{"id":"bbd4befd-992b-4938-94bd-d2a084bdf392","headline":"Insurrection Act invocation cross-venue gap: L5 at 24c vs L6 at 41c","pitch":"L5 and L6 both cover Trump invoking the Insurrection Act but show a 17-cent cross-venue gap (24c vs 41c) — well above the 5c arb threshold. L5 offers 734% IY vs L6 at just 58% IY, confirming L5 is the mispriced leg. Buy L5 at 24c as the underpriced side; the regime shift environment (L3 Taft-Hartley at 27c, oil/gas surging, VIX elevated) provides fundamental support for executive action risk being underpriced at 24c. The 17c gap is the primary edge; the macro backdrop is confirmation.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"2026 Election Regime Shifts and Legislative Power Bets","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":24,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":734,"regime":"CRI 3.2","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 and L6 converge; L5 resolves YES","themeNarrative":"The 2026 midterm election markets are undergoing regime shifts with Byron Donalds dominating the Florida GOP primary, Michigan Senate heating up, and House control leaning Democratic — all creating exploitable pricing gaps between legislative power markets and their downstream effects. L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2087% IY and L5 (Insurrection Act invocation) at 24c with 734% IY are the highest-yield policy plays, both pricing extremely low probabilities that thesis edges suggest are underweighted given the current political environment.","livePrice":25,"volume":291994.93,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":25,"yesBid":24},{"theme":"2026 Election Regime Shifts and Legislative Power Bets","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":41,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":734,"regime":"CRI 3.2","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 and L6 converge; L5 resolves YES","themeNarrative":"The 2026 midterm election markets are undergoing regime shifts with Byron Donalds dominating the Florida GOP primary, Michigan Senate heating up, and House control leaning Democratic — all creating exploitable pricing gaps between legislative power markets and their downstream effects. L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2087% IY and L5 (Insurrection Act invocation) at 24c with 734% IY are the highest-yield policy plays, both pricing extremely low probabilities that thesis edges suggest are underweighted given the current political environment.","livePrice":42,"volume":181096.08,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":44,"yesBid":41},{"theme":"2026 Election Regime Shifts and Legislative Power Bets","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":734,"regime":"CRI 3.2","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 and L6 converge; L5 resolves YES","themeNarrative":"The 2026 midterm election markets are undergoing regime shifts with Byron Donalds dominating the Florida GOP primary, Michigan Senate heating up, and House control leaning Democratic — all creating exploitable pricing gaps between legislative power markets and their downstream effects. L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 10c with 2087% IY and L5 (Insurrection Act invocation) at 24c with 734% IY are the highest-yield policy plays, both pricing extremely low probabilities that thesis edges suggest are underweighted given the current political environment.","livePrice":27,"volume":4952,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":27}],"catalyst":"Any major domestic unrest event, labor action, or border crisis triggering executive action","timeHorizon":"6-12 months","risk":"Legal constraints and political cost prevent invocation; gap closes at L5 drifting up rather than L6 down","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:11.769Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-29T06:37:11.769Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-invocation-cross-venue-gap-l5-at-24c-vs-l6-bbd4befd","createdAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:11.773Z"}