{"id":"3f9c4350-2302-49de-8ee3-2a1abb8ef6f7","headline":"58c contagion lag: Democratic FL-23 lags CA-17 trigger by 78c","pitch":"C1 and C3 show Democratic House race triggers in CA-17 and CA-44 moving +78c delta while FL-23 Democratic contract sits at 82c — a -58c contagion gap. The uniform gap across 8 contract pairs (C1 through C8) at identical -58c magnitude signals a structural pricing inefficiency rather than noise. FL-23 at 82c should be re-rated toward trigger-implied fair value as election cycle information propagates. Buy the lagging FL-23 Democratic contract before contagion closes the gap.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"US House Election Contagion Lag Across Safe Seats","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for FL-23?: Democratic party","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSEFL23-26-D","checkDate":"2026-11-03","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":15,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":58,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"FL-23 Democratic contract reprices to 90c+, closing gap with trigger-implied fair value","themeNarrative":"All eight contagion gaps in the dataset share an identical -58c structure, with trigger districts moving 78c while lagging districts remain mispriced at 82-83c. This uniform gap suggests a systemic pricing lag across correlated House races rather than idiosyncratic risk. The edge is fading the laggards toward their fair value implied by the trigger contracts.","livePrice":86,"volume":8287.98,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":89,"yesBid":82}],"catalyst":"National Democratic polling shift or candidate fundraising data release updating cross-district models","timeHorizon":"Weeks to months (election cycle dependent)","risk":"FL-23 has genuine district-specific risk factors (incumbency, demographics) that justify the discount vs. CA safe seats","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSEFL23-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"58c-contagion-lag-democratic-fl-23-lags-ca-17-trigger-by-78c-3f9c4350","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z"}