{"generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","cached":true,"ageHours":17.1,"expired":false,"themes":[{"label":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","narrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","ideas":[{"id":"9a5c97e7-b629-4634-aef6-10496225d891","headline":"Buy Hormuz normalization: 54c deal odds vs 28c traffic lag","pitch":"The July 31 US-Iran peace deal contract jumped 15c to 54c while Strait of Hormuz normal-traffic by end-June sits at just 28c — a 26c contagion gap. R2 is already shifting regime from neutral to taker, confirming momentum. The diplomatic-meeting-by-June-30 contract at 64c for blockade lift further anchors the bull case. Buy R2 before the traffic contract catches up to deal odds.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","venue":"polymarket","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","currentPrice":47,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Strait of Hormuz normal traffic contract reaches 50c+","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."},{"ticker":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","currentPrice":56,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Strait of Hormuz normal traffic contract reaches 50c+","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"US-Iran diplomatic meeting confirmation or blockade-lift announcement by June 30","timeHorizon":"4-5 weeks","risk":"Talks collapse on nuclear enrichment terms; oil supply risk premium re-prices sharply higher","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"buy-hormuz-normalization-54c-deal-odds-vs-28c-traffic-lag-9a5c97e7","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","marketTitle":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"960a7e41-10d7-47ca-8653-7d3dd830b5fd","headline":"Sell oil above $100: bearish crude contracts now at 63c","pitch":"WTI crude falling to $80 by end of June is priced at 63c on R8, which is transitioning from taker to neutral — a regime exhaustion signal. Meanwhile the $95 May contract surged 33c to 72c on Iran détente news, confirming the directional shift. The $110 bull contract crashed 22c to 38c, validating the bearish supply narrative. Fade the crude bull case with R8 as the regime shift completes.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","currentPrice":56,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"WTI crude below $85 by end of June","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."},{"ticker":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","venue":"polymarket","title":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","currentPrice":53,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"WTI crude below $85 by end of June","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"Formal US-Iran de-escalation statement or OPEC+ supply response","timeHorizon":"3-5 weeks","risk":"Iran talks break down; Hormuz blockade tightens, oil spikes above $100","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"sell-oil-above-100-bearish-crude-contracts-now-at-63c-960a7e41","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","marketTitle":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"43fd70b8-5c0c-47c4-92e4-c72672f515e9","headline":"Contrarian: Gold to $4,650 still live at 56c amid dollar weakness","pitch":"R6 shows gold at $4,650 in May 2026 priced at 56c, shifting to taker regime with score 0.625 — momentum is accelerating. Iran détente reduces safe-haven demand but Fed leadership instability (Powell exit at 95c) and dollar uncertainty sustain gold's bid. The 56c price at taker-regime entry offers a 44c upside with a defined May catalyst window. Buy the regime shift in R6 as competing macro forces keep gold elevated.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","venue":"polymarket","title":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","currentPrice":53,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":3703,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gold closes above $4,650 in May 2026","checkDate":"2026-05-31","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"Powell departure confirmation or dollar index breakdown below key support","timeHorizon":"1 week","risk":"Iran deal fully materializes, risk-on crushes safe-haven demand and gold drops below $4,400","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"contrarian-gold-to-4650-still-live-at-56c-amid-dollar-weakne-43fd70b8","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":3703,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","marketTitle":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]},{"label":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","narrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","ideas":[{"id":"31d63d7a-e51e-4ef5-86e5-57be015df59e","headline":"12c cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi Bitcoin reserve at 19c","pitch":"X1 on Kalshi prices the US National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 at 19c while X2 on Polymarket prices the identical contract at 31c — a 12c gap at 0.95 confidence. This is the highest-confidence cross-venue arb in the dataset, well above the 5c signal threshold. Buy X1 on Kalshi, sell X2 on Polymarket simultaneously to lock in the 12c spread. Risk is execution timing and venue liquidity but confidence is near-maximum.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027","currentPrice":19,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."},{"ticker":"0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2","venue":"polymarket","title":"US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?","currentPrice":33,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."}],"catalyst":"Any executive order or Treasury announcement on Bitcoin reserve policy","timeHorizon":"1-2 days (arb capture)","risk":"Venue settlement rules differ; one contract resolves NO on technicality while other resolves YES","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"12c-cross-venue-arb-buy-kalshi-bitcoin-reserve-at-19c-31d63d7a","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Res","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Res","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","marketTitle":"Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"57927194-3567-4150-b7bc-836afde46834","headline":"Satoshi coins stay dormant: sell movement risk at 8c","pitch":"R3 shows Satoshi-moves-Bitcoin-in-2026 at 8c, transitioning from maker to neutral — liquidity is withdrawing, suggesting the 8c price is about to drift. MicroStrategy sell probabilities have been whipsawed (crashed 14c to 21c then surged 11c to 40c), but the Satoshi dormancy thesis is structurally independent and more stable. At 8c with a maker-to-neutral regime shift, the contract is mispriced low given the historical 17-year dormancy baseline. Buy the NO at 92c implied.