{"highlights":[{"slug":"michigan-senate-primary-heats-up-el-sayed-heavy-favorite-971f88","title":"Michigan Senate primary heats up – El-Sayed heavy favorite","detail":"Abdul El-Sayed holds 83¢ to be the Democratic nominee for Michigan Senate, with Haley Stevens at 16¢. Volume on these two markets exceeds 800k, making it the most traded election contest today.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXMISENATE-26","KXMCMORROWENDORSE-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Michigan Senate primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"rocket-classic-golf-dominates-prediction-market-volume-1a78f3","title":"Rocket Classic golf dominates prediction market volume","detail":"The Rocket Classic golf tournament has over 100 individual winner markets, with total volume exceeding 60M. John Parry at 0¢ and Jake Knapp at 3¢ see the heaviest betting, despite near-zero probabilities for most golfers.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXPGATOUR-ROC26-JPAR","KXPGATOUR-ROC26-JKNA","KXPGAR1LEAD-ROC26-JK","KXPGATOP20-ROC26-JKO"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Rocket Classic\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"trump-say-markets-near-99-probability-on-common-phrases-df7900","title":"Trump 'say' markets near 99¢ probability on common phrases","detail":"Numerous Trump mention contracts are trading at 99¢—almost certain he will say words like 'Windmill', 'Autopen', and 'Kamala' before Aug 3. Volume is high, reflecting interest in Trump's speaking style.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-W","KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-A","KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-K","KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-W","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"oil-crashes-9-5-largest-market-move-of-the-day-63fd49","title":"Oil Crashes 9.5%: Largest Market Move of the Day","detail":"Oil prices collapsed 9.48%, the biggest single-day drop in the dataset, signaling a potential demand shock or sudden shift in supply expectations. This dwarfs all other market moves.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120","KXAAAGASW-26AUG03-4.060"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"oil price crash demand\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"recession-worries-shift-to-2027-as-fed-holds-firm-3bd7a3","title":"Recession Worries Shift to 2027 as Fed Holds Firm","detail":"While 2026 recession odds sit at just 9¢, the market is pricing a 2027 recession at 41¢. This split-sentiment is a key warning for macro traders, especially as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady.","topic":"recession","relatedTickers":["KXRECSSNBER-26","KXRECSSNBER-27","KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"recession fed rate 2027\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-market-paints-bleak-picture-43-odds-of-falling-below-50k-2b311b","title":"Bitcoin Market Paints Bleak Picture: 43% Odds of Falling Below $50k","detail":"Bitcoin ETF fell 1.5%, but the prediction markets show a massive divergence: 43% odds of dropping below $50k vs just 3% odds of a breakout above $200k by 2027. The bearish case is being priced in.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50","KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B22"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-rise-to-50-for-september-e1696b","title":"Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 50% for September","detail":"Fed rate cut expectations are shifting: markets now price a 50% chance of a hike in September, while the probability of any cut before year-end remains low. CPI data and emergency meeting probabilities are key signals.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION","KXEMERCUTS","KXRATECUTCOUNT","KXCPIYOY"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-july-31-expiry-heavy-volume-around-64k-67k-6caaa1","title":"Bitcoin July 31 Expiry: Heavy Volume Around $64K-$67K","detail":"Bitcoin price markets are heavily traded with July 31 expiry. The $64,000-$67,000 range is the most active, while the probability of crossing $67,500 is only 9%. Ethereum's $2,000 threshold is also in play. Crypto ETFs are slightly down.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD","KXBTCMAXMON","KXBTCMINMON","KXETHMAXMON","IBIT","ETHE"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCD","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"2026-election-markets-donalds-leads-fl-gop-house-control-favors-democrats-ce4965","title":"2026 Election Markets: Donalds Leads FL GOP, House Control Favors Democrats","detail":"2026 election markets are active, with Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary heavily favoring Byron Donalds. Michigan's Senate primary has Abdul El-Sayed leading. House control is likely Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up. The balance of power combos offer granular exposure.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR","KXVOTEPRIMARY","KXSENATEMID","CONTROLH","CONTROLS","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO","GOVPARTYOH"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"trump-fox-news-mention-market-draws-massive-volume-617ddd","title":"Trump 'Fox News' Mention Market Draws Massive Volume","detail":"The market on whether President Trump will say 'Fox News' before August 1st is the second most active prediction market in the dataset with over 150,000 in volume. A 54¢ price suggests traders see this as more likely than not, reflecting intense interest in monitoring his public commentary.