{"id":"78d7d895-4c72-4831-8d12-cf4e16df731f","headline":"Veto override at 10c with 2,061 IY — contrarian buy on institutional resilience","pitch":"L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at just 10c with a 2,061 IY — implying 90% confidence that Congress has zero capacity to check executive power for the next 5 months. With midterm election markets pricing Democrats at 82c to win the House (per highlights) and the Senate as a toss-up, legislative dynamics will shift. The 2,061 IY at 10c offers exceptional return for a position that profits from any single successful override — a deeply out-of-consensus but structurally supported bet.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2061,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":10,"volume":12200.36,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":30,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2061,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":29,"volume":14465.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":30},{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":2061,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":13,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress successfully overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":27,"volume":4952,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":27}],"catalyst":"Democratic House majority materializing post-midterms + high-profile veto target","timeHorizon":"5 months","risk":"Republicans retain House; no veto situation arises; contract expires worthless","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.592Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:00.592Z","isStale":false,"slug":"veto-override-at-10c-with-2061-iy-contrarian-buy-on-institut-78d7d895","createdAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.595Z"}