slug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","status":"active","confidence":12,"edgeCount":74,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:28.202Z"},{"id":"7104dee2-ca89-45f4-b95d-8e997252bb84","title":"Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A","slug":"energy-costs-kill-ai-scaling","status":"active","confidence":7,"edgeCount":84,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:33.005Z"},{"id":"caa9df69-20d1-432a-8476-df0105391680","title":"Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US f","slug":"fertilizer-shock-farm-crisis","status":"active","confidence":41,"edgeCount":139,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:39.795Z"},{"id":"6e16e438-c5e8-4195-9dee-56a88533e342","title":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacifi","slug":"china-taiwan-window","status":"active","confidence":76,"edgeCount":25,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:24.892Z"},{"id":"82bb6b15-f318-4ea5-b31d-6c25626ccd76","title":"DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime ","slug":"doge-federal-capacity-crisis","status":"active","confidence":41,"edgeCount":63,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:25.774Z"},{"id":"28757c5e-07b3-43ae-a1da-cb697d5cf242","title":"The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril","slug":"hormuz-sarhu","status":"active","confidence":7,"edgeCount":160,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:42.321Z"},{"id":"99dc37a2-65f4-408d-9fac-6439016e1ea3","title":"US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo","slug":"dollar-weaponization-de-dollarization","status":"active","confidence":65,"edgeCount":87,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:32.724Z"},{"id":"dc956399-c2b5-49c2-b8f2-4faa5f9ddd62","title":"Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk","slug":"russia-escalates-ukraine","status":"active","confidence":8,"edgeCount":109,"updatedAt":"2026-04-09T01:48:34.603Z"}],"signals":[{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","summary":"Thesis confidence increased from 0.02 to 0.12 following confirmation that June 2025 airstrikes failed to destroy nuclear","confidence":12,"confidenceDelta":10,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T18:33:36.013Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change. Recent market price fluctuations in State Department sentiment are minor and cross-venue spreads do ","confidence":76,"confidenceDelta":1,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T16:18:32.447Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change in the causal tree or thesis confidence; the event regarding State Department messaging constitutes a","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T15:03:26.474Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change in thesis confidence. The RUSI report provides analytical context on Taiwan's evolving gray zone stra","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T14:33:22.800Z"},{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","summary":"No material change in thesis confidence. While shipping transit data and signals of potential peace talks suggest margin","confidence":2,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T14:18:51.215Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change. Current cross-venue pricing on Taiwan travel warnings reflects existing market sentiment rather than","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T14:03:30.156Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change to the thesis. Recent price moves represent standard market volatility and cross-venue pricing noise ","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T13:03:31.444Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change to the thesis. The reported cyber budget increase for the Indo-Pacific confirms continuous pressure a","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T12:33:29.017Z"},{"thesisTitle":"US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest","thesisSlug":"china-taiwan-window","summary":"No material change. The cross-venue spread mentioned is a market structural observation rather than an external geopolit","confidence":75,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T12:03:18.171Z"},{"thesisTitle":"The United States will launch a ground invasion of","thesisSlug":"us-iran-ground-invasion","summary":"No material change. The Kalshi vessel transit data showing high probabilities of normal Hormuz traffic (96% above 3 vess","confidence":2,"confidenceDelta":0,"evaluatedAt":"2026-04-08T11:49:11.986Z"}]}