{"highlights":[{"slug":"traders-see-fed-on-hold-for-july-but-september-looms-cf70ef","title":"Traders See Fed on Hold for July, but September Looms","detail":"The Fed holds steady at 66¢ for July, but the September meeting is a toss-up with a 47¢ probability of a 25bps hike. The market consensus is that the Fed will pause in the near term, but the path forward is uncertain.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXFED-26JUL-T3.75","KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"},{"slug":"trump-s-2028-run-and-midterm-control-priced-in-894a13","title":"Trump's 2028 Run and Midterm Control Priced In","detail":"J.D. Vance is the 40¢ frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination, while Democrats are slight underdogs to hold the Senate in 2026 at 44¢. The midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of political power.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","CONTROLS-2026-D","CONTROLH-2026-D","SENATEME-26-D","KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"South Carolina Senate primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"},{"slug":"trump-s-world-cup-attendance-almost-certain-market-bets-on-resignation-doubt-111ba1","title":"Trump’s World Cup Attendance Almost Certain; Market Bets on Resignation Doubt","detail":"The market is pricing a 94¢ probability that Trump will attend the 2026 World Cup Final, but also gives a 19¢ chance he resigns before his term ends. Tracking his Truth Social activity and approval ratings are the key sub-markets.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXTRUMPRESIGN","KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-4","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL1"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPRESIGN","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"},{"slug":"crypto-markets-show-bullish-bitcoin-positioning-with-ethereum-outperformance-682264","title":"Crypto Markets Show Bullish Bitcoin Positioning with Ethereum Outperformance","detail":"Crypto prediction markets show heightened activity and bullish positioning for Bitcoin's month-end price, with key contracts implying strong conviction above $65,000.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","ETHE","KXBTCD-26JUL1717-T64","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price prediction july\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-12T06:04:27.222Z"},{"slug":"trump-centric-markets-dominate-political-trading-volume-5dd5d0","title":"Trump-Centric Markets Dominate Political Trading Volume","detail":"Micro-markets on Donald Trump dominate political prediction volume today, with near-certainty pricing on his World Cup attendance and specific phrases, while the 2028 Republican primary remains wide open.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL13-N","KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26","KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN0","KXTRUMPPHOTO-26JUL12"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPATTEND","publishedAt":"2026-07-12T06:04:27.222Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-markets-surge-as-tournament-reaches-knockout-stage-1bf962","title":"World Cup Markets Surge as Tournament Reaches Knockout Stage","detail":"2026 World Cup markets are the most active sports category with deep liquidity across tournament winner, match outcomes, and player prop bets, reflecting intense trader interest in the upcoming semi-finals.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-GB","KXWCADVANCE-26JUL14F","KXWCGOAL-26JUL14FRAE","KXWCMATCHUP-26FIN-FR"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup semi final predictions\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-12T06:04:27.222Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-knockout-rounds-explode-massive-volume-on-argentina-messi-props-9eff21","title":"World Cup Knockout Rounds Explode: Massive Volume on Argentina, Messi Props","detail":"Knockout-stage World Cup matches (Argentina-Switzerland, France-Spain) plus tournament winner and player prop markets are trading with exceptional volume—over 8M contracts on the Conor McGregor fight, 2.5M on World Cup futures, and 2.2M on today's match advances. The sheer breadth of liquid markets offers granular hedging opportunities.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCADVANCE","KXWCGAME","KXWCGOAL","KXMENWORLDCUP","KXWCMATCHUP","KXUFCFIGHT"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWCADVANCE-26JUL11A && sf book KXWCGAME-26JUL11ARGS","publishedAt":"2026-07-11T06:04:48.954Z"},{"slug":"fed-on-hold-78-probability-of-no-rate-move-at-july-meeting-ae59ce","title":"Fed On Hold: 78¢ Probability of No Rate Move at July Meeting","detail":"Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move. Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢. The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXRECSSNBER-26","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.6"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed hold july 2026\" && sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-11T06:04:48.954Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterms-democrats-heavy-house-favorites-senate-toss-up-a3d9a2","title":"2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up","detail":"Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-D","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","SENATEME-26-D","KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","KXPRESNOMD-28-GN","KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 senate control\" && sf book CONTROLS-2026-D","publishedAt":"2026-07-11T06:04:48.954Z"},{"slug":"oil-and-natural-gas-plunge-uso-3-76-ung-6-63-8082d9","title":"Oil and Natural Gas Plunge: USO -3.76%, UNG -6.63%","detail":"Crude oil and natural gas prices suffered sharp declines today, with USO falling 3.76% and UNG losing 6.63%. This rout is likely driven by demand worries and oversupply, impacting energy-related prediction markets such as WTI price targets.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","UNG","KXWTIMAX","KXWTIMIN","KXBRENTMON"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"USO price drop\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-10T06:07:13.409Z"},{"slug":"ai-model-race-claude-leads-gpt-6-expected-by-2027-dc9bec","title":"AI Model Race: Claude Leads, GPT-6 Expected by 2027","detail":"Anthropic's Claude is heavily favored as the best AI model in July 2026 (96¢), and OpenAI's GPT-6 release before 2027 is priced at 82¢. These markets reflect intensifying competition and investor focus on AI leadership.