{"highlights":[{"slug":"iran-nuclear-deal-odds-surge-as-june-30-deadline-looms-d8946e","title":"Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Surge as June 30 Deadline Looms","detail":"The probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 skyrocketed 29¢ to 45¢ in a single session, while a diplomatic meeting by that date jumped 35¢ to 68¢. Traders are pricing in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy, with the 'peace deal by December 31' contract at 76¢ suggesting a long-term resolution is considered likely even if the June deadline slips.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0xa70fc3695a65833b91","0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3","0x4d0c4865bdecc5f797","0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11","KXHORMUZNORM"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran nuclear deal june 30\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-12T06:03:10.885Z"},{"slug":"oil-plunges-as-hormuz-blockade-easing-priced-in-f2743b","title":"Oil Plunges as Hormuz Blockade Easing Priced In","detail":"Crude oil markets are moving sharply lower, with USO falling 4.64% and the 'WTI below $80 by June 30' contract surging 23¢ to 48¢. The catalyst is the repricing of Strait of Hormuz risk; the 'normal traffic by July 31' contract jumped 18¢ in sympathy with the Iran diplomatic surge. Traders should watch for WTI testing key technical levels if blockade news continues to flow.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0xbaf252e7ac957d6636","0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","KXHORMUZNORM","0x82033ffc908562008e"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"crude oil june 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-12T06:03:10.885Z"},{"slug":"trump-pivots-on-hormuz-blockade-market-prices-63-chance-of-lift-by-june-30-9003a4","title":"Trump Pivots on Hormuz Blockade — Market Prices 63% Chance of Lift by June 30","detail":"The 'Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30' contract surged 32¢ to 63¢ in a single session, making it the single biggest mover across all Trump-linked markets. This repricing is the direct political consequence of the Iran diplomatic surge — traders now see a high likelihood that the administration will claim a diplomatic win by lifting the blockade in conjunction with a nuclear deal framework.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["0x4d0c4865bdecc5f797","0x3094a2b925483a06aa","0x0549eb8269570dea33","KXTRUMPSAY-26JUN15-E","KXTRUMPPHOTO-26JUN14"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPSAY","publishedAt":"2026-06-12T06:03:10.885Z"},{"slug":"project-freedom-surge-signals-imminent-executive-action-84d14f","title":"Project Freedom Surge Signals Imminent Executive Action","detail":"The market saw a massive repricing of a contract related to a Trump executive action ('Project Freedom'), jumping from 13¢ to 100¢. This near-certainty event signals a high-impact policy announcement expected by June 30. The sudden move indicates strong insider or event-driven buying.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["P | 0xdfd4d487d004c26649","K | KXTRUMPATTEND"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump project freedom\" ","publishedAt":"2026-06-11T06:02:26.881Z"},{"slug":"iran-tensions-at-a-boiling-point-as-airspace-closure-imminent-dcdd80","title":"Iran Tensions at a Boiling Point as Airspace Closure Imminent","detail":"The market is pricing in a near-certainty (100¢) that Iran will close its airspace by June 8, reflecting extreme geopolitical risk. High-volume contracts on diplomatic meetings and peace deals are also active, but the bearish risk is clearly priced in the near term.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["P | 0xc88e812beb27442554","P | 0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1","P | 0xa4c71c6f43ceb1dec4"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXHORMUZNORM","publishedAt":"2026-06-11T06:02:26.881Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-leads-the-ai-model-race-as-gpt-5-6-release-looms-2611a4","title":"Anthropic Leads the AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Looms","detail":"The market for the best AI model by end of June has solidified around Anthropic (86¢), while contracts on a GPT-5.6 release before July 31 are trading at 97%. This points to a major inflection point in the AI wars, with traders betting on a direct competitive response from Anthropic.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["P | 0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac","P | 0xadc76ee95ed51195ce","P | 0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"best ai model june\" ","publishedAt":"2026-06-11T06:02:26.881Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-dominates-ai-model-race-as-gpt-5-6-release-nears-d05da5","title":"Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears","detail":"Anthropic's Claude is now a 92¢ favorite to be the best AI model at end of June, while GPT-5.6 release odds jumped 7¢ to 24% for a June 15 launch. The AI benchmark leaderboard is shifting rapidly.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac","0x0bd1b836a2494f80aa","0x1ff94ce9a874202523","KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN0"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXLLM1-26JUN13-ANTH","publishedAt":"2026-06-10T06:03:50.040Z"},{"slug":"iran-nuclear-deal-odds-jump-as-diplomacy-intensifies-b5f253","title":"Iran Nuclear Deal Odds Jump as Diplomacy Intensifies","detail":"The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 remains robust at 68¢, while the 'nuclear deal by June 30' contract gained 1¢ to 20¢. Heightened diplomatic signals are drawing trader attention to the Strait of Hormuz markets.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x9769f78cbc95a5ed11","0x182390641d3b1b47cc","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","0x4d0c4865bdecc5f797"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran nuclear deal\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-10T06:03:50.040Z"},{"slug":"oil-bears-in-control-crude-downside-bets-surge-d34982","title":"Oil Bears in Control: Crude Downside Bets Surge","detail":"Traders are aggressively pricing in a crude oil selloff, with the 'WTI below $85 by June 30' contract jumping 13¢ to 78¢. The USO ETF is down 2.66% today, confirming bearish sentiment despite ongoing Middle East tensions.