{"highlights":[{"slug":"2026-midterm-primaries-take-center-stage-with-high-volume-bets-23780e","title":"2026 Midterm Primaries Take Center Stage with High-Volume Bets","detail":"The Florida GOP gubernatorial primary and Michigan Senate race dominate trading, with massive volumes on contracts like Byron Donalds' nomination and the Senate margin of victory. These markets are setting expectations for the broader 2026 electoral landscape.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS","KXMISENATE-26-AELS","SENATEMI-26-R","CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\" or sf book KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","publishedAt":"2026-08-06T06:03:16.886Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-dominates-the-ai-leaderboard-amid-intense-model-competition-472b40","title":"Anthropic Dominates the AI Leaderboard Amid Intense Model Competition","detail":"The weekly 'Best AI' market shows Anthropic at 95¢, far outpacing competitors. This signals strong market conviction in Claude's performance, with implications for AI investment and product adoption.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26AUG10-ANTH","KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26A","KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI","KXLLM1-26DEC31-A"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"best AI model\" or sf book KXLLM1-26AUG10-ANTH","publishedAt":"2026-08-06T06:03:16.886Z"},{"slug":"oil-plunges-5-in-biggest-single-day-move-traders-flock-to-wti-max-price-bets-8e43a2","title":"Oil Plunges 5% in Biggest Single-Day Move, Traders Flock to WTI Max-Price Bets","detail":"Crude oil (USO) dropped -5.23% to $115.74, driving massive volume in oil prediction markets. The maximum WTI settle price for 2026 is now being priced at a 27% chance of reaching $115, while the chance of reaching $200 is only 6%. This sharp selloff suggests traders are pricing in softer demand or a supply glut scenario.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","UNG","KXWTIMAX","KXWTI","KXBRENTMON"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"crude oil price drop\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-05T06:04:07.442Z"},{"slug":"michigan-senate-primary-dominates-prediction-markets-with-record-13-6m-volume-2d556d","title":"Michigan Senate Primary Dominates Prediction Markets with Record 13.6M Volume","detail":"The Michigan Democratic Senate primary is the most actively traded political market in the dataset, with a single contract seeing over 13.6 million in volume. Abdul El-Sayed is the heavy favorite at 97¢ to be the Democratic nominee. The market is crowded with dozens of sub-markets on margin of victory, vote share, and place finishes, representing one of the deepest event-driven trading opportunities available.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENAT","CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","publishedAt":"2026-08-05T06:04:07.442Z"},{"slug":"trump-mention-markets-see-frenzied-activity-as-traders-bet-on-his-next-fox-news-line-bcbfa4","title":"Trump Mention Markets See Frenzied Activity as Traders Bet on His Next Fox News Line","detail":"The largest cluster of Trump-related trading is in 'mention' markets, where contracts predict specific phrases Donald Trump will say during his Fox News appearances or speeches. The most liquid contract trades at 99¢ with 54,452 volume. These markets represent a unique form of political sentiment trading, with dozens of specific phrases being priced with near-certainty.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPMENTION","KXTRUMPSAY","KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","KXTRUTHSOCIAL","KXPRESNOMD-28-GN"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump mention fox news\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-05T06:04:07.442Z"},{"slug":"trump-s-next-attorney-general-market-converges-on-a-favorite-at-95-cents-1bb5e5","title":"Trump's Next Attorney General: Market Converges on a Favorite at 95 Cents","detail":"A contract on 'Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?' surged to 95 cents, the highest conviction seen in any major cabinet speculation market. This suggests traders believe a specific individual is all but confirmed for the role.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA","KXNEXTAG-29-RDES","KXNEXTAG-29-LZEL","KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA","publishedAt":"2026-08-04T06:03:45.946Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-september-hike-vs-hold-is-a-toss-up-ecf4fc","title":"Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge: September Hike vs. Hold is a Toss-Up","detail":"Traders are assigning a 55% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, while a hold is at 42%. This marks a significant shift in expectations, with the market now expecting the Fed to continue its tightening cycle rather than pause.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXFED-26SEP-T3.75","KXRECSSNBER-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"september 2026 fed hike\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-04T06:03:45.946Z"},{"slug":"michigan-senate-primary-abdul-el-sayed-s-market-price-surges-to-98-cents-haley-stevens-collapses-0787a1","title":"Michigan Senate Primary: Abdul El-Sayed's Market Price Surges to 98 Cents, Haley Stevens Collapses","detail":"A seismic shift in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed's contract has soared to 98 cents, while his main rival, Haley Stevens, has completely collapsed to 2 cents. This reflects a decisive and unexpected outcome, likely driven by a major endorsement or polling data. ","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","CONTROLS-2026-R"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","publishedAt":"2026-08-04T06:03:45.946Z"},{"slug":"election-2026-house-control-odds-shift-as-dem-momentum-continues-30ecb4","title":"Election 2026: House control odds shift as Dem momentum continues","detail":"After a string of special election wins and favorable polling, Democrats’ probability of winning the House in 2026 jumped 3¢ to 83¢. The Senate remains a knife‑edge, with Republicans at 53¢. The Michigan Democratic Senate primary sees Abdul El‑Sayed as a near‑certainty (97¢) on massive volume.