{"id":"2cc8072b-e5f0-4fa4-9194-debbb2c7ab1a","headline":"1477% IY on Congress veto override: carry trade at 10c","pitch":"L1 offers 1477% implied yield at 10c for a Congress veto override before 2027 — the highest IY in the legislative dataset by a factor of 10x. Powell's forced exit at 95c probability signals executive dominance, making a successful congressional override structurally unlikely, but the yield compensates massively for the tail risk. Pair with L2 at 27c (101% IY) as a hedge: buy L1 for yield, hold L2 as the longer-dated probability anchor. Net carry on the pair is extraordinary given the policy backdrop.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","livePrice":15,"volume":11041.51,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":12},{"theme":"Fed Leadership Vacuum and Congressional Override Yield","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1477,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one veto override vote held in Congress before Jan 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Powell's exit probability hitting 95c creates a policy regime uncertainty that markets are only partially pricing through legislative catalysts. Congress veto-override markets offer extreme implied yields at tight prices, making them attractive carry trades in a high-uncertainty Fed environment. The interplay between executive power expansion and congressional pushback defines this theme.","livePrice":25,"volume":14267.07,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":33,"yesBid":28}],"catalyst":"Trump vetoes major legislation (e.g., debt ceiling or Fed independence bill) triggering override attempt","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Republican Senate maintains party discipline; no override attempt materializes, L1 expires worthless","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"1477-iy-on-congress-veto-override-carry-trade-at-10c-2cc8072b","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z"}