{"highlights":[{"slug":"fed-rate-hold-is-the-overwhelming-consensus-for-september-2026-001a13","title":"Fed Rate Hold is the Overwhelming Consensus for September 2026","detail":"The prediction market gives a 72% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its September 2026 meeting, while a rate cut is priced at just 1¢. This reflects a market that has fully priced out near-term rate cuts, believing the economy remains resilient. Any deviation in upcoming inflation or jobs data will create a significant trading opportunity in these high-volume contracts.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXU3-26AUG-T4.0","KXFED-26SEP-T3.75","KXFED-26DEC-T4.50"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T06:03:40.831Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-for-the-house-senate-a-toss-up-35f8ec","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for the House, Senate a Toss-up","detail":"The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEGA-26-D","SENATEFLS-26-R","SENATEMI-26-D","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T06:03:40.831Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-long-term-bulls-are-in-control-targeting-70k-e13b61","title":"Bitcoin Long-Term Bulls Are in Control, Targeting $70k+","detail":"The Bitcoin prediction market is overwhelmingly bullish for the medium term, with the `KXBTCMAXMON` series showing an 82% probability of BTC being above $70,000 by August 2026. This optimism is fueled by the 7% surge in the spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and a 10% surge in the Ethereum ETF (ETHE). The market is pricing in a strong continuation of the crypto rally, with significant volume concentrating on the $70k to $80k range.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","KXBTCY-27JAN0100","KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99","KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26D","IBIT","ETHE"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","publishedAt":"2026-08-20T06:03:40.831Z"},{"slug":"2026-senate-control-hinges-on-a-knife-s-edge-republicans-at-52-82f35c","title":"2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢","detail":"The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLS-2026-R","CONTROLS-2026-D","SENATEOHS-26-R","SENATEOHS-26-D","SENATEMI-26-R","SENATEMI-26-D","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 senate control\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-18T06:01:13.848Z"},{"slug":"byron-donalds-heavy-favorite-to-win-florida-gop-gubernatorial-primary-e35c63","title":"Byron Donalds Heavy Favorite to Win Florida GOP Gubernatorial Primary","detail":"Florida gubernatorial primary markets show Byron Donalds at 99% probability on massive volume, while James Fishback remains a long shot. The primary is effectively a formality, but general election positioning is still fluid.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS","KXGOVFLNOMD-26-ANIX"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Byron Donalds Florida governor\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T06:04:06.488Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-markets-see-73-chance-of-no-hike-in-september-8a639d","title":"Fed Rate Markets See 73% Chance of No Hike in September","detail":"Fed rate decision markets show a 73% probability of no hike in September, with the 25bp hike contract at 26%. Unemployment and CPI contracts indicate a still-warm economy.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXU3-26AUG-T4.2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T06:04:06.488Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-market-sees-54-chance-of-50k-before-100k-609233","title":"Bitcoin Market Sees 54% Chance of $50k Before $100k","detail":"Bitcoin prediction markets show low probability of reaching $200k by 2027, but a near-term tug-of-war between $50k and $100k. Ethereum sentiment is more positive.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26D","KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26AU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Bitcoin price 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T06:04:06.488Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-31-tim-cook-departure-watch-heats-up-apple-succession-trade-3","title":"Tim Cook Departure Watch Heats Up — Apple Succession Trade","detail":"Tim Cook's departure odds have spiked to 28% before 2027, marking major volatility in Apple's succession market, with John Ternus emerging as the frontrunner at 44% to become the next CEO.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["0xd49520181f4743ddba","0x19be7c46e28b61455e","0x935f71018092c4f90a"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Apple CEO Tim Cook\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-17T03:02:11.347Z"},{"slug":"byron-donalds-dominates-florida-gop-primary-market-at-98-d703ec","title":"Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP primary market at 98¢","detail":"Byron Donalds is heavily favored to win the Florida GOP gubernatorial nomination, priced at 98¢ with massive volume. The Republican primary is effectively decided according to prediction markets, with Donalds commanding near-certain odds.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","publishedAt":"2026-08-16T06:04:52.793Z"},{"slug":"fed-hold-expected-in-september-2026-zero-cuts-for-year-priced-at-85-75d00d","title":"Fed hold expected in September 2026; zero cuts for year priced at 85¢","detail":"Fed rate path markets show a 72% probability of no rate change in September 2026 and an 85% chance of zero cuts for the entire year. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with CPI year-over-year above 3.3% priced at 64¢.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-08-16T06:04:52.793Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-price-targets-for-2027-show-heavy-bearish-bias-57-chance-below-55k-faa3ac","title":"Bitcoin price targets for 2027 show heavy bearish bias; 57¢ chance below $55k","detail":"Bitcoin markets show low probability of $200k+ by 2027 (2¢) and a 57% chance of falling below $55k, indicating bearish sentiment. The $100k threshold by year-end 2026 is only 12¢.