{"highlights":[{"slug":"fed-rate-cut-expectations-deepen-as-cpi-data-looms-fab241","title":"Fed Rate Cut Expectations Deepen as CPI Data Looms","detail":"Markets are pricing in a high 82% probability of no rate hike in July, while the debate over the total number of 2026 cuts intensifies. The CPI report for June is the next major catalyst, with a 65% probability of inflation exceeding 3.7%.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"democrats-favored-for-house-in-2026-but-senate-battle-tight-724607","title":"Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight","detail":"The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXPRESNOMD-28-GN","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-etfs-slide-amid-risk-off-sentiment-ae4bc6","title":"Bitcoin ETFs Slide Amid Risk-Off Sentiment","detail":"Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant drops, with IBIT down 2.67% and ETHE down 3.08%. Prediction markets are pricing in a high probability of Bitcoin staying below $75k by month-end, reflecting bearish short-term sentiment.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","ETHE","KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMAX100-26-JUNE"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price prediction\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-26T06:03:26.075Z"},{"slug":"democrats-firming-as-favorites-to-hold-house-in-2026-918346","title":"Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026","detail":"Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 house control democrat\"||sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"turkiye-vs-usa-world-cup-match-sees-massive-betting-volume-22ce77","title":"Turkiye vs. USA World Cup Match Sees Massive Betting Volume","detail":"The Turkiye vs. USA World Cup group stage match is the most heavily traded contract across all prediction markets, with nearly 6 million in volume. A 10-point price swing suggests significant late action on the USA side. This level of liquidity creates tight spreads and opportunities for traders to bet on match outcomes, goal totals, and individual player props.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU","KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25TU","KXWCSCORE-26JUN25TUR","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU||sf query \"USA world cup 2026 odds\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"high-conviction-bets-on-trump-attending-world-cup-final-60ec65","title":"High-Conviction Bets on Trump Attending World Cup Final","detail":"Donald Trump attending the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final is priced at 88¢, among the highest conviction bets across all topics. This is a proxy for broader political event attendance and has implications for diplomatic optics and market sentiment. The market on his removal from office before 2029 remains low at 31¢.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXAPRPOTUS-26JUN26-3","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN2","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPATTEND||sf query \"trump world cup attendance\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-25T06:02:49.266Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-markets-dominate-prediction-volume-with-billions-traded-d38c8f","title":"World Cup Markets Dominate Prediction Volume with Billions Traded","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup is the single largest driver of prediction market volume, with over $39 million in 24h volume across thousands of contracts. Match winner markets like Czechia vs Mexico and team winner markets are the most liquid.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCGAME-26JUN24CZEM","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGROUPWIN-26L-ENG"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup 2026 winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democratic-house-control-strongly-favored-at-78-86c17b","title":"Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢","detail":"Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATETX-26-R","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf book CONTROLH-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"fed-holds-steady-no-rate-action-expected-in-july-7d0cb9","title":"Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Action Expected in July","detail":"The market is fully priced for a Fed hold in July, with the 'no hike' contract at 75¢ and a 25bps hike at 24¢. The probability of no cuts by year-end is also 75%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-06-24T06:05:42.419Z"},{"slug":"democrats-priced-at-78-to-win-house-in-2026-heavy-primary-action-5bcb55","title":"Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action","detail":"Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","KXNY10D-26-BLAN","KXNY7D-26-CVAL","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\" --market house-control","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"giannis-antetokounmpo-s-next-team-market-surges-to-near-certainty-2120fb","title":"Giannis Antetokounmpo's Next Team Market Surges to Near-Certainty","detail":"The market for Giannis Antetokounmpo's next NBA team has seen massive cumulative volume exceeding 3M contracts, with the leading outcome now priced at 98¢. This is one of the highest-conviction binary player-move markets on the platform, drawing significant speculative and hedging volume.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26GANT","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-winner-market-running-hot-with-2-6m-on-argentina-alone-97af4a","title":"World Cup Winner Market Running Hot With $2.6M+ on Argentina Alone","detail":"The 2026 Men's World Cup winner market has Argentina at 14¢, France at 20¢, and England at 12¢, with cumulative volume across all nations exceeding 20M contracts. This is the largest market category by volume across all topics.