{"id":"d310d5c9-2013-45b0-a73b-75960eef8e83","headline":"Insurrection Act cross-contract 19c gap demands a convergence trade","pitch":"L5 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 23c while L6 prices the same underlying event at 42c — a 19c gap on identical resolution criteria, exceeding the 5c cross-venue arb threshold. Buy L5 at 23c and sell L6 at 42c for a near risk-free 19c spread. With M16 (US commercial launches) down 65 delta and macro risk-off accelerating, political volatility is rising, making convergence to fair value likely before year-end.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"US Political Regime Risk Underpriced Across Executive Actions","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":23,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":772,"regime":"CRI 3.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to 35c+ and L6 falls to 35c (convergence at fair value ~35c)","themeNarrative":"Legislative catalyst markets show Trump's executive action probabilities are priced with wide dispersion across venues, with Insurrection Act contracts ranging from 23c to 42c — a 19-point cross-reference gap suggesting systematic mispricing. With oil surging, VIX elevated, and risk-off conditions prevailing, the probability of aggressive executive action rises nonlinearly, while Congress override markets at 10-30c offer asymmetric long exposure to institutional pushback.","livePrice":24,"volume":291642.86,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":24,"yesBid":23},{"theme":"US Political Regime Risk Underpriced Across Executive Actions","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":42,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":772,"regime":"CRI 3.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to 35c+ and L6 falls to 35c (convergence at fair value ~35c)","themeNarrative":"Legislative catalyst markets show Trump's executive action probabilities are priced with wide dispersion across venues, with Insurrection Act contracts ranging from 23c to 42c — a 19-point cross-reference gap suggesting systematic mispricing. With oil surging, VIX elevated, and risk-off conditions prevailing, the probability of aggressive executive action rises nonlinearly, while Congress override markets at 10-30c offer asymmetric long exposure to institutional pushback.","livePrice":45,"volume":181046.28,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":44,"yesBid":42},{"theme":"US Political Regime Risk Underpriced Across Executive Actions","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":772,"regime":"CRI 3.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":4,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L5 reprices to 35c+ and L6 falls to 35c (convergence at fair value ~35c)","themeNarrative":"Legislative catalyst markets show Trump's executive action probabilities are priced with wide dispersion across venues, with Insurrection Act contracts ranging from 23c to 42c — a 19-point cross-reference gap suggesting systematic mispricing. With oil surging, VIX elevated, and risk-off conditions prevailing, the probability of aggressive executive action rises nonlinearly, while Congress override markets at 10-30c offer asymmetric long exposure to institutional pushback.","livePrice":27,"volume":4952,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":27}],"catalyst":"Any domestic unrest event or Trump policy escalation triggering Insurrection Act discussion","timeHorizon":"3-6 months","risk":"Contracts resolve on different criteria or venues; legal interpretation divergence","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.919Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-28T06:37:02.919Z","isStale":false,"slug":"insurrection-act-cross-contract-19c-gap-demands-a-convergenc-d310d5c9","createdAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:02.925Z"}