{"id":"776a414c-da86-4c08-9f89-abde00f056ce","headline":"Insurrection Act 23-point cross-venue arb — L5 vs L6 spread trade","pitch":"L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 21c on one venue while L6 prices the same event at 44c — a 23-point cross-venue gap that exceeds our 5c Signal Priority 1 threshold by 4.6x. Both contracts have positive IY (779 and 50 respectively). The structural explanation for the gap is liquidity differential, not information — L6's 44c is closer to fair value given the current political environment. Buy L5 at 21c, effectively capturing 23c of arb premium on identical binary outcomes.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":21,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","livePrice":21,"volume":280856.76,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":22,"yesBid":21},{"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":44,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":779,"regime":"CRI 3.8","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to converge with L6 above 35c, or event resolves Yes on either venue","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","livePrice":44,"volume":177403.16,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":45,"yesBid":44}],"catalyst":"Any domestic unrest event; Trump executive action announcement; congressional confrontation","timeHorizon":"Open-ended (presidency duration)","risk":"L6 is the mispriced leg and corrects downward to 21c; different resolution criteria across venues","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-23-point-cross-venue-arb-l5-vs-l6-spread-tr-776a414c","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z"}