{"highlights":[{"slug":"iran-peace-deal-odds-surge-as-diplomacy-heats-up-669d49","title":"Iran Peace Deal Odds Surge as Diplomacy Heats Up","detail":"Markets are pricing a rapidly increasing probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal, with the July 31 contract jumping 15¢ to 54¢ and the June 30 contract up 13¢ to 42¢. A US blockade lift announcement by June 30 surged 18¢ to 64¢, signaling that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz may be imminent.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0x20af55ab35186377b8","0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11","0x4d0c4865bdecc5f797","0x8b369e10358094a99f"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"US Iran peace deal\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-21T06:05:48.303Z"},{"slug":"oil-markets-in-turmoil-as-bullish-bets-collapse-on-peace-hopes-427359","title":"Oil Markets in Turmoil as Bullish Bets Collapse on Peace Hopes","detail":"WTI crude oil prediction markets are experiencing a dramatic reversal. The contract for oil falling to $95 in May surged 33¢ to 72¢, while bets on $110 crashed 22¢ to 38¢. This is directly tied to the rising odds of a US-Iran detente and the potential lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0xdddbb467bd3467653c","0x4bab360a81b57047b4","0xdeb0a6abf730d61319","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","KXWTIW-26MAY2214-T95"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWTIW-26MAY2214-T95","publishedAt":"2026-05-21T06:05:48.303Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-odds-collapse-signaling-bullish-conviction-5e9dae","title":"MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Signaling Bullish Conviction","detail":"The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 crashed 14¢ to just 21¢, and the June 30 contract fell 23¢ to 43¢. Markets are concluding that Michael Saylor will not sell, reinforcing a bullish Bitcoin supply narrative.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65","0x8213d395e079614d6c","KXBTCD-26MAY2217-T77","0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCD-26MAY2217-T77","publishedAt":"2026-05-21T06:05:48.303Z"},{"slug":"russia-on-the-brink-of-capturing-pokrovsk-as-war-momentum-shifts-f1b74b","title":"Russia on the Brink of Capturing Pokrovsk as War Momentum Shifts","detail":"The 'Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31' contract surged a staggering 43¢ to 93¢, signaling the market expects a decisive Russian victory within days. This has spillover effects on Ukraine peace deal probabilities, which rose 3¢ to 31¢.","topic":"ukraine","relatedTickers":["0x1a68c8ec37bcd70297","0x4167e22670f31e5f93","0x7e50b661a2bedc670b","0x9772347ce628f4427a","0xbad704f2ae06332216"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Pokrovsk Russia capture\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-21T06:05:48.303Z"},{"slug":"powell-s-exit-probability-skyrockets-as-trump-influence-looms-ebd7a6","title":"Powell's Exit Probability Skyrockets as Trump Influence Looms","detail":"The market for Jerome Powell departing as Fed Chair by May 22 surged an unprecedented +48 points, reaching 95¢. This signals a dramatic and sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership stability, raising questions about the future of monetary policy under a potential Trump second term.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-","KXFEDLEADJUNE-26JUN1"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDLEADJUNE-26JUN1","publishedAt":"2026-05-19T06:03:41.732Z"},{"slug":"iran-peace-deal-optimism-surges-but-cautious-timelines-remain-3c85b1","title":"Iran Peace Deal Optimism Surges, but Cautious Timelines Remain","detail":"Across multiple expiry dates, the probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal increased significantly, with the June 30 contract rising +8 to 34¢ and the July 31 contract reaching 48¢. This optimism is coupled with a sharp rise in diplomatic meeting probabilities, suggesting a multi-track negotiation process is underway.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0x20af55ab35186377b8","0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran\" ","publishedAt":"2026-05-19T06:03:41.732Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-probability-skyrockets-crypto-markets-wobble-b8a261","title":"MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Skyrockets, Crypto Markets Wobble","detail":"The market for MicroStrategy selling any Bitcoin by May 31 surged +11 points to 40¢, while the probability for a sale by June 30 is now 71¢. This selling pressure narrative is weighing on Bitcoin prices, which are down alongside traditional risk assets.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65","KXBTCD-26MAY1917-T76"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-19T06:03:41.732Z"},{"slug":"iran-nuclear-deal-odds-tumble-as-may-31-deadline-approaches-46e428","title":"Iran nuclear deal odds tumble as May 31 deadline approaches","detail":"The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31 dropped 2¢ to 8¢ with over 520k volume, while a diplomatic meeting by the same date fell 4¢ to 14¢. Traders are losing confidence in a near-term breakthrough, likely due to recent escalations and lack of progress in talks.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x0e4a0c937b8934c247","0x2bef40a1f62d045527","0x9e0e621f21099a443d","0x5db999fad322cea291","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran peace deal may 31\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-18T06:04:56.475Z"},{"slug":"oil-traders-brace-for-extended-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-ce8813","title":"Oil traders brace for extended Strait of Hormuz disruption","detail":"The probability of the US blockade being lifted by May 31 dropped 4¢ to 16¢, while the market for normal traffic by end of June sits at 28¢. Combined with WTI contracts pricing in a high likelihood of prices above $100, traders are betting on sustained supply risk.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0x8b369e10358094a99f","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","KXWTI-26MAY1814-T103","KXWTI-26MAY1914-T95."],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWTI-26MAY1914-T95.","publishedAt":"2026-05-18T06:04:56.475Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-extends-ai-lead-as-gemini-3-5-release-approaches-3e5e5d","title":"Anthropic extends AI lead as Gemini 3.5 release approaches","detail":"The market for the best AI model end of May gives Anthropic a 92% probability, up 3¢ on 63k volume. Gemini 3.5 release by May 31 is priced at 82¢, up 6¢. The AI race is consolidating around a few players, with Google trying to catch up.