{"id":"91d4ad9b-5304-41d8-ae66-d3e6506d0af1","headline":"NH-1 and IL-17 lag 90pts behind trigger — sweep the basket","pitch":"C5 and C7 show NH-1 (78¢) and IL-17 (82¢) lagging 90pt and 87pt behind the Begich trigger collapse. C6 confirms NH-1 via the Barlow trigger at 89pt gap. Buying both at current prices captures the contagion cascade before it fully propagates. The highlights separately note Democrats are 85¢ favorites to win the House overall, making individual district longs structurally supported. Basket approach diversifies single-district resolution risk.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"US House Contagion Lag: Democrats Under-Priced Across Districts","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NH-1?: Democratic party","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSENH1-26-D","checkDate":"2026-11-10","currentPrice":78,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":23,"regime":"CRI 3.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":90,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES on both NH-1 and IL-17 Democratic wins","themeNarrative":"Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.","livePrice":89,"volume":2946,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":90,"yesBid":84},{"theme":"US House Contagion Lag: Democrats Under-Priced Across Districts","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for IL-17?: Eric Sorensen","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSEIL17-26-D","checkDate":"2026-11-10","currentPrice":82,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":23,"regime":"CRI 3.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":90,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES on both NH-1 and IL-17 Democratic wins","themeNarrative":"Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.","livePrice":96,"volume":2202.7,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":95,"yesBid":79}],"catalyst":"District-level polling releases; national generic ballot shifts","timeHorizon":"2-3 months","risk":"Local candidate scandal; NH-1 historically competitive — genuine toss-up risk","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSENH1-26-D","HOUSEIL17-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-16T06:36:46.298Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-17T06:36:46.298Z","isStale":true,"slug":"nh-1-and-il-17-lag-90pts-behind-trigger-sweep-the-basket-91d4ad9b","createdAt":"2026-08-16T06:36:46.309Z"}