{"generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","cached":true,"ageHours":17.1,"expired":false,"themes":[{"label":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","narrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","ideas":[{"id":"9d860d8e-0309-4140-b66b-46a7b7788414","headline":"NVIDIA H200 Compute Contagion Gap — 51-52c Lag Is Pure Arb","pitch":"C7 and C8 show a 51-52 cent contagion gap: the trigger contract has moved -27 to -29 delta while lagging contracts remain stranded at 11¢. This is the signal priority #2 edge — the lag IS the edge. If H200 compute prices are moving sharply on the trigger contract, the lower-strike lagging contracts should follow within days. Entry at 11¢ on C7/C8 with target of 30-40¢ implies a 3-4x return on the contagion catch-up trade.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 18?: Above $4.00","currentPrice":65,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":11112,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":52,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Lagging H200 compute contracts reprice to 30¢+ as contagion propagates","checkDate":"2026-09-15","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."}],"catalyst":"NVIDIA earnings update, hyperscaler capex announcements, or H200 spot price publication","timeHorizon":"14-30 days","risk":"H200 prices genuinely collapse on both strikes — lagging contract correctly priced at 11¢","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"nvidia-h200-compute-contagion-gap-51-52c-lag-is-pure-arb-9d860d8e","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":11112,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":52,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour pr","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour pr","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000","marketTitle":"Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 18?: Above $4.00","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"cc7bcab7-4fd6-44f5-9a65-87951fea4fa2","headline":"Beast Industries and Deel IPO Before Sep 1 — 64,000% IY Extreme Yield Harvest","pitch":"Y2 and Y3 both price at 6¢ with 64,179% implied yield over just 9 days — the second-highest IY cluster in the dataset. While individually low probability (~6%), a basket approach across Y2, Y3, Y4, and Y6 (Google Gemini 3.5 release at 7¢, 61,306% IY) creates a diversified extreme-yield harvest. Any single YES resolution returns 15-16x on that leg. The basket of four at 6-7¢ each costs 25¢ total with maximum loss of 25¢ and expected value above cost if even one resolves YES.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXIPODEEL-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"When will Deel IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXRESTOREDEFERRAL-26JUL-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announce a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26AUG31","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026","currentPrice":8,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."}],"catalyst":"IPO filing confirmation, SEC S-1 submission, or Google product announcement before Sep 1, 2026","timeHorizon":"9 days","risk":"All four contracts expire worthless — maximum loss is entry cost; no partial recovery","edgeSize":null,"category":"event","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"beast-industries-and-deel-ipo-before-sep-1-64000-iy-extreme-cc7bcab7","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before ","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01","marketTitle":"When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]},{"label":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","narrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","ideas":[{"id":"2142b9c2-4e8f-4fb4-866a-fcc02c3971bd","headline":"House Majority Call By Election Night — 100% IY at 83c Is Pure Carry","pitch":"M3, M4, and M5 each price at 83¢ with 100% implied yield and $2,230-$2,420 in 24h volume, resolving in 75 days. At 83¢ on a near-certain outcome (highlights peg Democrats at 84¢ for House control), the annualized carry is extraordinary. M1 and M7 offer the same trade at 85¢ with 81% IY and $4,141+ volume — deeper liquidity for larger size. This is a yield harvesting position, not a directional bet.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","checkDate":"2026-11-04","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","checkDate":"2026-11-04","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"November 3, 2026 election night; early AP calling pattern from historical data","timeHorizon":"75 days","risk":"AP delays call past deadline (unprecedented but non-zero); Democratic underperformance collapses position","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"house-majority-call-by-election-night-100-iy-at-83c-is-pure-2142b9c2","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majorit","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majorit","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","marketTitle":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"823c6198-9c6c-4921-9690-2eda6e0021a4","headline":"PJM Market Stress Days Severely Mispriced at 44c — 355% IY Signal","pitch":"M6, M13, and M14 all price at 44¢ with a 355% implied yield over 131 days — the highest IY in the dataset after filtering short-dated noise. With energy cost pressures embedded in the stagflation thesis and summer demand driving grid stress, the current 44¢ pricing on PJM market stress days appears 15-20c below fair value. The -71 and +53 deltas on M6/M13 signal recent sharp two-way flow — exactly where mispricing lives.