{"id":"31d63d7a-e51e-4ef5-86e5-57be015df59e","headline":"12c cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi Bitcoin reserve at 19c","pitch":"X1 on Kalshi prices the US National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027 at 19c while X2 on Polymarket prices the identical contract at 31c — a 12c gap at 0.95 confidence. This is the highest-confidence cross-venue arb in the dataset, well above the 5c signal threshold. Buy X1 on Kalshi, sell X2 on Polymarket simultaneously to lock in the 12c spread. Risk is execution timing and venue liquidity but confidence is near-maximum.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","title":"Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":19,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","livePrice":20,"volume":119520.43,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":20,"yesBid":18},{"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","title":"US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":31,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":700,"regime":"CRI 4.3","edgeCents":15,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":12},"outcomeTarget":"Spread compression to under 3c or full resolution","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","livePrice":31}],"catalyst":"Any executive order or Treasury announcement on Bitcoin reserve policy","timeHorizon":"1-2 days (arb capture)","risk":"Venue settlement rules differ; one contract resolves NO on technicality while other resolves YES","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01","0x953b1439569eef0a0e639566acd35d32ebadee8ab70dbb2f8e00bb936a277aa2"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"12c-cross-venue-arb-buy-kalshi-bitcoin-reserve-at-19c-31d63d7a","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z"}