{"id":"349fe425-247e-4d7a-8024-9fc15c94d3e0","headline":"Wisconsin Governor Dem Primary: tightest arb at 95% confidence","pitch":"X7/X8 shows Francesca Hong at 40¢ on Kalshi vs 51¢ on Polymarket — an 11¢ gap at 95% confidence, the highest confidence score in the cross-venue dataset. This is a cleaner arb than the Fields Medal cluster because the primary election is a binary, well-defined outcome with a fixed resolution date. At 40¢, Kalshi is pricing 11 points of free edge vs Polymarket. Buy X7 on Kalshi; hedge with a short on X8. The 95% confidence of market equivalence means execution risk, not thesis risk, is the dominant variable.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Francesca Hong","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON","checkDate":"2026-08-11","currentPrice":40,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":390,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":22,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":11},"outcomeTarget":"X7 and X8 converge; buy X7 at 40¢ targets 51¢+ resolution","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":36,"volume":103676.44,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":36,"yesBid":33},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Francesca Hong","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de","checkDate":"2026-08-11","currentPrice":51,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":390,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":22,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":11},"outcomeTarget":"X7 and X8 converge; buy X7 at 40¢ targets 51¢+ resolution","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":51}],"catalyst":"Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary election result","timeHorizon":"Variable — primary date TBD","risk":"Markets resolve differently due to write-in or third-candidate scenarios; Kalshi liquidity may not fill at 40¢","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON","0x00925aafdbb3fbec14b49f343eb430ddb9cc1f827e5934b5513703d13f2851de"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-06-16T06:37:39.369Z","expiresAt":"2026-06-17T06:37:39.369Z","isStale":false,"slug":"wisconsin-governor-dem-primary-tightest-arb-at-95-confidence-349fe425","createdAt":"2026-06-16T06:37:39.374Z"}