{"id":"57927194-3567-4150-b7bc-836afde46834","headline":"Satoshi coins stay dormant: sell movement risk at 8c","pitch":"R3 shows Satoshi-moves-Bitcoin-in-2026 at 8c, transitioning from maker to neutral — liquidity is withdrawing, suggesting the 8c price is about to drift. MicroStrategy sell probabilities have been whipsawed (crashed 14c to 21c then surged 11c to 40c), but the Satoshi dormancy thesis is structurally independent and more stable. At 8c with a maker-to-neutral regime shift, the contract is mispriced low given the historical 17-year dormancy baseline. Buy the NO at 92c implied.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_no","markets":[{"theme":"Bitcoin Reserve Arb and Saylor Supply Squeeze","title":"Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":8,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1893,"regime":"CRI 11.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":0,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Contract resolves NO (no Satoshi movement in 2026)","themeNarrative":"A 12-cent cross-venue gap between Kalshi and Polymarket on the US National Bitcoin Reserve question represents the clearest arb in the dataset. Conflicting MicroStrategy sell signals across highlight periods suggest the narrative is still unsettled, but the net supply-bullish case is supported by regime data on Satoshi coin movement. The combination creates layered crypto trades from pure arb to directional conviction.","livePrice":8}],"catalyst":"No on-chain movement from Satoshi wallets through year-end","timeHorizon":"7 months","risk":"Satoshi or estate moves coins for any reason; black swan key-recovery event","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.294Z","expiresAt":"2026-05-25T06:36:56.294Z","isStale":false,"slug":"satoshi-coins-stay-dormant-sell-movement-risk-at-8c-57927194","createdAt":"2026-05-24T06:36:56.303Z"}