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55","KXBTC50VS100-BTC-26D"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-16T06:04:52.793Z"},{"slug":"sports-betting-drives-62-of-prediction-market-volume-d8a2a4","title":"Sports Betting Drives 62% of Prediction Market Volume","detail":"The 'Other' category dominates this briefing, comprising 1,869 markets (62.3% of the total) and $54.7M in volume (56.7%). This is driven by hundreds of sports contracts—from NFL win totals and golf tournament outcomes to Heisman Trophy odds. The data shows that the most liquid markets in this category are the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf props, with Scottie Scheffler's 'Finish Top 20' (KXPGATOP20-FESJC26-S at 98 cents, vol:15,142) and 'Lead Round 3' (70 cents, vol:83,550) being the most active. This signals that the current trading week is heavily event-driven, with sports events providing the deepest liquidity for speculators. While this is not a cohesive news story, it represents a significant opportunity for high-volume, short-term trading on well-defined event outcomes.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXPGAR3LEAD-FESJC26-","KXPGATOP20-FESJC26-S","KXSB-27-CIN"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"FedEx St. Jude Championship\" --venue kalshi","publishedAt":"2026-08-15T06:01:16.953Z"},{"slug":"florida-governor-primary-narrows-as-byron-donalds-consolidates-lead-0b9bcc","title":"Florida Governor Primary Narrows as Byron Donalds Consolidates Lead","detail":"Byron Donalds' probability to win the Republican nomination surged to 97¢ on 605k volume, while James Fishback dropped to 2¢. Jay Collins and other candidates are negligible. The race is effectively over, but markets on margin of victory remain active.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","CONTROLS-2026-D","SENATETX-26-D"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Florida governor primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T06:03:21.522Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-jump-as-september-meeting-approaches-6c7d9d","title":"Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump as September Meeting Approaches","detail":"The probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting rose 5¢ to 27¢, with over 590k volume on the 'Yes' contract. The 'no change' contract sits at 70¢ with 457k volume. Traders are pricing in a hawkish tilt after stronger-than-expected inflation data.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXFED-26SEP-T3.75","KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T06:03:21.522Z"},{"slug":"trump-mentions-market-explodes-ahead-of-nassau-county-remarks-579450","title":"Trump Mentions Market Explodes Ahead of Nassau County Remarks","detail":"The 'What will Donald Trump say' market (KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG) saw cumulative volume exceeding 300k across dozens of sub-contracts. The most specific phrases (e.g., 'Who are you with' at 82¢) are heavily traded. This reflects intense retail interest in decoding Trump's public statements.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG","KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26","KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-26SE"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPMENTION-26AUG","publishedAt":"2026-08-14T06:03:21.522Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-decision-a-pivot-point-for-markets-35d0df","title":"Fed Rate Decision: A Pivot Point for Markets","detail":"The highest-volume market overall is the Fed's September 2026 rate decision. The 63¢ price for a 'no hike' suggests a strong consensus for a pause, but the 36¢ for a 25bps hike indicates significant tail risk.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXFED-26SEP-T3.75"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate decision september 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-12T06:03:04.659Z"},{"slug":"election-2026-battle-for-congress-takes-shape-e47328","title":"Election 2026: Battle for Congress Takes Shape","detail":"Control of the House and Senate is the dominant election theme. Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House (85¢), while the Senate is a true toss-up. Key primaries, especially in Wisconsin, are generating enormous volume.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXGOVWINOMD-26-DCRO","HOUSETX15-26-D"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control democratic\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-12T06:03:04.659Z"},{"slug":"ai-race-openai-leads-but-no-clear-winner-2cfc29","title":"AI Race: OpenAI Leads, but No Clear Winner","detail":"The market for the best AI model on Dec 31, 2026, shows OpenAI (14¢) as the slight favorite over Google (8¢) and Anthropic (2¢). The race is wide open, with high activity on release dates for GPT-6 and Claude Opus 6.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26DEC31-OAI","KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01","KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26SEP","KXDEEPSHARE-DEEP-24"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"best ai model 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-12T06:03:04.659Z"},{"slug":"oil-prices-slip-1-19-despite-high-geopolitical-tension-84a95f","title":"Oil prices slip 1.19% despite high geopolitical tension","detail":"USO dropped to $118.27, reflecting near-term supply fears easing. Prediction markets show only 24% chance of WTI hitting $115 by year-end. Traders should watch KXWTIMAX for potential energy sector volatility.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXWTIMAX-26AUG31-T92","KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"oil price prediction\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-08T06:06:00.030Z"},{"slug":"election-2026-markets-see-massive-volume-on-long-shot-presidential-nominee-988450","title":"Election 2026 markets see massive volume on long-shot presidential nominee","detail":"Abdul El-Sayed as 2028 Democratic nominee has 1.3 million volume at 1¢ – an extreme outlier. Meanwhile, Democratic House control trades at 84¢ with 755k volume. Traders should monitor these for sentiment shifts as midterms approach.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXPRESNOMD-28-AELS","CONTROLH-2026-D","SENATETX-26-R","KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENAT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-08-08T06:06:00.030Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}