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_no","markets":[{"ticker":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","currentPrice":8,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1893,"regime":"CRI 11.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":0,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Contract resolves NO (no Satoshi movement in 2026)","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."}],"catalyst":"No on-chain movement from Satoshi wallets through year-end","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Satoshi or estate moves coins for any reason; black swan key-recovery event","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"satoshi-coins-stay-dormant-sell-movement-risk-at-8c-57927194","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1893,"regime":"CRI 11.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":0,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c"},"execute":{"description":"Buy NO on Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","marketTitle":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","direction":"no","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]},{"label":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","narrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","ideas":[{"id":"2cc8072b-e5f0-4fa4-9194-debbb2c7ab1a","headline":"1477% IY on Congress veto override: carry trade at 10c","pitch":"L1 offers 1477% implied yield at 10c for a Congress veto override before 2027 — the highest IY in the legislative dataset by a factor of 10x. Powell's forced exit at 95c probability signals executive dominance, making a successful congressional override structurally unlikely, but the yield compensates massively for the tail risk. Pair with L2 at 27c (101% IY) as a hedge: buy L1 for yield, hold L2 as the longer-dated probability anchor. Net carry on the pair is extraordinary given the policy backdrop.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":12,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."}],"catalyst":"Trump vetoes major legislation (e.g., debt ceiling or Fed independence bill) triggering override attempt","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Republican Senate maintains party discipline; no override attempt materializes, L1 expires worthless","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"1477-iy-on-congress-veto-override-carry-trade-at-10c-2cc8072b","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","marketTitle":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"dd8621ef-5b8c-43c3-8253-aa99b92d7bb8","headline":"Insurrection Act invocation at 657% IY: policy tail hedge","pitch":"L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 20c with 657% implied yield — a fat-tailed policy risk that is systematically underpriced given the Powell exit signal and executive power consolidation narrative. L6 at 58c (27% IY) represents the longer-dated version, confirming markets do assign meaningful probability over a full term. The 38c gap between L5 and L6 implies near-term invocation is discounted, but the IY on L5 makes it a high-return carry position. Buy L5 as a leveraged policy hedge against executive escalation.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":19,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump formally invokes Insurrection Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":54,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump formally invokes Insurrection Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."}],"catalyst":"Domestic unrest, border emergency declaration, or federal law enforcement deployment order","timeHorizon":"6-12 months","risk":"No triggering event; executive uses other legal authorities instead; L5 expires at zero","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-invocation-at-657-iy-policy-tail-hedge-dd8621ef","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINSURRECTION-29-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]},{"label":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","narrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.","ideas":[{"id":"3f9c4350-2302-49de-8ee3-2a1abb8ef6f7","headline":"58c contagion lag: Democratic FL-23 lags CA-17 trigger by 78c","pitch":"C1 and C3 show Democratic House race triggers in CA-17 and CA-44 moving +78c delta while FL-23 Democratic contract sits at 82c — a -58c contagion gap. The uniform gap across 8 contract pairs (C1 through C8) at identical -58c magnitude signals a structural pricing inefficiency rather than noise. FL-23 at 82c should be re-rated toward trigger-implied fair value as election cycle information propagates. Buy the lagging FL-23 Democratic contract before contagion closes the gap.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26-D","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?: Democratic party","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":15,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":58,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"FL-23 Democratic contract reprices to 90c+, closing gap with trigger-implied fair value","checkDate":"2026-11-03","theme":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","themeNarrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts."}],"catalyst":"National Democratic polling shift or candidate fundraising data release updating cross-district models","timeHorizon":"Weeks to months (election cycle dependent)","risk":"FL-23 has genuine district-specific risk factors (incumbency, demographics) that justify the discount vs. CA safe seats","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSEFL23-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"58c-contagion-lag-democratic-fl-23-lags-ca-17-trigger-by-78c-3f9c4350","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":15,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":58,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","themeNarrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.","nextActions":{"inspect":null}}]}],"ideas":[{"id":"9a5c97e7-b629-4634-aef6-10496225d891","headline":"Buy Hormuz normalization: 54c deal odds vs 28c traffic lag","pitch":"The July 31 US-Iran peace deal contract jumped 15c to 54c while Strait of Hormuz normal-traffic by end-June sits at just 28c — a 26c contagion gap. R2 is already shifting regime from neutral to taker, confirming momentum. The diplomatic-meeting-by-June-30 contract at 64c for blockade lift further anchors the bull case. Buy R2 before the traffic contract catches up to deal odds.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","venue":"polymarket","title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","currentPrice":47,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Strait of Hormuz normal traffic contract reaches 50c+","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."