{"highlights":[{"slug":"world-cup-markets-dominate-prediction-volume-with-billions-traded-d38c8f","title":"World Cup Markets Dominate Prediction Volume with Billions Traded","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup is the single largest driver of prediction market volume, with over $39 million in 24h volume across thousands of contracts. Match winner markets like Czechia vs Mexico and team winner markets are the most liquid.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCGAME-26JUN24CZEM","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-ENG"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup 2026 winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democratic-house-control-strongly-favored-at-78-86c17b","title":"Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢","detail":"Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATETX-26-R","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"fed-holds-steady-no-rate-action-expected-in-july-7d0cb9","title":"Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July","detail":"The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democrats-priced-at-78-to-win-house-in-2026-heavy-primary-action-5bcb55","title":"Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action","detail":"Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","KXNY10D-26-BLAN","KXNY7D-26-CVAL","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\" --market house-control","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"giannis-antetokounmpo-s-next-team-market-surges-to-near-certainty-2120fb","title":"Giannis Antetokounmpo's Next Team Market Surges to Near-Certainty","detail":"The market for Giannis Antetokounmpo's next NBA team has seen massive cumulative volume exceeding 3M contracts, with the leading outcome now priced at 98¢. This is one of the highest-conviction binary player-move markets on the platform, drawing significant speculative and hedging volume.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-winner-market-running-hot-with-2-6m-on-argentina-alone-97af4a","title":"World Cup Winner Market Running Hot With $2.6M+ on Argentina Alone","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup winner market has Argentina at 14¢, France at 20¢, and England at 12¢, with cumulative volume across all nations exceeding 20M contracts. This is the largest market category by volume across all topics.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 world cup winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"ai-race-heats-up-claude-leads-gpt-5-6-release-uncertain-4e8e47","title":"AI Race Heats Up: Claude Leads, GPT-5.6 Release Uncertain","detail":"Prediction markets show Anthropic's Claude leading the AI performance race in June 2026 (98¢), while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release remains highly uncertain (52¢). The market for AI compute resources (NVIDIA B200) is also actively traded, indicating strong interest in the sector.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUN29-ANTH","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.07"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"GPT-5.6 release\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-for-house-senate-a-toss-up-2f17df","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Toss-up","detail":"Prediction markets signal a likely Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives (78¢) in the 2026 midterms, while the Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans slightly favored (57¢). Key state-level races in California, Texas, and Maine are providing additional trading opportunities.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","SENATETX-26-R","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"house control 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"fifa-world-cup-2026-france-leads-usa-eyes-quarterfinals-5d92a5","title":"FIFA World Cup 2026: France Leads, USA Eyes Quarterfinals","detail":"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the dominant event across prediction markets. France leads the 'Winner' market at 19¢, while the USA has a 75% chance of reaching the Round of 16 but only an 8% chance of making the final. Massive volume on match winner and group stage markets highlights the event's popularity among traders.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGSUNDEFEATED-26-"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"USA world cup quarterfinal\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-iran-regime-fall-at-36-nuclear-deal-at-50-divergent-middle-e-6","title":"Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios","detail":"Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0xbb4d51e6364066d92e","0x182390641d3b1b47cc","0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494","0x5db999fad322cea291"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Iran regime nuclear\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T03:00:56.610Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-crushes-openai-in-best-ai-model-race-market-at-96-4ecb53","title":"Anthropic Crushes OpenAI in Best AI Model Race — Market at 96¢","detail":"Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 96% probability of having the top-ranked AI model in June 2026, far ahead of OpenAI (2%). This reflects strong anticipation for the Mythos model release.