{"id":"2142b9c2-4e8f-4fb4-866a-fcc02c3971bd","headline":"House Majority Call By Election Night — 100% IY at 83c Is Pure Carry","pitch":"M3, M4, and M5 each price at 83¢ with 100% implied yield and $2,230-$2,420 in 24h volume, resolving in 75 days. At 83¢ on a near-certain outcome (highlights peg Democrats at 84¢ for House control), the annualized carry is extraordinary. M1 and M7 offer the same trade at 85¢ with 81% IY and $4,141+ volume — deeper liquidity for larger size. This is a yield harvesting position, not a directional bet.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","checkDate":"2026-11-04","currentPrice":83,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","livePrice":83,"volume":2630,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-11-06T05:00:00Z","yesAsk":86,"yesBid":82},{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House Locked, Senate Is the Edge","title":"Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?: Before Nov 11","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","checkDate":"2026-11-04","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":100,"regime":"CRI 4.9","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"AP calls 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on resolution date","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House at 84¢ while Senate control sits at a near coin-flip (52¢ GOP). The M-series House majority contracts are clustered at 83-85¢ with IY ranging from 81-100%, meaning the carry alone justifies the position while the binary event approaches. The contrarian play is fading the Democratic Senate overconfidence given GOP structural advantages in the map.","livePrice":87,"volume":4545,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-11-11T05:00:00Z","yesAsk":89,"yesBid":85}],"catalyst":"November 3, 2026 election night; early AP calling pattern from historical data","timeHorizon":"75 days","risk":"AP delays call past deadline (unprecedented but non-zero); Democratic underperformance collapses position","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":["KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV1112A","KXAPCALLHOUSE-26AUG20-NOV0612A"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"house-majority-call-by-election-night-100-iy-at-83c-is-pure-2142b9c2","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z"}