{"highlights":[{"slug":"oil-surge-drives-wti-price-ceiling-action-49c9ef","title":"Oil Surge Drives WTI Price Ceiling Action","detail":"WTI crude oil jumped 3.15% today, pushing spot to $131.9 and reigniting interest in oil price ceiling markets. The highest volume contract is the $115 call (37¢), while the $140 call (19¢) offers a leveraged upside bet. Traders are watching OPEC+ signals and geopolitical tensions.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T14","KXAAAGASM-26AUG31-4","KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-2"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"oil price ceiling\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"dodgers-top-sports-volume-as-mlb-championship-market-heats-up-1097a7","title":"Dodgers Top Sports Volume as MLB Championship Market Heats Up","detail":"The Los Angeles Dodgers are the heaviest traded sports contract, with 40¢ implied probability to win the 2026 World Series. Volume is massive at 239,898, making it the single most traded prediction market overall. The Brewers and Phillies also draw interest but at lower probabilities.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMLB-26-LAD","KXMLB-26-MIL","KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26SCUR","KXMLBNL-26-LAD"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXMLB-26-LAD","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-range-bound-but-eth-strength-points-to-altcoin-season-7391e1","title":"Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season","detail":"Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T62","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AU","KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26AU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"ethereum price end of month\"","publishedAt":"2026-08-02T06:05:27.809Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-path-remains-hawkish-hike-odds-near-50-e81a1c","title":"Fed Rate Path Remains Hawkish; Hike Odds Near 50%","detail":"The market is pricing a 52% chance of a 25bp hike at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, while a cut is virtually off the table at 2¢. Bond yields are steady, but the debate over the terminal rate continues to dominate macro trading.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXLARGECUT-26","KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT-2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-favored-to-keep-house-senate-battlegrounds-tight-3d8c2c","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Keep House; Senate Battlegrounds Tight","detail":"The market gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaining the House, while Senate control is a toss‑up (45% Democrat, 55% Republican). Mega‑volume markets like the Michigan Senate primary (410k volume) and the Florida gubernatorial primary (166k volume) highlight intense intraparty competition.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-D","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"trump-insurrection-act-odds-rise-political-risk-premium-builds-6d2e58","title":"Trump Insurrection Act Odds Rise; Political Risk Premium Builds","detail":"The contract 'Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?' sits at 59¢, a level not seen before. Combined with a 16% chance of impeachment/removal, traders are pricing in significant political uncertainty around Trump’s second term.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXINSURRECTION-29","KXTRUMPREMOVE","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT","KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-37"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXINSURRECTION-29","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"ai-leadership-race-anthropic-leads-openai-in-year-end-forecast-ea9cd3","title":"AI Leadership Race: Anthropic Leads OpenAI in Year‑End Forecast","detail":"The 'Best AI on Dec 31, 2026' market sees Anthropic (Claude) at 63¢, ahead of OpenAI (14¢) and Google (10¢). Meanwhile, GPT‑6 release odds are at 67% for November, signaling a potential shift in the competitive balance.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26DEC31-A","KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01","KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26A","KXB200WS-26AUG07-4.0","KXCLAUDE-MYTH-27JAN0"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"AI model\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-31T06:02:54.960Z"},{"slug":"michigan-senate-primary-heats-up-el-sayed-heavy-favorite-971f88","title":"Michigan Senate primary heats up – El-Sayed heavy favorite","detail":"Abdul El-Sayed holds 83¢ to be the Democratic nominee for Michigan Senate, with Haley Stevens at 16¢. Volume on these two markets exceeds 800k, making it the most traded election contest today.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXMISENATE-26","KXMCMORROWENDORSE-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Michigan Senate primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"rocket-classic-golf-dominates-prediction-market-volume-1a78f3","title":"Rocket Classic golf dominates prediction market volume","detail":"The Rocket Classic golf tournament has over 100 individual winner markets, with total volume exceeding 60M. John Parry at 0¢ and Jake Knapp at 3¢ see the heaviest betting, despite near-zero probabilities for most golfers.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXPGATOUR-ROC26-JPAR","KXPGATOUR-ROC26-JKNA","KXPGAR1LEAD-ROC26-JK","KXPGATOP20-ROC26-JKO"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Rocket Classic\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"trump-say-markets-near-99-probability-on-common-phrases-df7900","title":"Trump 'say' markets near 99¢ probability on common phrases","detail":"Numerous Trump mention contracts are trading at 99¢—almost certain he will say words like 'Windmill', 'Autopen', and 'Kamala' before Aug 3. Volume is high, reflecting interest in Trump's speaking style.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-W","KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-A","KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-K","KXNEXTAG-29-TBLA"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPSAY-26AUG03-W","publishedAt":"2026-07-30T06:04:49.817Z"},{"slug":"oil-crashes-9-5-largest-market-move-of-the-day-63fd49","title":"Oil Crashes 9.5%: Largest Market Move of the Day","detail":"Oil prices collapsed 9.48%, the biggest single-day drop in the dataset, signaling a potential demand shock or sudden shift in supply expectations. This dwarfs all other market moves.