{"id":"05ed95b8-c938-465b-94c9-546e534af892","headline":"Congress veto override by 2027 at 10c: 2,539 IY legislative hedge","pitch":"L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at just 10c with a 2,539 IY — one of the highest legislative yield rates in the dataset. L2 (override ever) sits at 28c, implying a 28% lifetime probability; L1 at 10c implies only 36% of that lifetime probability occurs before 2027, which seems conservative given the current legislative calendar compression. The 2,539 IY makes this a capital-efficient hedge against political regime disruption that also complements the Hormuz thesis.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Contrarian: Hormuz Transit Recovery Underpriced","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-20","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2539,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 reprices to 20c+ on credible override vote; 2x return from 10c entry","themeNarrative":"R4 signals a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz transit calls above 60 (7-day MA), with the contract priced at just 17c for the period through Jan 2027. This is a contrarian long against the geopolitical risk consensus — the market is pricing near-certain disruption while the IMF PortWatch data implies a recovery trajectory. Simultaneously, L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2,539 IY offers a legislative hedge for the geopolitical complex.","livePrice":9,"volume":12516.9,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":10,"yesBid":5},{"theme":"Contrarian: Hormuz Transit Recovery Underpriced","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-20","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2539,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 reprices to 20c+ on credible override vote; 2x return from 10c entry","themeNarrative":"R4 signals a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz transit calls above 60 (7-day MA), with the contract priced at just 17c for the period through Jan 2027. This is a contrarian long against the geopolitical risk consensus — the market is pricing near-certain disruption while the IMF PortWatch data implies a recovery trajectory. Simultaneously, L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2,539 IY offers a legislative hedge for the geopolitical complex.","livePrice":42,"volume":17011.77,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":40,"yesBid":35},{"theme":"Contrarian: Hormuz Transit Recovery Underpriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-20","currentPrice":18,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2539,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 reprices to 20c+ on credible override vote; 2x return from 10c entry","themeNarrative":"R4 signals a regime shift from neutral to taker on Hormuz transit calls above 60 (7-day MA), with the contract priced at just 17c for the period through Jan 2027. This is a contrarian long against the geopolitical risk consensus — the market is pricing near-certain disruption while the IMF PortWatch data implies a recovery trajectory. Simultaneously, L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2,539 IY offers a legislative hedge for the geopolitical complex.","livePrice":18,"volume":327072.58,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":19,"yesBid":18}],"catalyst":"Major legislation passage requiring override; bipartisan coalition formation on budget or tariff bill","timeHorizon":"18 weeks (before Jan 2027)","risk":"Unified GOP blocks all override attempts; Congress recesses without action","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-25T06:36:53.349Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-26T06:36:53.349Z","isStale":true,"slug":"congress-veto-override-by-2027-at-10c-2539-iy-legislative-he-05ed95b8","createdAt":"2026-08-25T06:36:53.355Z"}