{"id":"01d45fc0-b274-4d02-b31a-ca1ae14817fe","headline":"Congress veto override by 2027 at 10¢ is a structural underpricing — buy","pitch":"L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10¢ with a 2,520% implied yield — the highest IY in the legislative catalyst set by a factor of 23x over L2. L2 (override ever) sits at 28¢ with 107% IY, implying the market thinks an override is plausible eventually but not before 2027. The 18-cent gap between L2 (28¢) and L1 (10¢) for a near-term vs. long-term version of the same event suggests the near-term contract is over-discounted. At 2,520% IY on an 8-day resolution equivalent basis, even a small probability shift delivers outsized returns.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Midterm Senate Knife-Edge Creates Spread Opportunity","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2520,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES or reprices to 25¢+ on credible override vote news","themeNarrative":"The 2026 Senate control market sits at 52¢ Republican vs 48¢ Democrat — a statistical coin flip — while the House is priced at 84¢ for Democratic control. Key state races like Georgia (D 92¢) and Michigan (D 62¢) show strong Democratic tailwinds that have not fully fed through to the national Senate control contract. The divergence between state-level implied probabilities and the national control contract is the structural edge, compounded by a highly liquid market where regime shifts are detectable.","livePrice":9,"volume":12516.9,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":10,"yesBid":5},{"theme":"2026 Midterm Senate Knife-Edge Creates Spread Opportunity","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2520,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES or reprices to 25¢+ on credible override vote news","themeNarrative":"The 2026 Senate control market sits at 52¢ Republican vs 48¢ Democrat — a statistical coin flip — while the House is priced at 84¢ for Democratic control. Key state races like Georgia (D 92¢) and Michigan (D 62¢) show strong Democratic tailwinds that have not fully fed through to the national Senate control contract. The divergence between state-level implied probabilities and the national control contract is the structural edge, compounded by a highly liquid market where regime shifts are detectable.","livePrice":42,"volume":17011.77,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":40,"yesBid":35}],"catalyst":"Congressional vote on a high-profile Trump veto before year-end 2026","timeHorizon":"8-18 weeks","risk":"Congress remains unified behind Trump; no override attempt materializes","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:48.799Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-25T06:36:48.799Z","isStale":true,"slug":"congress-veto-override-by-2027-at-10-is-a-structural-underpr-01d45fc0","createdAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:48.809Z"}