{"generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","cached":true,"ageHours":12.7,"expired":false,"themes":[{"label":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","narrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep.","ideas":[{"id":"6e6db5ca-9e5b-41a1-bc03-347d1bd3e98f","headline":"NVIDIA compute price laggard at 16c vs 107-point contagion gap — buy now","pitch":"C1 and C3 show a 107-point and 103-point contagion gap respectively: trigger contracts repriced +82 and +71 delta while lagging contracts sit at 16c. This is the largest gap signal in today's dataset and squarely meets our Signal Priority 2 threshold — the lag IS the edge. The Databricks IPO signal (43-point crash in 'No IPO' odds) independently confirms AI compute demand is being re-rated upward. At 16c on the laggard, risk/reward is asymmetric.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50","currentPrice":55,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Lagging NVIDIA compute price contracts reprice above 50c to close the gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."}],"catalyst":"Databricks IPO filing confirmation; NVIDIA compute pricing data release; AI capex announcements","timeHorizon":"1-3 weeks","risk":"Lagging contract resolves on different time bucket than trigger; compute prices correct lower","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"nvidia-compute-price-laggard-at-16c-vs-107-point-contagion-g-6e6db5ca","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the monthly average compute price o","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the monthly average compute price o","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","marketTitle":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"74eccb7e-c528-48f8-9a53-dc1bf1a2d24a","headline":"Sell the 84c laggard — inverse contagion gap equally exploitable","pitch":"C2 and C5 show the mirror trade: trigger contracts repriced -82 and -63 delta while lagging 'above' contracts remain at 84c — a -107 and -101 point gap respectively. The asymmetry is identical in magnitude to the buy side. Sam Altman's CNBC appearance (C5 trigger, -63 delta) has already catalyzed the bearish repricing on one input contract; the 84c laggard has not followed. Selling at 84c against a -107 contagion signal offers the same structural edge as the long side.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"ticker":"KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in May 2027?: Above $0.50","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"84c laggard contracts reprice below 50c, closing the negative contagion gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."},{"ticker":"KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in August 2026?: Above $0.50","currentPrice":96,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"84c laggard contracts reprice below 50c, closing the negative contagion gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."}],"catalyst":"Continued AI compute price data; follow-on commentary from OpenAI or NVIDIA management","timeHorizon":"1-3 weeks","risk":"Lagging contract is on a later expiry and correctly prices a recovery in compute demand","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"sell-the-84c-laggard-inverse-contagion-gap-equally-exploitab-74eccb7e","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the monthly average compute price o","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500"}}}]},{"label":"Hormuz Shipping Disruption Premium Underpriced","narrative":"Oil rallied 4% today with the $115+ year-end spike contract at 31c, yet Hormuz transit volume markets are only now flipping from neutral to taker-flow (R4). The causal chain is direct: if transit calls fall below 150 (R4 resolving No), the supply disruption premium in oil futures accelerates and late-2026 oil spike contracts become deeply underpriced at 31c. This theme is a contrarian bet against the consensus 'supply disruption stays contained' view embedded in current Hormuz transit pricing.","ideas":[{"id":"1c739ca1-0793-4cfe-bcb7-2814c1239d9d","headline":"Hormuz weekly transits flipping bearish — regime shift underway at 60c","pitch":"R4 shows a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz weekly transits above 150 calls, currently priced at 60c with a score of 0.625. The oil +4% move today is inconsistent with the market pricing a 60% probability of normal transit volumes through July 12 — if disruption is priced in oil, it should be priced here too. The contagion from energy markets to Hormuz contracts has not occurred. Selling the 60c 'above 150 transits' contract is a direct hedge against the oil spike thesis.","conviction":"medium","direction":"sell","markets":[{"ticker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?: Above 150","currentPrice":51,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":4603,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":59,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Hormuz transits resolve below 150 for the week ending July 12 2026","checkDate":"2026-07-12","theme":"Hormuz Shipping Disruption Premium Underpriced","themeNarrative":"Oil rallied 4% today with the $115+ year-end spike contract at 31c, yet Hormuz transit volume markets are only now flipping from neutral to taker-flow (R4). The causal chain is direct: if transit calls fall below 150 (R4 resolving No), the supply disruption premium in oil futures accelerates and late-2026 oil spike contracts become deeply underpriced at 31c. This theme is a contrarian bet against the consensus 'supply disruption stays contained' view embedded in current Hormuz transit pricing."}],"catalyst":"Hormuz transit data release July 12; geopolitical escalation in Gulf region; oil price continuation","timeHorizon":"3 days","risk":"Transit volumes remain normal; oil rally is demand-driven not supply-disruption driven","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"hormuz-weekly-transits-flipping-bearish-regime-shift-underwa-1c739ca1","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":4603,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":59,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Hormuz Shipping Disruption Premium Underpriced","themeNarrative":"Oil rallied 4% today with the $115+ year-end spike contract at 31c, yet Hormuz transit volume markets are only now flipping from neutral to taker-flow (R4). The causal chain is direct: if transit calls fall below 150 (R4 resolving No), the supply disruption premium in oil futures accelerates and late-2026 oil spike contracts become deeply underpriced at 31c. This theme is a contrarian bet against the consensus 'supply disruption stays contained' view embedded in current Hormuz transit pricing.