{"id":"5a686b1b-128a-4195-ada5-a33d1e162221","headline":"Fields Medal cross-venue arb: buy Kalshi, sell Polymarket at 19¢ gap","pitch":"X1/X2 shows Alexander Efimov at 6¢ on Kalshi vs 25¢ on Polymarket — a 19¢ cross-venue gap at 94% confidence. X5/X6 adds Logunov at 17¢ vs 31¢ (14¢ gap) and X9/X10 adds Pardon at 59¢ vs 69¢ (10¢ gap). The combined Fields Medal cluster offers three simultaneous arb legs on the same award, same outcome, different venues. Buy all three on Kalshi, sell/fade on Polymarket for a delta-neutral book; the 19¢ top gap is the lead leg. Total expected value across the cluster is the gap minus execution costs.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Alexander Efimov","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXFIELDS-26-AEFI","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":12,"volume":790.01,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":14,"yesBid":5},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Alexander Efimov","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0x8a8a885a2d36304757780431ebf620f4a31ab78a254020cb0f6300f9de81bed3","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":25,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":25},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: Aleksandr Logunov","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXFIELDS-26-ALOG","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":17,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":24,"volume":3990.44,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":24,"yesBid":17},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Aleksandr Logunov","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0xc8fd0988416e7299aaf762cf3c6c7a83e5c0ef4093e927ee48b1a85fe8062942","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":31,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":31},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?: John Pardon","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXFIELDS-26-JPAR","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":59,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":56,"volume":4232.46,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-12-31T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":61,"yesBid":56},{"theme":"Cross-Venue Arb: Kalshi Systematically Underprices Polymarket","title":"Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: John Pardon","venue":"polymarket","ticker":"0xdef79aab7ed2ea2b1cf53f2c20d353380ff1583eb7e4b29109dc7c667f0d298f","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":69,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2883,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":23,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":19},"outcomeTarget":"Prices converge to within 2¢ at announcement or Kalshi reprices toward Polymarket","themeNarrative":"Multiple identical-outcome markets show Kalshi pricing 10-19¢ below Polymarket on the same contracts, with 94-95% confidence of market equivalence. The Fields Medal cluster is the most actionable: three separate candidates show 9-19¢ gaps with high confidence, suggesting a structural liquidity discount on Kalshi rather than any information difference. The Wisconsin governor primary also shows an 11¢ gap with 95% confidence, the tightest arb cluster.","livePrice":69}],"catalyst":"Fields Medal announcement (typically July/August ICM Congress 2026)","timeHorizon":"2 months","risk":"Venue-specific resolution rules differ; Kalshi may use different eligibility criteria than Polymarket; liquidity on Kalshi legs is thin","edgeSize":null,"category":"event","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXFIELDS-26-AEFI","0x8a8a885a2d36304757780431ebf620f4a31ab78a254020cb0f6300f9de81bed3","KXFIELDS-26-ALOG","0xc8fd0988416e7299aaf762cf3c6c7a83e5c0ef4093e927ee48b1a85fe8062942","KXFIELDS-26-JPAR","0xdef79aab7ed2ea2b1cf53f2c20d353380ff1583eb7e4b29109dc7c667f0d298f"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-06-16T06:37:39.369Z","expiresAt":"2026-06-17T06:37:39.369Z","isStale":false,"slug":"fields-medal-cross-venue-arb-buy-kalshi-sell-polymarket-at-1-5a686b1b","createdAt":"2026-06-16T06:37:39.374Z"}