{"id":"adca2b1c-d087-48e7-980a-9b14e3cdb73c","headline":"59-point contagion gap in Claude Opus score markets — sell the laggard","pitch":"C1 and C2 show trigger contracts (above 1460/1465) have fallen 34 and 32 delta points respectively, while the lagging above-1505 contract remains at 60c — a -59c gap. By logical necessity, above-1505 cannot resolve YES unless all lower thresholds also resolve YES, meaning the laggard is structurally overpriced. C8 confirms the reverse: the above-1460 contract at 60c is underpriced relative to above-1505 at 60c given the trigger has already moved. Sell the 60c above-1505 contract immediately.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"theme":"Claude Opus Score Contagion Lag Creates Structural Arb","title":"next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1505","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505","checkDate":"2026-08-10","currentPrice":60,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":154,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":59,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Above-1505 contract reprices down to below 30c to close gap","themeNarrative":"The Claude Opus debut score markets show a textbook contagion structure: lower-threshold contracts (above 1460, 1465, 1470) have already repriced down 24-34 delta points, while the above-1505 lagging contract remains stuck at 60c — creating 51-59 point gaps that are pure structural lag, not new information. These markets must converge by definition since a score above 1505 logically implies above 1460/1465/1470, making the overpriced upper-threshold contracts the clean short.","livePrice":99,"volume":1933,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":100,"yesBid":60},{"theme":"Claude Opus Score Contagion Lag Creates Structural Arb","title":"next Claude Opus debut score?: Above 1500","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1500","checkDate":"2026-08-10","currentPrice":60,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":154,"regime":"CRI 1.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":59,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Above-1505 contract reprices down to below 30c to close gap","themeNarrative":"The Claude Opus debut score markets show a textbook contagion structure: lower-threshold contracts (above 1460, 1465, 1470) have already repriced down 24-34 delta points, while the above-1505 lagging contract remains stuck at 60c — creating 51-59 point gaps that are pure structural lag, not new information. These markets must converge by definition since a score above 1505 logically implies above 1460/1465/1470, making the overpriced upper-threshold contracts the clean short.","livePrice":99,"volume":1782,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":100,"yesBid":60}],"catalyst":"Claude Opus official benchmark score release","timeHorizon":"1-2 weeks","risk":"Markets on different resolution criteria or timing; liquidity prevents full arb capture","edgeSize":null,"category":"crypto","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505","KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1500","KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1460"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.919Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:02.919Z","isStale":false,"slug":"59-point-contagion-gap-in-claude-opus-score-markets-sell-the-adca2b1c","createdAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.925Z"}