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUN30-A","KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"AI model ranking\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-21T06:03:27.275Z"},{"slug":"2026-world-cup-trading-frenzy-continues-usa-matches-dominate-volume-309250","title":"2026 World Cup Trading Frenzy Continues — USA Matches Dominate Volume","detail":"World Cup markets on Kalshi are the single largest category of prediction market activity, with USA winner and match contracts seeing millions in volume. USA is at 5¢ to win the tournament, but Turkey vs USA match is nearly a coin flip.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU","KXWCGAME-26JUN22ARGA","KXWCROUND-26SEMI-USA","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","publishedAt":"2026-06-21T06:03:27.275Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-2026-usa-priced-at-5-france-leads-brazil-strong-group-favorite-9d43fd","title":"World Cup 2026: USA priced at 5¢, France leads; Brazil strong group favorite","detail":"The 2026 World Cup markets are the most active on Kalshi, with USA at just 5¢ and France leading at 19¢. Group stage winner markets show massive liquidity, especially Brazil in Group C at 67¢.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCGROUPWIN-26C-BRA","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup 2026 winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-20T06:10:16.341Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-june-75k-at-5-100k-target-dims-bearish-40k-protection-at-30-2afcba","title":"Bitcoin: June $75k at 5¢, $100k target dims; bearish $40k protection at 30¢","detail":"Bitcoin sentiment is cautious: June above $75k is at 5¢, $100k by July 2026 near 0. The 'BTC below $40k by 2027' at 30¢ is the most liquid bearish contract. Watch the June 30 max/min trim spreads.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin 2026 prediction\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-20T06:10:16.341Z"},{"slug":"fed-july-hike-priced-at-23-0-cuts-by-year-end-at-78-as-inflation-persists-c01e49","title":"Fed: July hike priced at 23¢, 0 cuts by year-end at 78¢ as inflation persists","detail":"Fed rate markets show strong hawkish sentiment: July hike at 23¢, cut at 1¢. Year-end: 78% chance of 0 cuts, 16% for 1 cut. Gas price markets above $3.90 confirm inflation persistence, supporting the 'no easing' view.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXAAAGASW-26JUN22-3."],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-06-20T06:10:16.341Z"},{"slug":"u-s-open-golf-markets-dominate-prediction-volume-with-wyndham-clark-and-rory-mcilroy-as-favorites-fa1b77","title":"U.S. Open Golf Markets Dominate Prediction Volume with Wyndham Clark and Rory McIlroy as Favorites","detail":"The U.S. Open is the single largest event in the prediction market landscape, with over $33M in total volume across winner, round leader, and finish position markets. Wyndham Clark is the current favorite at 20¢ to win, while Scottie Scheffler trails at 5¢. Round 1 leader markets show a stark disparity: Clark at 96¢ and Rory McIlroy at 0¢.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXPGATOUR-USO26-WCLA","KXPGAR1LEAD-USO26-WC","KXPGATOUR-USO26-SSCH","KXPGATOUR-USO26-RMCI","KXPGATOUR-USO26-JRAH"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXPGATOUR-USO26-WCLA","publishedAt":"2026-06-19T06:03:16.269Z"},{"slug":"iran-uranium-enrichment-deal-odds-surge-20-points-057ff8","title":"Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points","detail":"The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["P 0x9d3f02264a94bafc67","P 0xbaf252e7ac957d6636","P 0x35c73eb41a0ee54b49"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Iran enrichment deal June 30\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-17T06:05:18.070Z"},{"slug":"bearish-oil-bets-surge-as-iran-optimism-grows-e10c1c","title":"Bearish Oil Bets Surge as Iran Optimism Grows","detail":"The probability of crude oil (WTI) falling below $75 by end of June has skyrocketed 47 points to 89¢, with a 37% chance of hitting below $70. This is a direct response to the increased optimism around an Iran nuclear deal, which could bring significant Iranian oil supply back to the market.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["P 0x1b2a9f58aeca1de7fc","P 0xe3f8272f4957b7dcc4","P 0xbaf252e7ac957d6636"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"WTI June crude oil\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-17T06:05:18.070Z"},{"slug":"us-iran-diplomatic-hopes-collapse-for-mid-june-78e060","title":"US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June","detail":"The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["P 0x35c73eb41a0ee54b49","P 0xbd5585ee0a5f30e605","P 0x3d8d89ffe0cbbd7580"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"US Iran meeting June\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-17T06:05:18.070Z"},{"slug":"us-iran-peace-deal-probabilities-surge-across-timelines-d78fbf","title":"US-Iran Peace Deal Probabilities Surge Across Timelines","detail":"Polymarket markets for a permanent US-Iran peace deal saw dramatic price increases across multiple deadlines, with the June 15th contract surging 61¢ to 84¢. This coordinated re-rating suggests a significant geopolitical catalyst or a shift in expert consensus on the likelihood of a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1","0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21","0x20af55ab35186377b8","0xda519921a7090298cb","0x291ff8aa0b74393898","0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"US Iran permanent peace deal\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-15T06:01:43.363Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXWCGAME-26JUN24CZEM","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXWCGAME-26JUN24CZEM"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}