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENAT","KXBLUEWAVECOMBO"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T06:03:52.463Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-price-action-etf-inflows-push-near-term-odds-higher-de076e","title":"Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher","detail":"Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","KXBTC2026200","KXBTC50VS100"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T06:03:52.463Z"},{"slug":"ai-model-wars-anthropic-s-claude-surges-as-google-release-nears-dc6ebf","title":"AI model wars: Anthropic’s Claude surges as Google release nears","detail":"Anthropic’s probability of being the best AI model by year‑end jumped 8¢ to 66¢ after a new benchmark outperformed GPT‑4. Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 16 is priced at 76¢, suggesting an imminent launch.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26DEC31-A","KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26A","KXCLAUDE-MYTH","KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01","KXH200WS"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXLLM1-26DEC31-A","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T06:03:52.463Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-firm-after-strong-payrolls-91e81c","title":"Fed rate hike odds firm after strong payrolls","detail":"The probability of a 25bps hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting rose 4¢ to 56¢, driven by an above‑consensus U‑3 unemployment report. The market now sees only a 42% chance of a hold, and the next CPI print will be the key swing factor.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXU3-26JUL-T4.1","KXFED-26SEP-T4.00","KXRATECUT","KXRATECUTCOUNT"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate hike\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T06:03:52.463Z"},{"slug":"trump-odds-rise-on-resignation-market-after-internal-turmoil-report-148613","title":"Trump odds rise on resignation market after internal turmoil report","detail":"The probability of Donald Trump leaving office before 2027 doubled from 3¢ to 6¢ on a single report of cabinet infighting. While still low, the move attracted 6,117 contracts and signals growing potential for volatility.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT","KXTRUMPRESIGN","KXTRUMPREMOVE","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T06:03:52.463Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-russia-ukraine-war-dynamics-shifting-kostyantynivka-and-elec-5","title":"Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Shifting: Kostyantynivka and Election Signals","detail":"Russia-Ukraine War Dynamics Show Mixed Signals: Kostyantynivka Remains Contested as Political Probabilities Fluctuate, with Peace Deal Prospects Still Distant Heading into Late 2026.","topic":"ukraine","relatedTickers":["0x19f4555bdaf83d0d43","0x707125b175feb87a7d","0xaeea5f917fc5746387","0x4167e22670f31e5f93"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Russia Ukraine ceasefire\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-03T03:01:16.641Z"},{"slug":"oil-surge-drives-wti-price-ceiling-action-49c9ef","title":"Oil Surge Drives WTI Price Ceiling Action","detail":"WTI crude oil jumped 3.15% today, pushing spot to $131.9 and reigniting interest in oil price ceiling markets. The highest volume contract is the $115 call (37¢), while the $140 call (19¢) offers a leveraged upside bet. Traders are watching OPEC+ signals and geopolitical tensions.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T14","KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-4","KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"oil price ceiling\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"dodgers-top-sports-volume-as-mlb-championship-market-heats-up-1097a7","title":"Dodgers Top Sports Volume as MLB Championship Market Heats Up","detail":"The Los Angeles Dodgers are the heaviest traded sports contract, with 40¢ implied probability to win the 2026 World Series. Volume is massive at 239,898, making it the single most traded prediction market overall. The Brewers and Phillies also draw interest but at lower probabilities.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMLB-26-LAD","KXMLB-26-MIL","KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26SCUR","KXMLBNL-26-LAD"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXMLB-26-LAD","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-range-bound-but-eth-strength-points-to-altcoin-season-7391e1","title":"Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season","detail":"Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26AU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"ethereum price end of month\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-path-remains-hawkish-hike-odds-near-50-e81a1c","title":"Fed Rate Path Remains Hawkish; Hike Odds Near 50%","detail":"The market is pricing a 52% chance of a 25bp hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, while a cut is virtually off the table at 2¢. Bond yields are steady, but the debate over the terminal rate continues to dominate macro trading.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXLARGECUT-26","KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-to-keep-house-senate-battlegrounds-tight-3d8c2c","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Keep House; Senate Battlegrounds Tight","detail":"The market gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaining the House, while Senate control is a toss‑up (45% Democrat, 55% Republican). Mega‑volume markets like the Michigan Senate primary (410k volume) and the Florida gubernatorial primary (166k volume) highlight intense intraparty competition.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-D","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"trump-insurrection-act-odds-rise-political-risk-premium-builds-6d2e58","title":"Trump Insurrection Act Odds Rise; Political Risk Premium Builds","detail":"The contract 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?' sits at 59¢, a level not seen before. Combined with a 16% chance of impeachment/removal, traders are pricing in significant political uncertainty around Trump’s second term.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXINSURRECTION-29","KXTRUMPREMOVE","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT","KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-37"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXINSURRECTION-29","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}