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26","KXTRUMPTIME-26AUG01-","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG0"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump say fox news\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"michigan-democratic-primary-heats-up-for-senate-and-governor-904998","title":"Michigan Democratic Primary Heats Up for Senate and Governor","detail":"The market for Abdul El-Sayed (62¢) to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is one of the most liquid election markets. Simultaneously, the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary shows Perry Johnson at 9¢ with solid volume. These primaries will set the stage for critical midterm battles.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXGOVMINOMR-26-PJ","KXGOVMINOMR-26-JJ"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"michigan primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"ai-model-and-gpu-markets-signal-heightened-competition-d88bae","title":"AI Model and GPU Markets Signal Heightened Competition","detail":"Markets for the top AI model in July 2026 and NVIDIA GPU compute prices are drawing significant attention. The GPT-6 release market (58¢ before Oct) and the Claude Opus debut score market are active, reflecting intense trader focus on the rapidly evolving AI landscape.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-C","KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01","KXLLM1-26DEC31-A","KXH200MS-26JUL-5.000"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"ai model\" and \"nvidia compute price\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-risk-off-day-vix-surges-10-while-s-p-drops-2-2-markets-prici-0","title":"Risk-Off Day: VIX Surges 10% While S&P Drops 2.2% — Markets Pricing Hawkish Fed","detail":"Markets remain risk-off with elevated VIX and weak equities as prediction markets increasingly price in zero Fed rate cuts for 2026 and sticky inflation above 4%, constraining policy flexibility.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350","0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5","0xfdc73f10edf0266756","0x1f61db83c47fc787f4"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cuts 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T03:01:38.383Z"},{"slug":"markets-expect-fed-to-hold-steady-but-bond-yields-rise-6f75b3","title":"Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise","detail":"The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"oil-and-natural-gas-surge-gold-rallies-on-safe-haven-demand-d4749f","title":"Oil and Natural Gas Surge, Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand","detail":"Oil (USO +2.21%) and Natural Gas (UNG +1.92%) are surging, with gold also rising, signaling a potential commodity-driven inflation scare.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","UNG","GLD","KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T20"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"lebron-james-next-team-bets-dominate-sports-markets-533385","title":"LeBron James' Next Team Bets Dominate Sports Markets","detail":"LeBron James' free agency is dominating sports prediction markets with millions in volume across contracts for his next team, contract value, and the reporting outlet.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26","KXNBANEXTTEAMOUTLET-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-in-july-cpi-data-in-focus-a8d338","title":"Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus","detail":"The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED-26JUL-T3.50","KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.4"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-price-settlement-markets-see-heavy-volume-64k-level-key-c503b6","title":"Bitcoin price settlement markets see heavy volume, $64k level key","detail":"Bitcoin price markets are highly active, with over 90,000 volume in the $64,000 bucket. The IBIT ETF is up 1.85%, and monthly trimmed mean contracts show bullish bias. Key levels to watch.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price jul 24 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"oil-prices-rally-wti-crude-weekly-contracts-active-near-80-1f584c","title":"Oil prices rally, WTI crude weekly contracts active near $80","detail":"Oil prices are rising, with USO up 1.42%. WTI crude weekly contracts show activity around $80/bbl. The December maximum oil price market is at 35¢ for $115. Watch for catalyst from Fed and Middle East tensions.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B79","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXBRENTW-26JUL2417-T"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B79","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"oil-surges-3-7-supply-fears-drive-wti-futures-activity-1c8254","title":"Oil Surges 3.7%: Supply Fears Drive WTI Futures Activity","detail":"USO rose to $123.75 (+3.7%) as oil markets react to geopolitical tensions. Prediction markets show increased probability of WTI hitting $115 by year-end (36¢ on KXWTIMAX). Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz transit data.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXWTIW-26JUL2414-T94","KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","KXHORMUZAVG"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"WTI crude oil\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-19T06:01:52.670Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXSENATEMID-26-AELS"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}