{"highlights":[{"slug":"markets-expect-fed-to-hold-steady-but-bond-yields-rise-6f75b3","title":"Markets Expect Fed to Hold Steady, But Bond Yields Rise","detail":"The markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed hold in July, but bond yields are rising, indicating a 'higher for longer' rate environment.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"oil-and-natural-gas-surge-gold-rallies-on-safe-haven-demand-d4749f","title":"Oil and Natural Gas Surge, Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand","detail":"Oil (USO +2.21%) and Natural Gas (UNG +1.92%) are surging, with gold also rising, signaling a potential commodity-driven inflation scare.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["USO","UNG","GLD","KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T20"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"lebron-james-next-team-bets-dominate-sports-markets-533385","title":"LeBron James' Next Team Bets Dominate Sports Markets","detail":"LeBron James' free agency is dominating sports prediction markets with millions in volume across contracts for his next team, contract value, and the reporting outlet.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26","KXNBANEXTTEAMOUTLET-26"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXNEXTTEAMNBA-26LJAM","publishedAt":"2026-07-23T06:07:12.187Z"},{"slug":"fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-in-july-cpi-data-in-focus-a8d338","title":"Fed expected to hold rates steady in July, CPI data in focus","detail":"The Fed July meeting is approaching, with markets pricing a 93% probability of no rate change. The 25bps hike contract is at 5¢, reflecting low odds. CPI data will be key to watch.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFED-26JUL-T3.50","KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.4"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-price-settlement-markets-see-heavy-volume-64k-level-key-c503b6","title":"Bitcoin price settlement markets see heavy volume, $64k level key","detail":"Bitcoin price markets are highly active, with over 90,000 volume in the $64,000 bucket. The IBIT ETF is up 1.85%, and monthly trimmed mean contracts show bullish bias. Key levels to watch.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price jul 24 2026\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"oil-prices-rally-wti-crude-weekly-contracts-active-near-80-1f584c","title":"Oil prices rally, WTI crude weekly contracts active near $80","detail":"Oil prices are rising, with USO up 1.42%. WTI crude weekly contracts show activity around $80/bbl. The December maximum oil price market is at 35¢ for $115. Watch for catalyst from Fed and Middle East tensions.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B79","KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXBRENTW-26JUL2417-T"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXWTIW-26JUL2414-B79","publishedAt":"2026-07-21T06:03:28.856Z"},{"slug":"oil-surges-3-7-supply-fears-drive-wti-futures-activity-1c8254","title":"Oil Surges 3.7%: Supply Fears Drive WTI Futures Activity","detail":"USO rose to $123.75 (+3.7%) as oil markets react to geopolitical tensions. Prediction markets show increased probability of WTI hitting $115 by year-end (36¢ on KXWTIMAX). Traders should monitor Strait of Hormuz transit data.","topic":"oil","relatedTickers":["KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T11","KXWTIW-26JUL2414-T94","KXBRENTMON-26JUL3117","KXHORMUZAVG"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"WTI crude oil\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-19T06:01:52.670Z"},{"slug":"2026-midterm-elections-high-volume-action-on-house-and-senate-control-53501a","title":"2026 Midterm Elections: High-Volume Action on House and Senate Control","detail":"Democrats favored to win House at 82¢ (KXCONTROLH) while Senate is a toss-up. Key Senate races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) see heavy trading. Primary markets are also active with high-volume contracts on Florida governor, Wisconsin governor, and Michigan Senate primaries.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","SENATETX-26-R","SENATENE-26-DOSB","SENATEME-26-R","KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD","KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON","KXSENATEMID-26-AELS"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"2026 senate race\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-19T06:01:52.670Z"},{"slug":"fed-rate-decision-market-overwhelmingly-expects-no-change-in-july-5380be","title":"Fed Rate Decision: Market Overwhelmingly Expects No Change in July","detail":"The July FOMC meeting is priced at 94% probability of no rate change (94¢). However, the VIX surged 5.15% signaling rising uncertainty. Traders are watching CPI data and the 19% probability of a rate cut before 2027.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL","KXRATECUT-26DEC31","KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC","KXCPINDEX","KXPCECORE"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL","publishedAt":"2026-07-19T06:01:52.670Z"},{"slug":"trump-tariffs-high-probability-of-new-trade-actions-7e7e78","title":"Trump Tariffs: High Probability of New Trade Actions","detail":"The market gives 83% chance (83¢) that Trump will impose new or increased tariffs soon (KXNEWTARIFFS). This has broad implications for inflation, Fed policy, and global trade. Trump's approval rating is weak, with 20% chance of resignation before term ends.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUL-A","KXTRUMPRESIGN","KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT","KXSAVEACT","KXELECTIONEMERGENCY"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Trump tariffs\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-19T06:01:52.670Z"},{"slug":"world-cup-final-dominates-prediction-markets-with-150-contracts-153686","title":"World Cup Final Dominates Prediction Markets with 150+ Contracts","detail":"The World Cup final is the most active event on Kalshi, with over 150 markets and 40M+ in volume. Key contracts include exact scorelines and the Golden Ball winner.","topic":"other","relatedTickers":["KXWCSCORE-26JUL19ESP","KXWCAWARD-26GBALL-LM","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"World Cup final Argentina Spain\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-17T06:02:09.633Z"},{"slug":"fed-hold-at-96-july-meeting-the-biggest-market-on-kalshi-f7362d","title":"Fed Hold at 96¢ – July Meeting the Biggest Market on Kalshi","detail":"The market for a 0bp rate hike at the July 2026 Fed meeting is at 96¢ with over 1.1M volume. No cut or hike is priced in. This is the single most liquid contract on Kalshi.