{"id":"72d4dafa-3868-4ce0-9ecf-e95d5e4e08de","headline":"MN-2 Democrat win at 19c: 73c contagion lag is the edge","pitch":"C2 shows a trigger delta of +18 on the Alaska margin-of-victory market while MN-2 lags at just 19c — a 73c contagion gap. C1 shows a 76c gap from the Ted Cruz trigger. Corroborating signal from C3 (OH-1 trigger with -26 delta, 60c gap) all point to the same lagging market being systematically underpriced. At 19c with three independent corroborating triggers all flashing buy, MN-2 Democratic win is the clearest contagion trade in the dataset.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Midterms: House-Senate Divergence Trade","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for MN-2?: Matt Little","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSEMN2-26-D","checkDate":"2026-11-04","currentPrice":42,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":116,"regime":"CRI 1.4","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":76,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"MN-2 Democrat win contract reprices to 40c+ from 19c entry","themeNarrative":"Democrats are heavy favorites at 85c for House control while Senate is a coin-flip at 52c Republican, creating a structural spread between chambers that contagion gaps in individual district races have not yet closed. The MN-2 lagging market at 19c is dramatically out of step with correlated district triggers showing 60–76c gaps, representing a pure contagion lag edge. Senate and House control markets offer a mean-reversion spread for sophisticated positioning.","livePrice":95,"volume":3522.04,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":99,"yesBid":86}],"catalyst":"Continued movement in correlated district races; early voting data releases","timeHorizon":"10–12 weeks (November 2026 midterms)","risk":"MN-2 has district-specific factors (incumbency, local economy) not captured by national triggers","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSEMN2-26-D","KXPOLITICSMENTION-26AUG25-MIDT"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-25T06:36:53.349Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-26T06:36:53.349Z","isStale":false,"slug":"mn-2-democrat-win-at-19c-73c-contagion-lag-is-the-edge-72d4dafa","createdAt":"2026-08-25T06:36:53.355Z"}