{"id":"c0d8929a-02cc-4111-9bf7-5ee0b1aad9c6","headline":"NVIDIA A100 Contagion: 79-Point Gap Is the Largest Edge in Data","pitch":"C1 reveals a -79 gap: the A100 hourly compute trigger has moved -40 delta while the monthly average lagging market remains at 68c — implying a 79c mispricing that has not yet propagated. C2 and C3 add corroborating pressure from Tesla earnings (-23 delta trigger, same lagging market at 68c, -74 gap). Three independent negative triggers are all pointing at the same 68c lagging market, which by contagion mechanics should be trading closer to 20-30c. This is the clearest structural edge in the dataset: sell the lagging NVIDIA monthly average market referenced by C1, C2, C3.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Contagion: 60-79 Point Gaps Demand Attention","title":"Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in June 2027?: Above $0.25","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXRTX5090MS-27JUN-0.250","checkDate":"2026-08-01","currentPrice":67,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":51,"regime":"CRI 2.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":79,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Lagging NVIDIA monthly average market reprices from 68c to 25-35c range","themeNarrative":"The NVIDIA compute complex shows the largest contagion gaps in the entire dataset — C1 shows a -79 gap where the A100 trigger has moved -40 delta but the monthly average lagging market sits at 68c, and C5 shows a +60 gap in the opposite direction. These are not noise; they represent markets in the same fundamental group (Tech/IPO) that have diverged by more than 5x the typical arb threshold. Tesla earnings cross-contamination (C2, C3) adds a second trigger layer, as the same lagging NVIDIA monthly average market is infected by multiple independent negative triggers.","livePrice":0,"volume":0,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-07-01T03:59:59Z","yesAsk":72,"yesBid":71}],"catalyst":"NVIDIA A100 spot pricing data release; Tesla next earnings call","timeHorizon":"1-3 weeks","risk":"New AI infrastructure demand surge re-prices compute upward faster than trigger propagation","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXRTX5090MS-27JUN-0.250","KXA100WS-26JUL24-1.000","KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSLA-26JUL22-POW","KXEARNINGSMENTIONTSLA-26JUL22-ROAD"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.498Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-16T06:37:54.498Z","isStale":true,"slug":"nvidia-a100-contagion-79-point-gap-is-the-largest-edge-in-da-c0d8929a","createdAt":"2026-07-15T06:37:54.502Z"}