{"id":"1cb95f29-5184-4408-8b11-bd3442b9f71d","headline":"Congress veto override at 10c is mispriced given legislative momentum signals","pitch":"L1 prices Congress overriding Trump's veto before 2027 at just 10c with 2,074 IY — structurally cheap given the Michigan primary activity (Abdul El-Sayed at 62c in Senate primary) signaling Democratic energy. The longer-dated L2 at 30c for 'ever' override creates a useful benchmark: the 20c gap between L1 (before 2027) and L2 (ever) implies markets think override likelihood collapses 67% after 2026, which is implausible given midterm dynamics. Buy L1 for the compressed time-value.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"US Political Regime Risk Underpriced Across Executive Actions","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2074,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Legislative catalyst markets show Trump's executive action probabilities are priced with wide dispersion across venues, with Insurrection Act contracts ranging from 23c to 42c — a 19-point cross-reference gap suggesting systematic mispricing. With oil surging, VIX elevated, and risk-off conditions prevailing, the probability of aggressive executive action rises nonlinearly, while Congress override markets at 10-30c offer asymmetric long exposure to institutional pushback.","livePrice":10,"volume":12200.36,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":14,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"US Political Regime Risk Underpriced Across Executive Actions","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":30,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2074,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Legislative catalyst markets show Trump's executive action probabilities are priced with wide dispersion across venues, with Insurrection Act contracts ranging from 23c to 42c — a 19-point cross-reference gap suggesting systematic mispricing. With oil surging, VIX elevated, and risk-off conditions prevailing, the probability of aggressive executive action rises nonlinearly, while Congress override markets at 10-30c offer asymmetric long exposure to institutional pushback.","livePrice":29,"volume":14465.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":30}],"catalyst":"High-profile Trump veto on spending or defense bill; midterm election results","timeHorizon":"5 months","risk":"Republican Senate maintains lockstep discipline; no veto override-worthy bill reaches Trump before 2027","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.919Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:02.919Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-veto-override-at-10c-is-mispriced-given-legislative-1cb95f29","createdAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.925Z"}