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["0x5072d0bf27763754b7","0x009cb79c526eff4af8","0x2ae22e1fd29651ed6f","0xc6176e61dc008476c1"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"best ai model may 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-18T06:04:56.475Z"},{"slug":"iran-regime-change-and-deal-markets-surge-in-volume-94beef","title":"Iran Regime Change and Deal Markets Surge in Volume","detail":"Massive trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi, driven by a jump in the probability of a presidential election and a permanent peace deal. The regime's survival after US strikes is seen as highly likely.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x9e0e621f21099a443d","0x0e4a0c937b8934c247","0x2bef40a1f62d045527"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran regime fall\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-17T06:02:18.729Z"},{"slug":"oil-spikes-on-geopolitical-risk-market-bets-on-140-39b901","title":"Oil Spikes on Geopolitical Risk, Market Bets on $140+","detail":"Crude oil prices surged 4.13% as markets price in disruption from the Strait of Hormuz. High-volume contracts point to a belief that oil will hit $140 by June, a direct hedge against escalating conflict.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0xffe381a80c1e36f9e0","0x2383fa89e0e900136e","USO"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Strait of Hormuz oil\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-17T06:02:18.729Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-odds-collapse-pushing-btc-lower-af12f0","title":"MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Collapse, Pushing BTC Lower","detail":"The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 plummeted 22¢ to 34¢, driving bearish sentiment across the Bitcoin ecosystem. The market now expects a longer-term hold.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8213d395e079614d6c","IBIT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCD-26MAY1717-T76","publishedAt":"2026-05-17T06:02:18.729Z"},{"slug":"iran-peace-deal-bets-swing-on-long-dated-optimism-d166fe","title":"Iran Peace Deal Bets Swing on Long-Dated Optimism","detail":"The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 jumped 4¢ to 67¢, while the June 30 contract dipped 2¢ to 32¢. This divergence suggests traders see progress but expect a longer timeline.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11","0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0x9352c559e9648ab4ca","0x5db999fad322cea291"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"US Iran peace deal 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-16T06:04:20.456Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-cut-expectations-edge-lower-0-cut-contract-drops-3-a95b10","title":"Fed Rate Cut Expectations Edge Lower – 0-Cut Contract Drops 3¢","detail":"The market for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 fell from 72¢ to 69¢, while the June 'no change' contract remains at 98¢. A small but growing possibility of cuts is being priced in for later in the year.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350","0xde04b189b3f19eaccd","KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-","publishedAt":"2026-05-16T06:04:20.456Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-probability-volatile-may-31-contract-drops-5-5b8890","title":"MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Probability Volatile – May 31 Contract Drops 5¢","detail":"The likelihood that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 fell 5¢ to 56¢, while the June 30 contract rose 2¢ to 76¢. Traders are navigating conflicting signals about the company's Bitcoin strategy.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MA"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-16T06:04:20.456Z"},{"slug":"iran-de-escalation-odds-soar-as-peace-deal-and-diplomacy-markets-surge-2cf6c7","title":"Iran De-escalation Odds Soar as Peace Deal and Diplomacy Markets Surge","detail":"US-Iran permanent peace deal contracts saw significant volume and price increases, with the December 31 timeline reaching 67¢ (+4¢) on 108k volume. The 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30' contract traded at 56¢. These moves suggest traders are pricing in a material chance of diplomatic resolution amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11","0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3","0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6","0x5d61b77e97e8e982e7ffc31","0x25fb28382075f418a9"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran peace deal\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-15T18:05:11.409Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-path-firms-as-no-change-june-contract-hits-98-rate-cut-expectations-fade-d7d236","title":"Fed Rate Path Firms as 'No Change' June Contract Hits 98¢, Rate Cut Expectations Fade","detail":"The 'Fed Decision in June: No change' contract on Polymarket rose 1¢ to 98¢ on 435k volume, the highest conviction level of any Fed market. Meanwhile, the 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026: 0' contract fell 5¢ to 67¢, signaling some erosion in the hawkish consensus. Kalshi's 0bps hike contract is at 96¢ with tight spreads, confirming the market sees no rate action at the June meeting.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["0xde04b189b3f19eaccd","KXFEDDECISION-26JUN-","0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350","0x5e082f0b57f47a2904","0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe","0xd5ab04c1da2051ee27"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-15T18:05:11.409Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-odds-spike-may-31-contract-hits-56-june-30-at-78-06e442","title":"MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Odds Spike: May 31 Contract Hits 56¢, June 30 at 78¢","detail":"The 'MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026' contract surged 3¢ to 56¢ on 489k volume, while the June 30 contract hit 78¢ (+4¢). This suggests traders increasingly believe MSTR will sell some of its massive BTC holdings, potentially catalyzing a market move. IBIT ETF dropped -1.33% and Bitcoin spot markets show weakness.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad65","0x8213d395e079614d6c","0xbb379a14cd03f68c35","KXBTCMAX100-26-MAY","IBIT"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"microstrategy bitcoin sale\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-15T18:05:11.409Z"},{"slug":"microstrategy-btc-sale-odds-skyrocket-16-points-8f23ce","title":"MicroStrategy BTC Sale Odds Skyrocket 16 Points","detail":"The probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31 surged 16 points to 61¢ on Polymarket, the largest single move in crypto prediction markets today. This suggests a potential catalyst — earnings report,13F filing, or strategic pivot — may be driving the market.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["0x3733a1b647e7364095","0x8213d395e079614d6c","0x337ed4a919995ef9ba","IBIT"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"MicroStrategy sell Bitcoin\"","publishedAt":"2026-05-15T06:05:03.545Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect 0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}