},{"ticker":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","currentPrice":56,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Strait of Hormuz normal traffic contract reaches 50c+","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"US-Iran diplomatic meeting confirmation or blockade-lift announcement by June 30","timeHorizon":"4-5 weeks","risk":"Talks collapse on nuclear enrichment terms; oil supply risk premium re-prices sharply higher","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"buy-hormuz-normalization-54c-deal-odds-vs-28c-traffic-lag-9a5c97e7","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":846,"regime":"CRI 1.2","edgeCents":37,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to norm","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","marketTitle":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"960a7e41-10d7-47ca-8653-7d3dd830b5fd","headline":"Sell oil above $100: bearish crude contracts now at 63c","pitch":"WTI crude falling to $80 by end of June is priced at 63c on R8, which is transitioning from taker to neutral — a regime exhaustion signal. Meanwhile the $95 May contract surged 33c to 72c on Iran détente news, confirming the directional shift. The $110 bull contract crashed 22c to 38c, validating the bearish supply narrative. Fade the crude bull case with R8 as the regime shift completes.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","currentPrice":56,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"WTI crude below $85 by end of June","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."},{"ticker":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","venue":"polymarket","title":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","currentPrice":53,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"WTI crude below $85 by end of June","checkDate":"2026-06-30","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"Formal US-Iran de-escalation statement or OPEC+ supply response","timeHorizon":"3-5 weeks","risk":"Iran talks break down; Hormuz blockade tightens, oil spikes above $100","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"sell-oil-above-100-bearish-crude-contracts-now-at-63c-960a7e41","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":583,"regime":"CRI 1.7","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","marketTitle":"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"43fd70b8-5c0c-47c4-92e4-c72672f515e9","headline":"Contrarian: Gold to $4,650 still live at 56c amid dollar weakness","pitch":"R6 shows gold at $4,650 in May 2026 priced at 56c, shifting to taker regime with score 0.625 — momentum is accelerating. Iran détente reduces safe-haven demand but Fed leadership instability (Powell exit at 95c) and dollar uncertainty sustain gold's bid. The 56c price at taker-regime entry offers a 44c upside with a defined May catalyst window. Buy the regime shift in R6 as competing macro forces keep gold elevated.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","venue":"polymarket","title":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","currentPrice":53,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":3703,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gold closes above $4,650 in May 2026","checkDate":"2026-05-31","theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge."}],"catalyst":"Powell departure confirmation or dollar index breakdown below key support","timeHorizon":"1 week","risk":"Iran deal fully materializes, risk-on crushes safe-haven demand and gold drops below $4,400","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"contrarian-gold-to-4650-still-live-at-56c-amid-dollar-weakne-43fd70b8","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":3703,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":18,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Iran Détente Repricing Oil and Energy Markets","themeNarrative":"Surging US-Iran peace deal probabilities are directly suppressing oil price expectations, with blockade-lift contracts spiking and crude bearish bets surging. The contagion from diplomatic progress to energy markets creates a tradeable lag between geopolitical contracts and oil price derivatives. Conflicting short-term vs. medium-term signals mean the term structure itself is the edge.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a","marketTitle":"What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $4,650","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"31d63d7a-e51e-4ef5-86e5-57be015df59e","headline":"12c cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi Bitcoin reserve at 19c","pitch":"X1 on Kalshi prices the US National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 at 19c while X2 on Polymarket prices the identical contract at 31c — a 12c gap at 0.95 confidence. This is the highest-confidence cross-venue arb in the dataset, well above the 5c signal threshold. Buy X1 on Kalshi, sell X2 on Polymarket simultaneously to lock in the 12c spread. Risk is execution timing and venue liquidity but confidence is near-maximum.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027","currentPrice":19,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."},{"ticker":"0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2","venue":"polymarket","title":"US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?","currentPrice":33,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."}],"catalyst":"Any executive order or Treasury announcement on Bitcoin reserve policy","timeHorizon":"1-2 days (arb capture)","risk":"Venue settlement rules differ; one contract resolves NO on technicality while other resolves YES","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"12c-cross-venue-arb-buy-kalshi-bitcoin-reserve-at-19c-31d63d7a","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Res","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Res","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","marketTitle":"Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"57927194-3567-4150-b7bc-836afde46834","headline":"Satoshi coins stay dormant: sell movement risk at 8c","pitch":"R3 shows Satoshi-moves-Bitcoin-in-2026 at 8c, transitioning from maker to neutral — liquidity is withdrawing, suggesting the 8c price is about to drift. MicroStrategy sell probabilities have been whipsawed (crashed 14c to 21c then surged 11c to 40c), but the Satoshi dormancy thesis is structurally independent and more stable. At 8c with a maker-to-neutral regime shift, the contract is mispriced low given the historical 17-year dormancy baseline. Buy the NO at 92c implied.