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-AR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 world cup winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-23T06:03:58.302Z"},{"slug":"ai-race-heats-up-claude-leads-gpt-5-6-release-uncertain-4e8e47","title":"AI Race Heats Up: Claude Leads, GPT-5.6 Release Uncertain","detail":"Prediction markets show Anthropic's Claude leading the AI performance race in June 2026 (98¢), while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release remains highly uncertain (52¢). The market for AI compute resources (NVIDIA B200) is also actively traded, indicating strong interest in the sector.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUN29-ANTH","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","KXB200Q-26JUN30-6.07"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"GPT-5.6 release\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-for-house-senate-a-toss-up-2f17df","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Toss-up","detail":"Prediction markets signal a likely Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives (78¢) in the 2026 midterms, while the Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans slightly favored (57¢). Key state-level races in California, Texas, and Maine are providing additional trading opportunities.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","SENATETX-26-R","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"house control 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"fifa-world-cup-2026-france-leads-usa-eyes-quarterfinals-5d92a5","title":"FIFA World Cup 2026: France Leads, USA Eyes Quarterfinals","detail":"The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the dominant event across prediction markets. France leads the 'Winner' market at 19¢, while the USA has a 75% chance of reaching the Round of 16 but only an 8% chance of making the final. Massive volume on match winner and group stage markets highlights the event's popularity among traders.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGSUNDEFEATED-26-"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"USA world cup quarterfinal\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T06:03:15.870Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-iran-regime-fall-at-36-nuclear-deal-at-50-divergent-middle-e-6","title":"Iran Regime Fall at 36%, Nuclear Deal at 50%: Divergent Middle East Scenarios","detail":"Prediction markets are pricing simultaneous 36% regime-collapse and 50% nuclear-deal odds for Iran, suggesting traders see extreme volatility and binary outcomes rather than gradual policy shifts.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0xbb4d51e6364066d92e","0x182390641d3b1b47cc","0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494","0x5db999fad322cea291"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Iran regime nuclear\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-22T03:00:56.610Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-crushes-openai-in-best-ai-model-race-market-at-96-4ecb53","title":"Anthropic Crushes OpenAI in Best AI Model Race — Market at 96¢","detail":"Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 96% probability of having the top-ranked AI model in June 2026, far ahead of OpenAI (2%). This reflects strong anticipation for the Mythos model release.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUN30-A","KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30","KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"AI model ranking\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-21T06:03:27.275Z"},{"slug":"2026-world-cup-trading-frenzy-continues-usa-matches-dominate-volume-309250","title":"2026 World Cup Trading Frenzy Continues — USA Matches Dominate Volume","detail":"World Cup markets on Kalshi are the single largest category of prediction market activity, with USA winner and match contracts seeing millions in volume. USA is at 5¢ to win the tournament, but Turkey vs USA match is nearly a coin flip.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU","KXWCGAME-26JUN22ARGA","KXWCROUND-26SEMI-USA","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","publishedAt":"2026-06-21T06:03:27.275Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-2026-usa-priced-at-5-france-leads-brazil-strong-group-favorite-9d43fd","title":"World Cup 2026: USA priced at 5¢, France leads; Brazil strong group favorite","detail":"The 2026 World Cup markets are the most active on Kalshi, with USA at just 5¢ and France leading at 19¢. Group stage winner markets show massive liquidity, especially Brazil in Group C at 67¢.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-US","KXWCGROUPWIN-26C-BRA","KXWCROUND-26RO16-USA","KXWCGAME-26JUN25TURU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup 2026 winner\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-20T06:10:16.341Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-june-75k-at-5-100k-target-dims-bearish-40k-protection-at-30-2afcba","title":"Bitcoin: June $75k at 5¢, $100k target dims; bearish $40k protection at 30¢","detail":"Bitcoin sentiment is cautious: June above $75k is at 5¢, $100k by July 2026 near 0. The 'BTC below $40k by 2027' at 30¢ is the most liquid bearish contract. Watch the June 30 max/min trim spreads.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin 2026 prediction\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-20T06:10:16.341Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}