{"highlights":[{"slug":"fed-solidifies-no-cut-narrative-markets-price-79-chance-of-zero-rate-cuts-in-2026-0d31c6","title":"Fed Solidifies No-Cut Narrative: Markets Price 79% Chance of Zero Rate Cuts in 2026","detail":"The Fed decision market for July 2026 and the rate cut count market for 2025-12 both show strong consensus for a prolonged hold. With $157k+ volume on the zero-cut contract, traders are betting the economy stays too resilient for the Fed to ease.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED-26JUL-T3.00","KXRECSSNBER-26","KXFEDMEET-27-JAN01"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-29T06:02:36.053Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-mania-drives-market-depth-over-42m-in-volume-across-sports-match-and-player-markets-863d5c","title":"World Cup Mania Drives Market Depth: Over $42M in Volume Across Sports, Match, and Player Markets","detail":"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the dominant force in prediction markets today. The overall World Cup winner market alone has millions in volume across all 48 participating teams. Live match advance markets like Mexico vs Ecuador are seeing extremely tight 1¢ spreads with high volume, making them attractive for active traders.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR","KXWCADVANCE-26JUN30M","KXWCGOALLEADER-26-LM","KXWCCONTINENT-26-EUR"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWCADVANCE-26JUN30M","publishedAt":"2026-06-29T06:02:36.053Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-31-russia-advancing-on-donbas-kostyantynivka-capture-by-june-at-5","title":"Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%","detail":"Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.","topic":"ukraine","relatedTickers":["0x19f4555bdaf83d0d43","0xb23587fc1e319cdf9a","0xaeea5f917fc5746387","0x4167e22670f31e5f93"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Russia capture Kostyantynivka\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-29T03:02:18.512Z"},{"slug":"fed-holds-steady-no-rate-change-expected-in-july-d7c6e4","title":"Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Change Expected in July","detail":"The KXFEDDECISION market shows an 84% probability of no rate hike at the July 2026 meeting, with over 100k volume. Traders are pricing in a pause as inflation data remains sticky.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION","KXRATECUTCOUNT","KXCPI","KXU3"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate decision july 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-28T06:02:38.862Z"},{"slug":"democrats-favored-to-retake-house-in-2026-midterms-2f6987","title":"Democrats Favored to Retake House in 2026 Midterms","detail":"CONTROLH-2026-D trades at 80¢ with strong volume, signaling market confidence in a Democratic House majority. Key Senate races in Texas, Iowa, and Maine are also drawing attention.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH","SENATETX","SENATEIA","KXGOVFLNOMR"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-28T06:02:38.862Z"},{"slug":"trump-sayings-market-explodes-tds-nearly-certain-5039db","title":"Trump Sayings Market Explodes: 'TDS' Nearly Certain","detail":"The KXTRUMPSAY series has seen massive volume, with 'Trump says TDS' at 99¢ and 74k volume. These markets capture real-time political rhetoric and have become a unique prediction asset.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPSAY","KXTRUMPATTEND","KXTRUMPRESIGN","KXAPRPOTUS"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump sayings prediction market\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-28T06:02:38.862Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-cut-expectations-deepen-as-cpi-data-looms-fab241","title":"Fed Rate Cut Expectations Deepen as CPI Data Looms","detail":"Markets are pricing in a high 82% probability of no rate hike in July, while the debate over the total number of 2026 cuts intensifies. The CPI report for June is the next major catalyst, with a 65% probability of inflation exceeding 3.7%.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"democrats-favored-for-house-in-2026-but-senate-battle-tight-724607","title":"Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight","detail":"The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXPRESNOMD-28-GN","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-etfs-slide-amid-risk-off-sentiment-ae4bc6","title":"Bitcoin ETFs Slide Amid Risk-Off Sentiment","detail":"Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant drops, with IBIT down 2.67% and ETHE down 3.08%. Prediction markets are pricing in a high probability of Bitcoin staying below $75k by month-end, reflecting bearish short-term sentiment.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","ETHE","KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price prediction\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"democrats-firming-as-favorites-to-hold-house-in-2026-918346","title":"Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026","detail":"Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control democrat\"||sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"turkiye-vs-usa-world-cup-match-sees-massive-betting-volume-22ce77","title":"Turkiye vs. USA World Cup Match Sees Massive Betting Volume","detail":"The Turkiye vs. USA World Cup group stage match is the most heavily traded contract across all prediction markets, with nearly 6 million in volume. A 10-point price swing suggests significant late action on the USA side. This level of liquidity creates tight spreads and opportunities for traders to bet on match outcomes, goal totals, and individual player props.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU","KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25TU","KXWCSCORE-26JUN25TUR","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU||sf query \"USA world cup 2026 odds\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"high-conviction-bets-on-trump-attending-world-cup-final-60ec65","title":"High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final","detail":"Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN26-3","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN2","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPATTEND||sf query \"trump world cup attendance\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-markets-dominate-prediction-volume-with-billions-traded-d38c8f","title":"World Cup Markets Dominate Prediction Volume with Billions Traded","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup is the single largest driver of prediction market volume, with over $39 million in 24h volume across thousands of contracts. Match winner markets like Czechia vs Mexico and team winner markets are the most liquid.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCGAME-26JUN24CZEM","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-ENG"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup 2026 winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democratic-house-control-strongly-favored-at-78-86c17b","title":"Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢","detail":"Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATETX-26-R","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"fed-holds-steady-no-rate-action-expected-in-july-7d0cb9","title":"Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July","detail":"The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democrats-priced-at-78-to-win-house-in-2026-heavy-primary-action-5bcb55","title":"Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action","detail":"Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","KXNY10D-26-BLAN","KXNY7D-26-CVAL","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\" --market house-control","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"giannis-antetokounmpo-s-next-team-market-surges-to-near-certainty-2120fb","title":"Giannis Antetokounmpo's Next Team Market Surges to Near-Certainty","detail":"The market for Giannis Antetokounmpo's next NBA team has seen massive cumulative volume exceeding 3M contracts, with the leading outcome now priced at 98¢. This is one of the highest-conviction binary player-move markets on the platform, drawing significant speculative and hedging volume.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-winner-market-running-hot-with-2-6m-on-argentina-alone-97af4a","title":"World Cup Winner Market Running Hot With $2.6M+ on Argentina Alone","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup winner market has Argentina at 14¢, France at 20¢, and England at 12¢, with cumulative volume across all nations exceeding 20M contracts. This is the largest market category by volume across all topics.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 world cup winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"ai-race-heats-up-claude-leads-gpt-5-6-release-uncertain-4e8e47","title":"AI Race Heats Up: Claude Leads, GPT-5.6 Release Uncertain","detail":"Prediction markets show Anthropic's Claude leading the AI performance race in June 2026 (98¢), while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release remains highly uncertain (52¢). The market for AI compute resources (NVIDIA B200) is also actively traded, indicating strong interest in the sector.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUN29-ANTH","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.07"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"GPT-5.6 release\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-for-house-senate-a-toss-up-2f17df","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Toss-up","detail":"Prediction markets signal a likely Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives (78¢) in the 2026 midterms, while the Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans slightly favored (57¢). Key state-level races in California, Texas, and Maine are providing additional trading opportunities.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","SENATETX-26-R","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"house control 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}