{"id":"49905311-1e07-4a57-88c8-93f9498e87d7","headline":"Veto override at 10c offers 2087% IY on Democratic House thesis","pitch":"L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) sits at 10c with 2087% annualized yield. The election highlights confirm House control is 'likely Democratic' — a Democratic House majority is the necessary precondition for a veto override scenario. At 10c, the market is pricing a ~10% probability; if Democratic House probability is 60%+ and a contentious bill passes, the conditional probability of an override attempt is meaningfully higher. The 2087% IY is the primary signal; pair with L2 (30c, 94% IY) as the longer-duration version of the same thesis.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Election Regime Shifts and Legislative Power Bets","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2087,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES (at least one veto override before Jan 1, 2027)","themeNarrative":"The 2026 midterm election markets are undergoing regime shifts with Byron Donalds dominating the Florida GOP primary, Michigan Senate heating up, and House control leaning Democratic — all creating exploitable pricing gaps between legislative power markets and their downstream effects. L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2087% IY and L5 (Insurrection Act invocation) at 24c with 734% IY are the highest-yield policy plays, both pricing extremely low probabilities that thesis edges suggest are underweighted given the current political environment.","livePrice":10,"volume":12200.36,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":13,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"2026 Election Regime Shifts and Legislative Power Bets","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":30,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2087,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES (at least one veto override before Jan 1, 2027)","themeNarrative":"The 2026 midterm election markets are undergoing regime shifts with Byron Donalds dominating the Florida GOP primary, Michigan Senate heating up, and House control leaning Democratic — all creating exploitable pricing gaps between legislative power markets and their downstream effects. L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2087% IY and L5 (Insurrection Act invocation) at 24c with 734% IY are the highest-yield policy plays, both pricing extremely low probabilities that thesis edges suggest are underweighted given the current political environment.","livePrice":29,"volume":14465.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":30}],"catalyst":"November 2026 midterm results; any high-profile Trump veto of Democratic legislation","timeHorizon":"5 months","risk":"Republicans hold House or Senate; no veto opportunity materializes before 2027","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:11.769Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-29T06:37:11.769Z","isStale":false,"slug":"veto-override-at-10c-offers-2087-iy-on-democratic-house-thes-49905311","createdAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:11.773Z"}