{"id":"121e89c6-63b3-4638-ab62-d3aeedbd43ac","headline":"Insurrection Act Invocation at 21-41c Diverges Across Venues — Arb","pitch":"L5 prices Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 21c (IY 964) while L6 prices the same question at 41c — a 20-cent cross-contract gap on what appears to be equivalent questions, exceeding the 5c arb threshold materially. Buy L5 at 21c and sell L6 at 41c for a near-riskless 20c spread if contracts resolve identically. Separately, L3 (Taft-Hartley invocation at 25c, IY 123) provides a correlated directional hedge as executive overreach probability rises in tandem.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Legislative Trigger Risk Underpriced by Market","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":21,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":964,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 resolves YES (Insurrection Act invoked) and L6 spread narrows to <5c","themeNarrative":"Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.","livePrice":18,"volume":327036.68,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":19,"yesBid":18},{"theme":"Legislative Trigger Risk Underpriced by Market","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":41,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":964,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 resolves YES (Insurrection Act invoked) and L6 spread narrows to <5c","themeNarrative":"Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.","livePrice":53,"volume":217172.19,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":53,"yesBid":49},{"theme":"Legislative Trigger Risk Underpriced by Market","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":25,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":964,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 resolves YES (Insurrection Act invoked) and L6 spread narrows to <5c","themeNarrative":"Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.","livePrice":33,"volume":4954.26,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":33,"yesBid":27}],"catalyst":"Domestic unrest event, labor strike, or border enforcement escalation triggering emergency powers consideration","timeHorizon":"16 weeks","risk":"Contract resolution criteria differ between L5 and L6 (different timeframes or conditions), collapsing the arb; no triggering event materializes","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.170Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-13T06:37:37.170Z","isStale":true,"slug":"insurrection-act-invocation-at-21-41c-diverges-across-venues-121e89c6","createdAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.173Z"}