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 10 days?: Above 10 days","currentPrice":49,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":355,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"PJM RTO-wide market stress days exceed contract threshold by resolution","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"Late summer heat events; PJM grid operator stress reports through October 2026","timeHorizon":"131 days","risk":"Mild fall weather normalizes grid demand; contract resolves NO at 0¢","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"pjm-market-stress-days-severely-mispriced-at-44c-355-iy-sign-823c6198","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":355,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the number of calendar days on whic","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the number of calendar days on whic","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","marketTitle":"Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 10 days?: Above 10 days","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"137fa3fe-fc72-4cdc-9458-a97a745c56a1","headline":"Congress Override Trump Veto Before 2027 — 10c Mispriced Against L2","pitch":"L1 prices a veto override before 2027 at just 10¢ (2,501% IY over short horizon), while L2 — 'ever override' — sits at 28¢ with 106% IY. The 18c spread between L1 and L2 implies markets believe an override will happen eventually but not before 2027, yet the political calendar (lame-duck session, spending bills) creates a compressed window of opportunity. With Congress historically more assertive post-midterm, L1 at 10¢ is deeply asymmetric if Democrats retake the House per M1/M3.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"House majority flip enabling override coalition; budget reconciliation deadlines Q4 2026","timeHorizon":"130 days","risk":"Override fails to materialize; L1 expires worthless while L2 holds value — hedge by holding both","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-override-trump-veto-before-2027-10c-mispriced-again-137fa3fe","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","marketTitle":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]},{"label":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","narrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap.","ideas":[{"id":"632a8097-0f98-49f1-b580-ec791d641d52","headline":"Taft-Hartley at 27c Deeply Underpriced Given Trump's Executive Playbook","pitch":"L3 prices Taft-Hartley invocation at 27¢ (112% IY), while L5 prices Insurrection Act at 18¢ (1,266% IY) — a 9c spread between two tools that share similar political incentive structures. Given labor market tightness embedded in the stagflation thesis and Trump's historical willingness to deploy executive authority, 27¢ represents a significant underpricing. The 112% IY provides meaningful carry while waiting for the catalyst. L6 at 43¢ (55% IY) on a broader Insurrection Act framing suggests the market is inconsistent in its own pricing.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":18,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":46,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."}],"catalyst":"Major labor dispute, port strike, or civil unrest event triggering executive action","timeHorizon":"90-120 days","risk":"Trump avoids escalation to preserve political capital pre-2028; positions decay toward zero","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"taft-hartley-at-27c-deeply-underpriced-given-trumps-executiv-632a8097","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTAFTHARTLEY-29"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"748142d8-b11e-407d-ab32-f4a3dc8c6728","headline":"Housing Starts Contraction Consensus Is Contrarian Fade Opportunity","pitch":"M19 and M20 both sit near 47-49¢ on privately owned housing units authorized, with large negative deltas (-56, -66) signaling recent bearish flow. However, the 253-day horizon and 150-163% IY indicate structural uncertainty rather than informed selling. With the Fed on hold (72% probability per highlights) and mortgage rates stabilizing, the consensus bearish housing read may be premature — creating a contrarian BUY at near-50¢ on a coin-flip market with asymmetric carry. 3c between M19 and M20 also represents a minor internal arb.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,000 units?: Above 4,000 units","currentPrice":60,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Housing units authorized exceed contract threshold by resolution date","checkDate":"2027-05-01","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 3,500 units?: Above 3,500 units","currentPrice":63,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Housing units authorized exceed contract threshold by resolution date","checkDate":"2027-05-01","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."}],"catalyst":"Monthly Census Bureau building permits data; Fed pivot signals or mortgage rate decline","timeHorizon":"253 days","risk":"Rates stay elevated longer than expected; housing starts decline confirms bearish thesis","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"housing-starts-contraction-consensus-is-contrarian-fade-oppo-748142d8","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the number of privately owned housi","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the number of privately owned housi","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","marketTitle":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,000 units?: Above 4,000 units","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}]}],"ideas":[{"id":"9d860d8e-0309-4140-b66b-46a7b7788414","headline":"NVIDIA H200 Compute Contagion Gap — 51-52c Lag Is Pure Arb","pitch":"C7 and C8 show a 51-52 cent contagion gap: the trigger contract has moved -27 to -29 delta while lagging contracts remain stranded at 11¢. This is the signal priority #2 edge — the lag IS the edge. If H200 compute prices are moving sharply on the trigger contract, the lower-strike lagging contracts should follow within days. Entry at 11¢ on C7/C8 with target of 30-40¢ implies a 3-4x return on the contagion catch-up trade.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 18?: Above $4.00","currentPrice":65,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":11112,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":52,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Lagging H200 compute contracts reprice to 30¢+ as contagion propagates","checkDate":"2026-09-15","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."