{"id":"34052950-761b-41ad-813e-593fdb639e62","headline":"C5 Reverse Contagion: Monthly Average Trigger Points A100 Too Low","pitch":"C5 is the mirror image: monthly average compute trigger is up +67 delta while the A100 hourly price lagging market sits at just 42c — a +60 gap suggesting the A100 market is 60c underpriced relative to its monthly average trigger. C8 confirms: B200 trigger +26 delta vs A100 lagging at 42c yields a +48 gap. Two independent positive triggers are pointing at the same underpriced A100 market. The 42c price on the A100 hourly contract implies near coin-flip on a market that two correlated instruments suggest should be 70c+. Buy the A100 lagging market referenced in C5 and C8.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Contagion: 60-79 Point Gaps Demand Attention","title":"Will the NVIDIA A100 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Jul 24?: Above $1.00","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXA100WS-26JUL24-1.000","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":86,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":620,"regime":"CRI 6.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":60,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"A100 lagging market reprices from 42c toward 70c+","themeNarrative":"The NVIDIA compute complex shows the largest contagion gaps in the entire dataset — C1 shows a -79 gap where the A100 trigger has moved -40 delta but the monthly average lagging market sits at 68c, and C5 shows a +60 gap in the opposite direction. These are not noise; they represent markets in the same fundamental group (Tech/IPO) that have diverged by more than 5x the typical arb threshold. Tesla earnings cross-contamination (C2, C3) adds a second trigger layer, as the same lagging NVIDIA monthly average market is infected by multiple independent negative triggers.","livePrice":99,"volume":5948.8,"status":"finalized","closeTime":"2026-07-24T20:00:00Z","yesAsk":100,"yesBid":0},{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Contagion: 60-79 Point Gaps Demand Attention","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in June 2027?: Above $0.25","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXRTX5090MS-27JUN-0.250","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":67,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":620,"regime":"CRI 6.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":60,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"A100 lagging market reprices from 42c toward 70c+","themeNarrative":"The NVIDIA compute complex shows the largest contagion gaps in the entire dataset — C1 shows a -79 gap where the A100 trigger has moved -40 delta but the monthly average lagging market sits at 68c, and C5 shows a +60 gap in the opposite direction. These are not noise; they represent markets in the same fundamental group (Tech/IPO) that have diverged by more than 5x the typical arb threshold. Tesla earnings cross-contamination (C2, C3) adds a second trigger layer, as the same lagging NVIDIA monthly average market is infected by multiple independent negative triggers.","livePrice":0,"volume":0,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-07-01T03:59:59Z","yesAsk":72,"yesBid":71}],"catalyst":"NVIDIA earnings or compute pricing index update","timeHorizon":"2-4 weeks","risk":"A100 obsolescence from B200 ramp causes structural price suppression independent of monthly average","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXRTX5090MS-27JUN-0.250","KXA100WS-26JUL24-1.000","KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSLA-26JUL22-POW","KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSLA-26JUL22-ROAD"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.498Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-16T06:37:54.498Z","isStale":true,"slug":"c5-reverse-contagion-monthly-average-trigger-points-a100-too-34052950","createdAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.502Z"}