{"id":"137fa3fe-fc72-4cdc-9458-a97a745c56a1","headline":"Congress Override Trump Veto Before 2027 — 10c Mispriced Against L2","pitch":"L1 prices a veto override before 2027 at just 10¢ (2,501% IY over short horizon), while L2 — 'ever override' — sits at 28¢ with 106% IY. The 18c spread between L1 and L2 implies markets believe an override will happen eventually but not before 2027, yet the political calendar (lame-duck session, spending bills) creates a compressed window of opportunity. With Congress historically more assertive post-midterm, L1 at 10¢ is deeply asymmetric if Democrats retake the House per M1/M3.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2027-01-01","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","livePrice":15,"volume":12288.69,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":13,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2027-01-01","currentPrice":28,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","livePrice":29,"volume":14607.44,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":30,"yesBid":28},{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","checkDate":"2027-01-01","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2501,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":7,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress passes veto override by December 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","livePrice":87,"volume":4545,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-11-11T05:00:00Z","yesAsk":89,"yesBid":85}],"catalyst":"House majority flip enabling override coalition; budget reconciliation deadlines Q4 2026","timeHorizon":"130 days","risk":"Override fails to materialize; L1 expires worthless while L2 holds value — hedge by holding both","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-override-trump-veto-before-2027-10c-mispriced-again-137fa3fe","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z"}