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-25","KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-0"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","publishedAt":"2026-07-16T06:05:05.495Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-price-markets-clustering-around-62k-64k-for-july-17-d43347","title":"Bitcoin Price Markets Clustering Around $62K–$64K for July 17","detail":"Bitcoin price prediction markets for July 17 show a cluster around $62,000–$64,000. The IBIT ETF is up 3.9% today. Monthly trimmed mean above $67,500 is at 49¢.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["KXBTCD-26JUL1717-T64","KXBTCD-26JUL1717-T63","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price jul 17\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-16T06:05:05.495Z"},{"slug":"trump-markets-high-volume-world-cup-attendance-at-93-504a0f","title":"Trump Markets High Volume – World Cup Attendance at 93¢","detail":"Trump-related markets span attendance, speeches, policy, and office tenure. The highest volume is for Trump attending the World Cup Final (93¢, 776k vol). The speech mention series has dozens of contracts at extreme prices.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL","KXTRUMPOUT27"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"trump world cup\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-16T06:05:05.495Z"},{"slug":"2026-us-midterm-primaries-heat-up-michigan-senate-race-draws-record-volume-5b331e","title":"2026 US Midterm Primaries Heat Up – Michigan Senate Race Draws Record Volume","detail":"The Michigan Senate Democratic primary has become the most actively traded election market, with Abdul El-Sayed leading at 67¢ and Haley Stevens at 31¢. Overall, Democrats are favored to keep the House (81¢) while the Senate remains a toss-up (Republicans 54¢). The SAVE Act (voter ID) languishes at 9¢.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE","CONTROLH-2026-D","CONTROLS-2026-R","KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Michigan Senate primary\" && sf book KXSENATEMID-26-AELS","publishedAt":"2026-07-15T06:07:29.874Z"},{"slug":"bitcoin-surges-3-9-july-short-term-contracts-see-heavy-volume-9da2d8","title":"Bitcoin Surges 3.9% – July Short-Term Contracts See Heavy Volume","detail":"Bitcoin's ETF (IBIT) gained 3.9% today, driving active trading in near-term prediction contracts. The Jul 17 price contract at $64,000 (58¢) and the monthly trimmed-mean above $65,000 (94¢) are the most liquid. Year-end $139,999 contracts remain deeply out-of-the-money at 5¢.","topic":"bitcoin","relatedTickers":["IBIT","KXBTCD-26JUL1717-T64","KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JU","KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-13","KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"bitcoin price Jul 17\" && sf book KXBTCD-26JUL1717-T64","publishedAt":"2026-07-15T06:07:29.874Z"},{"slug":"trump-world-cup-attendance-near-certain-administration-turnover-markets-heat-up-3a092e","title":"Trump World Cup Attendance Near Certain, Administration Turnover Markets Heat Up","detail":"Trump's attendance at the 2026 World Cup Final is priced at 94¢ (vol 549,594), the most liquid Trump market. Meanwhile, markets on administration departures (Kash Patel out as FBI Director before 2027 at 49¢) and potential resignations are drawing volume. The SAVE Act remains a long shot at 9¢.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04","KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26","KXKASHOUT-26JUL-26DE","KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL20-S"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"Trump World Cup\" && sf book KXTRUMPATTEND","publishedAt":"2026-07-15T06:07:29.874Z"},{"slug":"traders-see-fed-on-hold-for-july-but-september-looms-cf70ef","title":"Traders See Fed on Hold for July, but September Looms","detail":"The Fed holds steady at 66¢ for July, but the September meeting is a toss-up with a 47¢ probability of a 25bps hike. The market consensus is that the Fed will pause in the near term, but the path forward is uncertain.","topic":"fed-rate","relatedTickers":["KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","KXFED-26JUL-T3.75","KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T4.2"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"},{"slug":"trump-s-2028-run-and-midterm-control-priced-in-894a13","title":"Trump's 2028 Run and Midterm Control Priced In","detail":"J.D. Vance is the 40¢ frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination, while Democrats are slight underdogs to hold the Senate in 2026 at 44¢. The midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of political power.","topic":"election-2026","relatedTickers":["KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV","CONTROLS-2026-D","CONTROLH-2026-D","SENATEME-26-D","KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY"],"suggestedAction":"sf query \"South Carolina Senate primary\"","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"},{"slug":"trump-s-world-cup-attendance-almost-certain-market-bets-on-resignation-doubt-111ba1","title":"Trump’s World Cup Attendance Almost Certain; Market Bets on Resignation Doubt","detail":"The market is pricing a 94¢ probability that Trump will attend the 2026 World Cup Final, but also gives a 19¢ chance he resigns before his term ends. Tracking his Truth Social activity and approval ratings are the key sub-markets.","topic":"trump","relatedTickers":["KXTRUMPATTEND","KXTRUMPRESIGN","KXAPRPOTUS-26JUL17-4","KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUL1"],"suggestedAction":"sf book KXTRUMPRESIGN","publishedAt":"2026-07-14T06:09:32.501Z"}],"total":20,"limit":20,"offset":0,"count":20,"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Inspect KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-"}],"related":[{"description":"Trade ideas","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/ideas"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"},{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"}]}}