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_no","markets":[{"ticker":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","currentPrice":8,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1893,"regime":"CRI 11.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":0,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Contract resolves NO (no Satoshi movement in 2026)","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction."}],"catalyst":"No on-chain movement from Satoshi wallets through year-end","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Satoshi or estate moves coins for any reason; black swan key-recovery event","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"satoshi-coins-stay-dormant-sell-movement-risk-at-8c-57927194","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1893,"regime":"CRI 11.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":0,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c"},"execute":{"description":"Buy NO on Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"polymarket","marketId":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","marketTitle":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","direction":"no","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"2cc8072b-e5f0-4fa4-9194-debbb2c7ab1a","headline":"1477% IY on Congress veto override: carry trade at 10c","pitch":"L1 offers 1477% implied yield at 10c for a Congress veto override before 2027 — the highest IY in the legislative dataset by a factor of 10x. Powell's forced exit at 95c probability signals executive dominance, making a successful congressional override structurally unlikely, but the yield compensates massively for the tail risk. Pair with L2 at 27c (101% IY) as a hedge: buy L1 for yield, hold L2 as the longer-dated probability anchor. Net carry on the pair is extraordinary given the policy backdrop.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":12,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."}],"catalyst":"Trump vetoes major legislation (e.g., debt ceiling or Fed independence bill) triggering override attempt","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Republican Senate maintains party discipline; no override attempt materializes, L1 expires worthless","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"1477-iy-on-congress-veto-override-carry-trade-at-10c-2cc8072b","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","marketTitle":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"dd8621ef-5b8c-43c3-8253-aa99b92d7bb8","headline":"Insurrection Act invocation at 657% IY: policy tail hedge","pitch":"L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 20c with 657% implied yield — a fat-tailed policy risk that is systematically underpriced given the Powell exit signal and executive power consolidation narrative. L6 at 58c (27% IY) represents the longer-dated version, confirming markets do assign meaningful probability over a full term. The 38c gap between L5 and L6 implies near-term invocation is discounted, but the IY on L5 makes it a high-return carry position. Buy L5 as a leveraged policy hedge against executive escalation.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":19,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump formally invokes Insurrection Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":54,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump formally invokes Insurrection Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme."}],"catalyst":"Domestic unrest, border emergency declaration, or federal law enforcement deployment order","timeHorizon":"6-12 months","risk":"No triggering event; executive uses other legal authorities instead; L5 expires at zero","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-invocation-at-657-iy-policy-tail-hedge-dd8621ef","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":657,"regime":"CRI 4.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINSURRECTION-29-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"3f9c4350-2302-49de-8ee3-2a1abb8ef6f7","headline":"58c contagion lag: Democratic FL-23 lags CA-17 trigger by 78c","pitch":"C1 and C3 show Democratic House race triggers in CA-17 and CA-44 moving +78c delta while FL-23 Democratic contract sits at 82c — a -58c contagion gap. The uniform gap across 8 contract pairs (C1 through C8) at identical -58c magnitude signals a structural pricing inefficiency rather than noise. FL-23 at 82c should be re-rated toward trigger-implied fair value as election cycle information propagates. Buy the lagging FL-23 Democratic contract before contagion closes the gap.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26-D","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?: Democratic party","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":15,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":58,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"FL-23 Democratic contract reprices to 90c+, closing gap with trigger-implied fair value","checkDate":"2026-11-03","theme":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","themeNarrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts."}],"catalyst":"National Democratic polling shift or candidate fundraising data release updating cross-district models","timeHorizon":"Weeks to months (election cycle dependent)","risk":"FL-23 has genuine district-specific risk factors (incumbency, demographics) that justify the discount vs. CA safe seats","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSEFL23-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"58c-contagion-lag-democratic-fl-23-lags-ca-17-trigger-by-78c-3f9c4350","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":15,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":58,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","themeNarrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.","nextActions":{"inspect":null}}],"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Buy Hormuz normalization: 54c deal odds vs 28c tra","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187"},{"description":"Sell oil above $100: bearish crude contracts now a","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5"},{"description":"Contrarian: Gold to $4,650 still live at 56c amid ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x5c71b04f4feb89ced58e02dd4137deaed75253c0c119047c77aa21d65a41440a"},{"description":"12c cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi Bitcoin reserve at","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01"},{"description":"Satoshi coins stay dormant: sell movement risk at ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"High-yield screen","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/screen?iy_min=200&las_max=0.1&sort=iy"},{"description":"Full world state","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?format=json"}]}}