{"id":"b305d7da-1698-4918-9bad-d10c1053c657","headline":"Insurrection Act 20c cross-market gap — buy cheap, sell expensive","pitch":"L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 22c while L6 prices the same event at 42c — a 20c cross-market spread on economically equivalent outcomes. This exceeds the 5c cross-venue arb threshold by 4x. The 812 IY on L5 vs 55 IY on L6 confirms L5 is the high-yield long leg and L6 is the short. With Trump's approval weak and legislative gridlock confirmed by L1/L2 pricing, structural volatility in executive action markets is elevated.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":22,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":812,"regime":"CRI 3.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices toward L6 (42c) or L6 fades toward L5 (22c) as consensus forms","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":23,"volume":291484.43,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":23,"yesBid":22},{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":42,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":812,"regime":"CRI 3.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices toward L6 (42c) or L6 fades toward L5 (22c) as consensus forms","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":45,"volume":180692.03,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":45,"yesBid":42},{"theme":"Policy Uncertainty Discount — Trump Actions Mispriced","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":812,"regime":"CRI 3.5","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":5,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices toward L6 (42c) or L6 fades toward L5 (22c) as consensus forms","themeNarrative":"With Trump tariff probability at 83c and markets pricing significant policy disruption, downstream legislative checks are dramatically underpriced. L1 prices a Congressional veto override before 2027 at 10c with a 2,061 IY — the market is assigning near-zero probability to any institutional pushback despite documented political stress. Meanwhile, Insurrection Act invocation (L5 at 22c, L6 at 42c) shows a 20c cross-market gap between two versions of the same event — a structural arb within the policy space.","livePrice":10,"volume":12200.36,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":10}],"catalyst":"Any domestic civil unrest event or Trump executive order escalation","timeHorizon":"6-12 months","risk":"Gap persists due to different contract specifications (tenor or trigger conditions)","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.592Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:00.592Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-20c-cross-market-gap-buy-cheap-sell-expensi-b305d7da","createdAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.595Z"}