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will there be more than 150 transit call","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150"}}}]},{"label":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","narrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","ideas":[{"id":"776a414c-da86-4c08-9f89-abde00f056ce","headline":"Insurrection Act 23-point cross-venue arb — L5 vs L6 spread trade","pitch":"L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 21c on one venue while L6 prices the same event at 44c — a 23-point cross-venue gap that exceeds our 5c Signal Priority 1 threshold by 4.6x. Both contracts have positive IY (779 and 50 respectively). The structural explanation for the gap is liquidity differential, not information — L6's 44c is closer to fair value given the current political environment. Buy L5 at 21c, effectively capturing 23c of arb premium on identical binary outcomes.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":21,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":44,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."}],"catalyst":"Any domestic unrest event; Trump executive action announcement; congressional confrontation","timeHorizon":"Open-ended (presidency duration)","risk":"L6 is the mispriced leg and corrects downward to 21c; different resolution criteria across venues","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-23-point-cross-venue-arb-l5-vs-l6-spread-tr-776a414c","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINSURRECTION-29-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"e8de20a3-6b2d-46b5-af63-490e1ff26128","headline":"Congress veto override at 10c before 2027 — buy the tail risk","pitch":"L1 prices Congress overriding a Trump veto before 2027 at just 10c with an IY of 1,863 — a rich yield on what is arguably a non-trivial political tail. L2 prices the same event on an open-ended basis at 29c, creating a 19c time-premium gap for the pre-2027 version. With Democrats at 82c to retake the House (per highlights) and the Senate a coin-flip, the procedural conditions for an override are more plausible than 10c implies. The 1,863 IY sweetens the entry significantly.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":29,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."}],"catalyst":"Democrats retaking House in November 2026 midterms; high-profile veto on popular legislation","timeHorizon":"6 months","risk":"Republicans hold House; override requires 2/3 supermajority regardless of chamber control","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-veto-override-at-10c-before-2027-buy-the-tail-risk-e8de20a3","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. 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This is the largest gap signal in today's dataset and squarely meets our Signal Priority 2 threshold — the lag IS the edge. The Databricks IPO signal (43-point crash in 'No IPO' odds) independently confirms AI compute demand is being re-rated upward. At 16c on the laggard, risk/reward is asymmetric.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026?: Above $1.50","currentPrice":55,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Lagging NVIDIA compute price contracts reprice above 50c to close the gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."}],"catalyst":"Databricks IPO filing confirmation; NVIDIA compute pricing data release; AI capex announcements","timeHorizon":"1-3 weeks","risk":"Lagging contract resolves on different time bucket than trigger; compute prices correct lower","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"nvidia-compute-price-laggard-at-16c-vs-107-point-contagion-g-6e6db5ca","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. 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The asymmetry is identical in magnitude to the buy side. Sam Altman's CNBC appearance (C5 trigger, -63 delta) has already catalyzed the bearish repricing on one input contract; the 84c laggard has not followed. Selling at 84c against a -107 contagion signal offers the same structural edge as the long side.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"ticker":"KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in May 2027?: Above $0.50","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"84c laggard contracts reprice below 50c, closing the negative contagion gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."},{"ticker":"KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in August 2026?: Above $0.50","currentPrice":96,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"84c laggard contracts reprice below 50c, closing the negative contagion gap","checkDate":"2026-07-31","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep."}],"catalyst":"Continued AI compute price data; follow-on commentary from OpenAI or NVIDIA management","timeHorizon":"1-3 weeks","risk":"Lagging contract is on a later expiry and correctly prices a recovery in compute demand","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500","KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500","KXA100MS-26AUG-0.500"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"sell-the-84c-laggard-inverse-contagion-gap-equally-exploitab-74eccb7e","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":21,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":107,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion — Massive Lag Gap","themeNarrative":"A cluster of contagion gaps exceeding 100 points has opened across NVIDIA compute price prediction markets, all within the same Tech/IPO group. The trigger contracts have repriced sharply (+65 to +82 delta) while lagging contracts remain anchored at 16c — a structural mispricing that is the single largest cross-market signal in today's dataset. Databricks IPO repricing adds a secondary catalyst, as AI infrastructure demand expectations are moving in lockstep.