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0xa4c71c6f43ceb1dec4","0xbaf252e7ac957d6636","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","KXWTIW-26JUN1214-T85"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"crude oil june\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-10T06:03:50.040Z"},{"slug":"midterm-election-odds-shift-democrats-favored-for-house-senate-toss-up-b8c621","title":"Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up","detail":"Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXGOVCA-26-XBEC","0x9eb4dd944ea38e1259"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election house\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-10T06:03:50.040Z"},{"slug":"nhl-stanley-cup-finals-see-massive-swing-hurricanes-surge-20-1ffb28","title":"NHL Stanley Cup Finals See Massive Swing: Hurricanes Surge 20¢","detail":"The Carolina Hurricanes jumped 20¢ to 57¢ in the Stanley Cup champion market, while the Vegas Golden Knights collapsed 21¢ to 41¢. Series momentum has clearly shifted after a pivotal Game 5 result.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["0xf7b5491e70b477d451","0x89389a6b1439856a8d","KXNBAGAME-26JUN13NYK","0x3dbeee81527f6d4868"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNHLGAME-26JUN11VGK","publishedAt":"2026-06-10T06:03:50.040Z"},{"slug":"iran-airspace-closure-contracts-spike-to-100-as-conflict-fears-peak-1f5fd7","title":"Iran Airspace Closure Contracts Spike to 100¢ as Conflict Fears Peak","detail":"Multiple Polymarket contracts for Iran closing its airspace surged to 100¢, reflecting a market consensus that a military confrontation is imminent. This has broad implications for oil prices, global risk appetite, and regional stability.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0xc88e812beb27442554","0xd9933a54c518e77305","0x51a7c8afb7a0e09b8b","0x86c4455035d81c5121","0xb196a122933da9aff6"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"iran airspace closure\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-08T06:03:03.403Z"},{"slug":"oil-contracts-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruption-priced-in-1ecd5c","title":"Oil Contracts Surge as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Priced In","detail":"Crude oil prediction markets are repricing sharply higher, with the probability of oil hitting $105 by end of June rising 15¢ to 43¢. The Strait of Hormuz return-to-normal contracts remain deeply out of the money, confirming a supply disruption premium is being built in.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["0x86c4455035d81c5121","0x82033ffc908562008e","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21","0xba8af64c1b08f322ca"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWTIMAX","publishedAt":"2026-06-08T06:03:03.403Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-ai-release-timeline-accelerates-claude-5-and-mythos-contracts-surge-b06dc3","title":"Anthropic AI Release Timeline Accelerates: Claude 5 and Mythos Contracts Surge","detail":"Polymarket contracts for Anthropic's next-generation AI models—Claude 5 and Mythos—saw massive gains of 34¢ and 21¢ respectively, signaling an imminent release. This is a major catalyst for the AI sector and related tech investments.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["0x562d8e6be61af9176d","0xcfd48c874ae1760c1e","0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac","0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb","0x734c6c32a62f8a2703"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"anthropic claude release\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-08T06:03:03.403Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-trump-china-visit-at-74-by-may-highest-volume-geopolitical-e-3","title":"Trump-China Visit at 74% by May — Highest-Volume Geopolitical Event","detail":"Prediction markets price elevated probabilities for a near-term Trump visit to China, reflecting trader consensus that personal diplomacy will precede hardline trade actions.","topic":"china","relatedTickers":["0xcd215b8330a35098a1","0xaaacff0f7424b38e61","0x3d7540115867219195"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump china visit\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-08T03:01:55.872Z"},{"slug":"iran-peace-deal-odds-collapse-as-june-deadlines-loom-e6d3ba","title":"Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom","detail":"The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.","topic":"iran","relatedTickers":["0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48","0x20af55ab35186377b8","0x3094a2b925483a06aa","0x348cd9adf4f6855f58","0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Iran peace deal\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-07T06:04:16.803Z"},{"slug":"california-la-primaries-heat-up-hilton-surges-pratt-fades-11eee1","title":"California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades","detail":"The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26","0x583a50565864766017","KXGOVCA-26-XBEC","0x5a965e943de13a4bde","0x694595d0a008f10e47"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26J","publishedAt":"2026-06-07T06:04:16.803Z"},{"slug":"ai-model-race-intensifies-claude-mythos-release-jumps-25-cents-0d7852","title":"AI Model Race Intensifies: Claude Mythos Release Jumps 25 Cents","detail":"Anthropic is the favorite for best AI model in June at 85 cents, but the big story is the Claude Mythos release timeline. The market for a Mythos release by June 15 surged 25 cents to 46 cents, while the Claude 5 release by June 30 rose 8 cents to 37 cents. This signals a major AI release cycle is imminent.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["0xe5ed42ed30993fde9f","0xcfd48c874ae1760c1e","0x562d8e6be61af9176d","0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac","0x734c6c32a62f8a2703"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Claude Mythos\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-07T06:04:16.803Z"},{"slug":"ukraine-ceasefire-odds-sink-december-target-loses-4-cents-5ca3b4","title":"Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents","detail":"The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.","topic":"ukraine","relatedTickers":["0x5c19f205507ce03ff5","0x4167e22670f31e5f93","0x9772347ce628f4427a","0xa57a027158ce73973c"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Ukraine ceasefire\"","publishedAt":"2026-06-07T06:04:16.803Z"},{"slug":"california-governor-primary-shakes-up-hilton-soars-steyer-crashes-458108","title":"California Governor Primary Shakes Up: Hilton Soars, Steyer Crashes","detail":"Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢. The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["0x583a50565864766017","0x583a50565864766017","0xa68b0a77955777a56a","KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26","KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26","publishedAt":"2026-06-06T06:02:21.086Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect 0xa70fc3695a65833b91","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xa70fc3695a65833b91"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}