{"id":"6a7d8a06-27cd-4741-b771-2b013e6f099b","headline":"Veto Override Before 2027: 1,928 IY at 10c With Congressional Catalyst","pitch":"L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at just 10c with a 1,928 annualized IY — one of the highest non-weather yield opportunities in the dataset. Democrats are priced at 81c to hold the House (per highlights), which is the structural prerequisite for any override. The 10c price implies near-impossibility, but with Michigan Senate primaries heating up and midterm positioning intensifying, any legislative drama that forces a veto vote could reprice this sharply. The 1,928 IY compensates for the low base rate: a 1c move to 11c is a 10% gain with sub-6-month resolution.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Legislative Shock Probability: Insurrection Act and Veto Markets Diverge","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1928,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES or reprices to 20c+ on legislative catalyst","themeNarrative":"Two markets referencing Trump's Insurrection Act invocation are priced at 21c (L5, IY 806) and 43c (L6, IY 53) — a 22c cross-contract gap on what should resolve identically, representing a pure arbitrage. The veto override market (L1) at 10c with 1,928 IY is pricing near-impossibility before 2027, while L2 (ever) sits at 29c — consistent with the political highlights showing Democrats favored for the House at 81c but Republicans holding the Senate at 54c. The structural divergence between L5 and L6 is the cleanest trade in the legislative complex.","livePrice":10,"volume":12130.07,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"Legislative Shock Probability: Insurrection Act and Veto Markets Diverge","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":29,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1928,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":50,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES or reprices to 20c+ on legislative catalyst","themeNarrative":"Two markets referencing Trump's Insurrection Act invocation are priced at 21c (L5, IY 806) and 43c (L6, IY 53) — a 22c cross-contract gap on what should resolve identically, representing a pure arbitrage. The veto override market (L1) at 10c with 1,928 IY is pricing near-impossibility before 2027, while L2 (ever) sits at 29c — consistent with the political highlights showing Democrats favored for the House at 81c but Republicans holding the Senate at 54c. The structural divergence between L5 and L6 is the cleanest trade in the legislative complex.","livePrice":29,"volume":14462.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":29}],"catalyst":"Congressional vote on contentious legislation that Trump vetoes; midterm election results","timeHorizon":"5 months","risk":"Republican House prevents any override attempt; 10c goes to zero","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.498Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-16T06:37:54.498Z","isStale":false,"slug":"veto-override-before-2027-1928-iy-at-10c-with-congressional-6a7d8a06","createdAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.502Z"}