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the monthly average compute price o","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500"}}},{"id":"1c739ca1-0793-4cfe-bcb7-2814c1239d9d","headline":"Hormuz weekly transits flipping bearish — regime shift underway at 60c","pitch":"R4 shows a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz weekly transits above 150 calls, currently priced at 60c with a score of 0.625. The oil +4% move today is inconsistent with the market pricing a 60% probability of normal transit volumes through July 12 — if disruption is priced in oil, it should be priced here too. The contagion from energy markets to Hormuz contracts has not occurred. Selling the 60c 'above 150 transits' contract is a direct hedge against the oil spike thesis.","conviction":"medium","direction":"sell","markets":[{"ticker":"KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will there be more than 150 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 6, 2026 to Jul 12, 2026?: Above 150","currentPrice":51,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":4603,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":59,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Hormuz transits resolve below 150 for the week ending July 12 2026","checkDate":"2026-07-12","theme":"Hormuz Shipping Disruption Premium Underpriced","themeNarrative":"Oil rallied 4% today with the $115+ year-end spike contract at 31c, yet Hormuz transit volume markets are only now flipping from neutral to taker-flow (R4). The causal chain is direct: if transit calls fall below 150 (R4 resolving No), the supply disruption premium in oil futures accelerates and late-2026 oil spike contracts become deeply underpriced at 31c. This theme is a contrarian bet against the consensus 'supply disruption stays contained' view embedded in current Hormuz transit pricing."}],"catalyst":"Hormuz transit data release July 12; geopolitical escalation in Gulf region; oil price continuation","timeHorizon":"3 days","risk":"Transit volumes remain normal; oil rally is demand-driven not supply-disruption driven","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"hormuz-weekly-transits-flipping-bearish-regime-shift-underwa-1c739ca1","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":4603,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":59,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Hormuz Shipping Disruption Premium Underpriced","themeNarrative":"Oil rallied 4% today with the $115+ year-end spike contract at 31c, yet Hormuz transit volume markets are only now flipping from neutral to taker-flow (R4). The causal chain is direct: if transit calls fall below 150 (R4 resolving No), the supply disruption premium in oil futures accelerates and late-2026 oil spike contracts become deeply underpriced at 31c. This theme is a contrarian bet against the consensus 'supply disruption stays contained' view embedded in current Hormuz transit pricing.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will there be more than 150 transit call","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150"}}},{"id":"776a414c-da86-4c08-9f89-abde00f056ce","headline":"Insurrection Act 23-point cross-venue arb — L5 vs L6 spread trade","pitch":"L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 21c on one venue while L6 prices the same event at 44c — a 23-point cross-venue gap that exceeds our 5c Signal Priority 1 threshold by 4.6x. Both contracts have positive IY (779 and 50 respectively). The structural explanation for the gap is liquidity differential, not information — L6's 44c is closer to fair value given the current political environment. Buy L5 at 21c, effectively capturing 23c of arb premium on identical binary outcomes.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":21,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":44,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."}],"catalyst":"Any domestic unrest event; Trump executive action announcement; congressional confrontation","timeHorizon":"Open-ended (presidency duration)","risk":"L6 is the mispriced leg and corrects downward to 21c; different resolution criteria across venues","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-23-point-cross-venue-arb-l5-vs-l6-spread-tr-776a414c","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINSURRECTION-29-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"e8de20a3-6b2d-46b5-af63-490e1ff26128","headline":"Congress veto override at 10c before 2027 — buy the tail risk","pitch":"L1 prices Congress overriding a Trump veto before 2027 at just 10c with an IY of 1,863 — a rich yield on what is arguably a non-trivial political tail. L2 prices the same event on an open-ended basis at 29c, creating a 19c time-premium gap for the pre-2027 version. With Democrats at 82c to retake the House (per highlights) and the Senate a coin-flip, the procedural conditions for an override are more plausible than 10c implies. The 1,863 IY sweetens the entry significantly.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":29,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained."}],"catalyst":"Democrats retaking House in November 2026 midterms; high-profile veto on popular legislation","timeHorizon":"6 months","risk":"Republicans hold House; override requires 2/3 supermajority regardless of chamber control","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-veto-override-at-10c-before-2027-buy-the-tail-risk-e8de20a3","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","marketTitle":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}],"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"NVIDIA compute price laggard at 16c vs 107-point c","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXH200MS-26DEC-1.500"},{"description":"Sell the 84c laggard — inverse contagion gap equal","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXA100MS-27MAY-0.500"},{"description":"Hormuz weekly transits flipping bearish — regime s","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26JUL12-T150"},{"description":"Insurrection Act 23-point cross-venue arb — L5 vs ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXINSURRECTION-29-27"},{"description":"Congress veto override at 10c before 2027 — buy th","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"High-yield screen","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/screen?iy_min=200&las_max=0.1&sort=iy"},{"description":"Full world state","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?format=json"}]}}