{"id":"cc7bcab7-4fd6-44f5-9a65-87951fea4fa2","headline":"Beast Industries and Deel IPO Before Sep 1 — 64,000% IY Extreme Yield Harvest","pitch":"Y2 and Y3 both price at 6¢ with 64,179% implied yield over just 9 days — the second-highest IY cluster in the dataset. While individually low probability (~6%), a basket approach across Y2, Y3, Y4, and Y6 (Google Gemini 3.5 release at 7¢, 61,306% IY) creates a diversified extreme-yield harvest. Any single YES resolution returns 15-16x on that leg. The basket of four at 6-7¢ each costs 25¢ total with maximum loss of 25¢ and expected value above cost if even one resolves YES.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","title":"When will Beast Industries IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXIPOBEASTINDUSTRIES-26SEP01","checkDate":"2026-09-01","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","livePrice":6,"volume":78,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":1,"yesBid":0},{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","title":"When will Deel IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXIPODEEL-26SEP01","checkDate":"2026-09-01","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","livePrice":6,"volume":1156,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":4,"yesBid":0},{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","title":"Will the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announce a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXRESTOREDEFERRAL-26JUL-26SEP01","checkDate":"2026-09-01","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","livePrice":8,"volume":2435.44,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":9,"yesBid":6},{"theme":"NVIDIA Compute Pricing Contagion Lag Creates Arb Window","title":"Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26AUG31","checkDate":"2026-09-01","currentPrice":7,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":64179,"regime":"CRI 15.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"At least one of Y2/Y3/Y4/Y6 resolves YES before September 1, 2026","themeNarrative":"The AI infrastructure pricing market shows a 51-52 cent contagion gap between higher-strike and lower-strike NVIDIA H200 compute contracts (C7, C8), where the trigger contract has already moved sharply negative while lagging contracts sit at just 11¢. This is a textbook contagion lag edge — the information has been processed by the lead contract but hasn't propagated to related strikes. The near-term IPO yield cluster (Y2, Y3, Y6) reinforces the thesis that AI infrastructure demand signals are misfiring across markets.","livePrice":9,"volume":139828.03,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-08-31T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":9,"yesBid":7}],"catalyst":"IPO filing confirmation, SEC S-1 submission, or Google product announcement before Sep 1, 2026","timeHorizon":"9 days","risk":"All four contracts expire worthless — maximum loss is entry cost; no partial recovery","edgeSize":null,"category":"event","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.284Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-24T06:36:50.284Z","isStale":false,"slug":"beast-industries-and-deel-ipo-before-sep-1-64000-iy-extreme-cc7bcab7","createdAt":"2026-08-23T06:36:50.292Z"}