{"id":"6b6196f8-3a9b-4c80-a23d-423cb81bccc7","headline":"Congress Override Before 2027 at 9c Offers 2,592 IY Signal","pitch":"L1 prices a Congressional override of Trump's veto before 2027 at just 9c with an annualized IY of 2,592 — the highest legislative yield in the dataset. With Democrats favored to take the House at 83-85c (highlighted data), a Democratic House majority combined with Senate swing votes creates a realistic override scenario on a high-salience bill. The 164 IY on L2 (override ever) at 20c confirms the market systematically underprices this risk across timeframes.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Legislative Trigger Risk Underpriced by Market","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":9,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2592,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before Jan 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.","livePrice":15,"volume":12288.69,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":13,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"Legislative Trigger Risk Underpriced by Market","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":20,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2592,"regime":"CRI 10.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before Jan 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"Congressional override of Trump's veto and invocation of emergency executive powers trade at deeply depressed prices (9-41c) despite annualized yields of 59 to 2,592 — signaling chronic market underpricing of tail political risk. With House control leaning Democratic at 83-85c and Senate a toss-up, the structural conditions for an override attempt or executive escalation are building. These are low-probability but high-consequence events where even small probability upgrades generate outsized returns.","livePrice":31,"volume":14638.74,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":31,"yesBid":28}],"catalyst":"Democratic House victory in November 2026 midterms creating override-capable majority","timeHorizon":"20 weeks","risk":"Senate remains Republican-controlled; Trump avoids sending override-bait legislation; Democratic House majority proves insufficient","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.170Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-13T06:37:37.170Z","isStale":true,"slug":"congress-override-before-2027-at-9c-offers-2592-iy-signal-6b6196f8","createdAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.173Z"}