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T120","KXAAAGASW-26AUG03-4.060"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"oil price crash demand\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"recession-worries-shift-to-2027-as-fed-holds-firm-3bd7a3","title":"Recession Worries Shift to 2027 as Fed Holds Firm","detail":"While 2026 recession odds sit at just 9¢, the market is pricing a 2027 recession at 41¢. This split-sentiment is a key warning for macro traders, especially as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady.","topic":"recession","relatedTickers":["KXRECSSNBER-26","KXRECSSNBER-27","KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"recession fed rate 2027\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-market-paints-bleak-picture-43-odds-of-falling-below-50k-2b311b","title":"Bitcoin Market Paints Bleak Picture: 43% Odds of Falling Below $50k","detail":"Bitcoin ETF fell 1.5%, but the prediction markets show a massive divergence: 43% odds of dropping below $50k vs just 3% odds of a breakout above $200k by 2027. The bearish case is being priced in.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-50","KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B22"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTC2026200-27JAN01","publishedAt":"2026-07-29T06:10:35.448Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-hike-odds-rise-to-50-for-september-e1696b","title":"Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise to 50% for September","detail":"Fed rate cut expectations are shifting: markets now price a 50% chance of a hike in September, while the probability of any cut before year-end remains low. CPI data and emergency meeting probabilities are key signals.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION","KXEMERCUTS","KXRATECUTCOUNT","KXCPIYOY"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-july-31-expiry-heavy-volume-around-64k-67k-6caaa1","title":"Bitcoin July 31 Expiry: Heavy Volume Around $64K-$67K","detail":"Bitcoin price markets are heavily traded with July 31 expiry. The $64,000-$67,000 range is the most active, while the probability of crossing $67,500 is only 9%. Ethereum's $2,000 threshold is also in play. Crypto ETFs are slightly down.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD","KXBTCMAXMON","KXBTCMINMON","KXETHMAXMON","IBIT","ETHE"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBTCD","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"2026-election-markets-donalds-leads-fl-gop-house-control-favors-democrats-ce4965","title":"2026 Election Markets: Donalds Leads FL GOP, House Control Favors Democrats","detail":"2026 election markets are active, with Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary heavily favoring Byron Donalds. Michigan's Senate primary has Abdul El-Sayed leading. House control is likely Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up. The balance of power combos offer granular exposure.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXGOVFLNOMR","KXVOTEPRIMARY","KXSENATEMID","CONTROLH","CONTROLS","KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO","GOVPARTYOH"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-28T06:02:40.956Z"},{"slug":"trump-fox-news-mention-market-draws-massive-volume-617ddd","title":"Trump 'Fox News' Mention Market Draws Massive Volume","detail":"The market on whether President Trump will say 'Fox News' before August 1st is the second most active prediction market in the dataset with over 150,000 in volume. A 54¢ price suggests traders see this as more likely than not, reflecting intense interest in monitoring his public commentary.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26","KXTRUMPTIME-26AUG01-","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26AUG0"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump say fox news\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"michigan-democratic-primary-heats-up-for-senate-and-governor-904998","title":"Michigan Democratic Primary Heats Up for Senate and Governor","detail":"The market for Abdul El-Sayed (62¢) to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is one of the most liquid election markets. Simultaneously, the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary shows Perry Johnson at 9¢ with solid volume. These primaries will set the stage for critical midterm battles.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","KXGOVMINOMR-26-PJ","KXGOVMINOMR-26-JJ"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"michigan primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"ai-model-and-gpu-markets-signal-heightened-competition-d88bae","title":"AI Model and GPU Markets Signal Heightened Competition","detail":"Markets for the top AI model in July 2026 and NVIDIA GPU compute prices are drawing significant attention. The GPT-6 release market (58¢ before Oct) and the Claude Opus debut score market are active, reflecting intense trader focus on the rapidly evolving AI landscape.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXTOPMODEL-26JUL31-C","KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01","KXLLM1-26DEC31-A","KXH200MS-26JUL-5.000"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"ai model\" and \"nvidia compute price\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T06:03:26.149Z"},{"slug":"2026-03-30-risk-off-day-vix-surges-10-while-s-p-drops-2-2-markets-prici-0","title":"Risk-Off Day: VIX Surges 10% While S&P Drops 2.2% — Markets Pricing Hawkish Fed","detail":"Markets remain risk-off with elevated VIX and weak equities as prediction markets increasingly price in zero Fed rate cuts for 2026 and sticky inflation above 4%, constraining policy flexibility.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["0xd4e77ba6f29fc09350","0x36e8ca24d2a13435f5","0xfdc73f10edf0266756","0x1f61db83c47fc787f4"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cuts 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-27T03:01:38.383Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}