{"id":"87ae76de-22d4-4f28-b1a0-73e2c3db0c07","headline":"Insurrection Act 27c cross-contract arb: L5 vs L6 same event","pitch":"L5 and L6 both resolve on whether Trump invokes the Insurrection Act but are priced at 18c and 45c respectively — a 27c cross-contract gap that exceeds our 5c arb threshold by 5.4x. This is the clearest arb structure in the dataset: buy L5 at 18c and sell L6 at 45c for a locked 27c spread on the same underlying binary outcome. The L1 veto override at 5c / 5,402% IY provides a complementary high-yield satellite position — if Congress is emboldened enough to override, Insurrection Act invocation probability rises, compressing the L5-L6 spread further.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Executive Power Escalation: Trump Authority Markets Mispriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":18,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1295,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5-L6 spread compresses from 27c to <10c; L1 moves from 5c to 15c+ on veto override news","themeNarrative":"The Trump executive authority cluster shows a fragmented pricing structure: Insurrection Act markets (L5 at 18c, L6 at 45c) imply a 27c spread on what should be the same underlying probability, while the Taft-Hartley Act (L3) at 27c with 112% IY trades cheaply relative to escalating labor and trade tensions. The veto override market (L1) at 5c with 5,402% IY is an extreme tail yield opportunity given Congressional dynamics. These markets are pricing executive escalation as independent low-probability events when in fact they are correlated expressions of the same regime.","livePrice":18,"volume":327072.58,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":19,"yesBid":18},{"theme":"Executive Power Escalation: Trump Authority Markets Mispriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":45,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1295,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5-L6 spread compresses from 27c to <10c; L1 moves from 5c to 15c+ on veto override news","themeNarrative":"The Trump executive authority cluster shows a fragmented pricing structure: Insurrection Act markets (L5 at 18c, L6 at 45c) imply a 27c spread on what should be the same underlying probability, while the Taft-Hartley Act (L3) at 27c with 112% IY trades cheaply relative to escalating labor and trade tensions. The veto override market (L1) at 5c with 5,402% IY is an extreme tail yield opportunity given Congressional dynamics. These markets are pricing executive escalation as independent low-probability events when in fact they are correlated expressions of the same regime.","livePrice":42,"volume":217437.19,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":49,"yesBid":47},{"theme":"Executive Power Escalation: Trump Authority Markets Mispriced","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":5,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1295,"regime":"CRI 4.6","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5-L6 spread compresses from 27c to <10c; L1 moves from 5c to 15c+ on veto override news","themeNarrative":"The Trump executive authority cluster shows a fragmented pricing structure: Insurrection Act markets (L5 at 18c, L6 at 45c) imply a 27c spread on what should be the same underlying probability, while the Taft-Hartley Act (L3) at 27c with 112% IY trades cheaply relative to escalating labor and trade tensions. The veto override market (L1) at 5c with 5,402% IY is an extreme tail yield opportunity given Congressional dynamics. These markets are pricing executive escalation as independent low-probability events when in fact they are correlated expressions of the same regime.","livePrice":9,"volume":12516.9,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":10,"yesBid":5}],"catalyst":"Any domestic civil unrest, labor strike, or Congressional standoff that forces Trump's hand on executive authority tools","timeHorizon":"4-18 weeks","risk":"L5 and L6 resolve differently due to definitional differences in contract terms; arb does not close as expected","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-26T06:36:44.609Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-27T06:36:44.609Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-27c-cross-contract-arb-l5-vs-l6-same-event-87ae76de","createdAt":"2026-08-26T06:36:44.616Z"}