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUL13-ANTH","KXGPT-OPEN-27JAN01","KXCODEAI-26JUL31-CHA","KXTOPMODEL-26JUL13-C"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXLLM1-26JUL13-ANTH","publishedAt":"2026-07-10T06:07:13.409Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-decision-pause-priced-in-tail-risk-on-cuts-c097f1","title":"Fed Rate Decision: Pause Priced In, Tail Risk on Cuts","detail":"The July FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 0bps hike (85¢). However, a surprise 25bps cut is priced at just 1¢, attracting speculative volume. CPI and unemployment data releases will be key to any repricing.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.6","KXU3-26JUL-T4.0","KXFED-26JUL-T3.25"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed july 2026 decision\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-10T06:07:13.409Z"},{"slug":"oil-prices-surge-4-as-energy-markets-price-in-sustained-70-crude-db54a8","title":"Oil Prices Surge 4% as Energy Markets Price in Sustained $70+ Crude","detail":"WTI crude oil rallied 4% today, with prediction markets showing 84% probability of prices staying above $70.49 through July 10. The energy sector (XLE) gained 1.87%, while stock markets were mixed. Traders are increasingly pricing in a meaningful chance of a major supply disruption, with the $115+ spike contract for year-end trading at 31¢.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTI-26JUL1014-T70.","KXWTI-26JUL1014-T71.","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"wti oil price\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T06:05:34.793Z"},{"slug":"fed-stay-or-cut-market-hawks-win-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-8e3c61","title":"Fed Stay-or-Cut: Market Hawks Win as Rate Cut Hopes Fade","detail":"The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in July (79¢ for no hike) with the market pricing zero rate cuts for all of 2026 at 76¢. Core CPI expectations remain sticky at 77% probability of rising more than 0.1% in June, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders should watch the KXFEDDECISION series for July and September meetings.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXCPICORE-26JUN-T0.1","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.6"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"fed rate cut\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T06:05:34.793Z"},{"slug":"democrats-heavy-house-favorites-as-senate-battle-tightens-df8ad9","title":"Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens","detail":"2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEMI-26-D","SENATEME-26-D","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 election\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-09T06:05:34.793Z"},{"slug":"fed-set-to-hold-steady-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-for-2026-60589e","title":"Fed Set to Hold Steady as Rate Cut Hopes Fade for 2026","detail":"The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to hold rates at the July 2026 meeting (84¢ probability), and the market sees zero rate cuts through December as the base case at 75¢. This hawkish posture supports the dollar and bond yields while challenging risk assets.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8","KXFED-26JUL-T3.50"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-07T06:02:25.685Z"},{"slug":"graham-platner-dominates-maine-senate-race-markets-as-democrats-best-hope-2a6a27","title":"Graham Platner Dominates Maine Senate Race Markets as Democrats' Best Hope","detail":"The Maine Senate race has become the most heavily traded individual election contract, with Graham Platner's dropout probability at just 8% (92¢ that he stays in). Democrats are slight favorites at 59¢, and the outcome is seen as a key battleground for Senate control (Republicans 57¢ to win the chamber).","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATEME-26-D","CONTROLH-2026-D"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Maine Senate race\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-07T06:02:25.685Z"},{"slug":"anthropic-widens-lead-in-ai-model-race-ahead-of-openai-s-gpt-5-6-release-b3e7f3","title":"Anthropic Widens Lead in AI Model Race Ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Release","detail":"Anthropic's models are trading at 83¢ to be crowned 'Best AI in July 2026', while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 release has a 73% probability of launching within the next 4 days. The competition is fierce and directly relevant to AI infrastructure spending, compute pricing, and tech sector valuations.","topic":"ai-tech","relatedTickers":["KXLLM1-26JUL31-A","KXGPT-OPENB-26JUL10","KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26DEC0","KXH200WS-26JUL10-2.5"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXLLM1-26JUL13-ANTH","publishedAt":"2026-07-07T06:02:25.685Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-2026-and-lebron-james-dominate-sports-betting-markets-b1bfd1","title":"World Cup 2026 and LeBron James Dominate Sports Betting Markets","detail":"2026 World Cup and LeBron James next-team markets dominate sports betting with over $6M in volume. France leads at 34¢, LeBron's team choice has active contracts across multiple price points.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCROUND-26FINAL-FR","KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","KXWCGOALLEADER-26-KM"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"world cup\" && sf book KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR","publishedAt":"2026-07-06T06:03:18.904Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-markets-show-bullish-near-term-but-bearish-year-end-divergence-07c5b0","title":"Bitcoin Markets Show Bullish Near-Term But Bearish Year-End Divergence","detail":"Bitcoin prediction markets show 74% probability of BTC above $65,000 by month-end, but year-end contracts indicate 62% chance of sub-$55,000 levels. ETH shows bearish divergence.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-55","KXBTCD-26JUL1017-T62","KXETHMINY-27JAN01-15"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price prediction\" && sf book KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","publishedAt":"2026-07-06T06:03:18.904Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}