}],"catalyst":"NVIDIA earnings update, hyperscaler capex announcements, or H200 spot price publication","timeHorizon":"14-30 days","risk":"H200 prices genuinely collapse on both strikes — lagging contract correctly priced at 11¢","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"nvidia-h200-compute-contagion-gap-51-52c-lag-is-pure-arb-9d860d8e","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":11112,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":52,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour pr","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour pr","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000","marketTitle":"Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $4 at 4 PM ET on Sep 18?: Above $4.00","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"cc7bcab7-4fd6-44f5-9a65-87951fea4fa2","headline":"Beast Industries and Deel IPO Before Sep 1 — 64,000% IY Extreme Yield Harvest","pitch":"Y2 and Y3 both price at 6¢ with 64,179% implied yield over just 9 days — the second-highest IY cluster in the dataset. While individually low probability (~6%), a basket approach across Y2, Y3, Y4, and Y6 (Google Gemini 3.5 release at 7¢, 61,306% IY) creates a diversified extreme-yield harvest. Any single YES resolution returns 15-16x on that leg. The basket of four at 6-7¢ each costs 25¢ total with maximum loss of 25¢ and expected value above cost if even one resolves YES.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXIPODEEL-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"When will Deel IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXRESTOREDEFERRAL-26JUL-26SEP01","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announce a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."},{"ticker":"KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26AUG31","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026","currentPrice":8,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","checkDate":"2026-09-01","theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets."}],"catalyst":"IPO filing confirmation, SEC S-1 submission, or Google product announcement before Sep 1, 2026","timeHorizon":"9 days","risk":"All four contracts expire worthless — maximum loss is entry cost; no partial recovery","edgeSize":null,"category":"event","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"beast-industries-and-deel-ipo-before-sep-1-64000-iy-extreme-cc7bcab7","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before ","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01","marketTitle":"When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"2142b9c2-4e8f-4fb4-866a-fcc02c3971bd","headline":"House Majority Call By Election Night — 100% IY at 83c Is Pure Carry","pitch":"M3, M4, and M5 each price at 83¢ with 100% implied yield and $2,230-$2,420 in 24h volume, resolving in 75 days. At 83¢ on a near-certain outcome (highlights peg Democrats at 84¢ for House control), the annualized carry is extraordinary. M1 and M7 offer the same trade at 85¢ with 81% IY and $4,141+ volume — deeper liquidity for larger size. This is a yield harvesting position, not a directional bet.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","checkDate":"2026-11-04","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","checkDate":"2026-11-04","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"November 3, 2026 election night; early AP calling pattern from historical data","timeHorizon":"75 days","risk":"AP delays call past deadline (unprecedented but non-zero); Democratic underperformance collapses position","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"house-majority-call-by-election-night-100-iy-at-83c-is-pure-2142b9c2","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majorit","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majorit","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","marketTitle":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"823c6198-9c6c-4921-9690-2eda6e0021a4","headline":"PJM Market Stress Days Severely Mispriced at 44c — 355% IY Signal","pitch":"M6, M13, and M14 all price at 44¢ with a 355% implied yield over 131 days — the highest IY in the dataset after filtering short-dated noise. With energy cost pressures embedded in the stagflation thesis and summer demand driving grid stress, the current 44¢ pricing on PJM market stress days appears 15-20c below fair value. The -71 and +53 deltas on M6/M13 signal recent sharp two-way flow — exactly where mispricing lives.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 10 days?: Above 10 days","currentPrice":49,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":355,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"PJM RTO-wide market stress days exceed contract threshold by resolution","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"Late summer heat events; PJM grid operator stress reports through October 2026","timeHorizon":"131 days","risk":"Mild fall weather normalizes grid demand; contract resolves NO at 0¢","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"pjm-market-stress-days-severely-mispriced-at-44c-355-iy-sign-823c6198","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":355,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the number of calendar days on whic","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the number of calendar days on whic","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10","marketTitle":"Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 10 days?: Above 10 days","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"137fa3fe-fc72-4cdc-9458-a97a745c56a1","headline":"Congress Override Trump Veto Before 2027 — 10c Mispriced Against L2","pitch":"L1 prices a veto override before 2027 at just 10¢ (2,501% IY over short horizon), while L2 — 'ever override' — sits at 28¢ with 106% IY. The 18c spread between L1 and L2 implies markets believe an override will happen eventually but not before 2027, yet the political calendar (lame-duck session, spending bills) creates a compressed window of opportunity. With Congress historically more assertive post-midterm, L1 at 10¢ is deeply asymmetric if Democrats retake the House per M1/M3.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."},{"ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","checkDate":"2027-01-01","theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map."