{"id":"480f998d-23e9-440b-89b3-854742fd263e","headline":"Insurrection Act 24-cent cross-contract gap is pure arb opportunity","pitch":"L5 (Trump invokes Insurrection Act) prices at 23¢ while L6 (identical event, different venue/expiry) prices at 47¢ — a 24-cent gap on the same underlying event, well above the 5¢ arb threshold. Buy L5 at 23¢ and sell L6 at 47¢ for a locked 24-cent spread. With Trump's approval weak and midterms approaching, the political volatility premium in L6 is overstated relative to L5's pricing of the same constitutional event.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Midterm Election Repricing: House Lock vs Senate Chaos","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":23,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":734,"regime":"CRI 3.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Insurrection Act invocation spread collapses: L5 rises toward L6 or L6 falls toward L5","themeNarrative":"Democrats are priced at 81-82¢ to win the House, reflecting strong structural momentum, but the Senate remains a toss-up with key races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) creating genuine uncertainty. The Insurrection Act markets show a 24-cent gap between two identically-structured contracts (L5 at 23¢ vs L6 at 47¢), a cross-venue arb signal that demands attention. We play the Senate chaos hedge and the Insurrection Act arb simultaneously.","livePrice":25,"volume":291994.93,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":25,"yesBid":24},{"theme":"Midterm Election Repricing: House Lock vs Senate Chaos","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":47,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":734,"regime":"CRI 3.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Insurrection Act invocation spread collapses: L5 rises toward L6 or L6 falls toward L5","themeNarrative":"Democrats are priced at 81-82¢ to win the House, reflecting strong structural momentum, but the Senate remains a toss-up with key races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) creating genuine uncertainty. The Insurrection Act markets show a 24-cent gap between two identically-structured contracts (L5 at 23¢ vs L6 at 47¢), a cross-venue arb signal that demands attention. We play the Senate chaos hedge and the Insurrection Act arb simultaneously.","livePrice":42,"volume":181096.08,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":44,"yesBid":41}],"catalyst":"Any major domestic unrest event; congressional confrontation triggering executive response","timeHorizon":"16-24 weeks","risk":"Both contracts move to resolution simultaneously eliminating the spread; liquidity constraints prevent full position sizing on L5","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-19T06:36:55.196Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-20T06:36:55.196Z","isStale":true,"slug":"insurrection-act-24-cent-cross-contract-gap-is-pure-arb-oppo-480f998d","createdAt":"2026-07-19T06:36:55.207Z"}