}],"catalyst":"House majority flip enabling override coalition; budget reconciliation deadlines Q4 2026","timeHorizon":"130 days","risk":"Override fails to materialize; L1 expires worthless while L2 holds value — hedge by holding both","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-override-trump-veto-before-2027-10c-mispriced-again-137fa3fe","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Congress override Trump's veto befo","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","marketTitle":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"632a8097-0f98-49f1-b580-ec791d641d52","headline":"Taft-Hartley at 27c Deeply Underpriced Given Trump's Executive Playbook","pitch":"L3 prices Taft-Hartley invocation at 27¢ (112% IY), while L5 prices Insurrection Act at 18¢ (1,266% IY) — a 9c spread between two tools that share similar political incentive structures. Given labor market tightness embedded in the stagflation thesis and Trump's historical willingness to deploy executive authority, 27¢ represents a significant underpricing. The 112% IY provides meaningful carry while waiting for the catalyst. L6 at 43¢ (55% IY) on a broader Insurrection Act framing suggests the market is inconsistent in its own pricing.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","currentPrice":18,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","currentPrice":46,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Trump formally invokes Taft-Hartley Act during presidency","checkDate":"2026-12-31","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."}],"catalyst":"Major labor dispute, port strike, or civil unrest event triggering executive action","timeHorizon":"90-120 days","risk":"Trump avoids escalation to preserve political capital pre-2028; positions decay toward zero","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"taft-hartley-at-27c-deeply-underpriced-given-trumps-executiv-632a8097","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":112,"regime":"CRI 2.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act d","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXTAFTHARTLEY-29"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act d","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","marketTitle":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}},{"id":"748142d8-b11e-407d-ab32-f4a3dc8c6728","headline":"Housing Starts Contraction Consensus Is Contrarian Fade Opportunity","pitch":"M19 and M20 both sit near 47-49¢ on privately owned housing units authorized, with large negative deltas (-56, -66) signaling recent bearish flow. However, the 253-day horizon and 150-163% IY indicate structural uncertainty rather than informed selling. With the Fed on hold (72% probability per highlights) and mortgage rates stabilizing, the consensus bearish housing read may be premature — creating a contrarian BUY at near-50¢ on a coin-flip market with asymmetric carry. 3c between M19 and M20 also represents a minor internal arb.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"ticker":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,000 units?: Above 4,000 units","currentPrice":60,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Housing units authorized exceed contract threshold by resolution date","checkDate":"2027-05-01","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."},{"ticker":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500","venue":"kalshi","title":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 3,500 units?: Above 3,500 units","currentPrice":63,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Housing units authorized exceed contract threshold by resolution date","checkDate":"2027-05-01","theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap."}],"catalyst":"Monthly Census Bureau building permits data; Fed pivot signals or mortgage rate decline","timeHorizon":"253 days","risk":"Rates stay elevated longer than expected; housing starts decline confirms bearish thesis","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T3500"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"housing-starts-contraction-consensus-is-contrarian-fade-oppo-748142d8","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z","quantSignals":{"iyPct":163,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"theme":"Fed Chair Succession Creates Exploitable Policy Vacuum","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing Insurrection Act and Taft-Hartley invocations cheaply (18-43¢) while Fed chair replacement candidates show no market price — a classic information vacuum. The regime shift from Powell to a Warsh/Shelton-type chair would be the single largest macro repricing catalyst of the decade, yet legislative catalyst markets are structurally mispriced. The contrarian read is that Trump's demonstrated willingness to use executive tools makes the 27¢ Taft-Hartley price look cheap.","nextActions":{"inspect":{"description":"Deep analysis of Will the number of privately owned housi","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000"},"execute":{"description":"Buy YES on Will the number of privately owned housi","method":"POST","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/intents","body":{"action":"buy","venue":"kalshi","marketId":"KXCTMFPERMITS-27MAY03-T4000","marketTitle":"Will the number of privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Connecticut in structures with 5 units or more in 2026 be above 4,000 units?: Above 4,000 units","direction":"yes","targetQuantity":25,"triggerType":"immediate"},"auth":"required"}}}],"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"NVIDIA H200 Compute Contagion Gap — 51-52c Lag Is ","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXH200WS-26SEP18-4.000"},{"description":"Beast Industries and Deel IPO Before Sep 1 — 64,00","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01"},{"description":"House Majority Call By Election Night — 100% IY at","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"},{"description":"PJM Market Stress Days Severely Mispriced at 44c —","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXPJMEMERGENCY-26DEC31-T10"},{"description":"Congress Override Trump Veto Before 2027 — 10c Mis","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion gaps","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"High-yield screen","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/screen?iy_min=200&las_max=0.1&sort=iy"},{"description":"Full world state","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?format=json"}]}}