{"id":"dd3a8ea1-4d21-40cd-9d85-f34b96e67344","headline":"Gas prices above $4.18 regime is fading — fade the spike at 25c","pitch":"R3 (above $4.16) just shifted to taker at 53c while R4 (above $4.18) sits at 25c with a taker-to-neutral regime shift signal — a 28c spread between adjacent strike levels implies the market sees $4.16-$4.18 as the likely ceiling. The $4.22 and $4.24 strikes (R5 at 6c, R6 at 3c) confirm the distribution is sharply truncated above $4.18. Selling the $4.18+ contract at 25c captures the regime-transition edge as smart money exits above that level.","conviction":"medium","direction":"sell","markets":[{"theme":"Stagflation Trap Forces Fed Into Corner","title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.16?: Above 4.16","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-4.16","checkDate":"2026-07-31","currentPrice":53,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":6592,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":32,"spreadCents":11,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gas prices settle below $4.18 on July 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Rising commodity prices (oil +3.7%, nat gas surging) are colliding with a Fed priced at 94% probability of no action, creating a classic stagflation setup. Markets are systematically underpricing inflation pass-through: the edge data shows 63-54 point effective edges on CPI and dissent markets. The contagion from energy to core CPI has a structural lag that prediction markets have not yet absorbed.","livePrice":49,"volume":10830.08,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-31T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":55,"yesBid":44},{"theme":"Stagflation Trap Forces Fed Into Corner","title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.18?: Above 4.18","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-4.18","checkDate":"2026-07-31","currentPrice":25,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":6592,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":32,"spreadCents":11,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gas prices settle below $4.18 on July 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Rising commodity prices (oil +3.7%, nat gas surging) are colliding with a Fed priced at 94% probability of no action, creating a classic stagflation setup. Markets are systematically underpricing inflation pass-through: the edge data shows 63-54 point effective edges on CPI and dissent markets. The contagion from energy to core CPI has a structural lag that prediction markets have not yet absorbed.","livePrice":29,"volume":10156.37,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-31T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":27,"yesBid":26},{"theme":"Stagflation Trap Forces Fed Into Corner","title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.22?: Above 4.22","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-4.22","checkDate":"2026-07-31","currentPrice":6,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":6592,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":32,"spreadCents":11,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gas prices settle below $4.18 on July 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Rising commodity prices (oil +3.7%, nat gas surging) are colliding with a Fed priced at 94% probability of no action, creating a classic stagflation setup. Markets are systematically underpricing inflation pass-through: the edge data shows 63-54 point effective edges on CPI and dissent markets. The contagion from energy to core CPI has a structural lag that prediction markets have not yet absorbed.","livePrice":7,"volume":10239.52,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-31T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":7,"yesBid":6},{"theme":"Stagflation Trap Forces Fed Into Corner","title":"Will average **gas prices** be above $4.24?: Above 4.24","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXAAAGASM-26JUL31-4.24","checkDate":"2026-07-31","currentPrice":3,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":6592,"regime":"CRI 1.1","edgeCents":32,"spreadCents":11,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Gas prices settle below $4.18 on July 31, 2026","themeNarrative":"Rising commodity prices (oil +3.7%, nat gas surging) are colliding with a Fed priced at 94% probability of no action, creating a classic stagflation setup. Markets are systematically underpricing inflation pass-through: the edge data shows 63-54 point effective edges on CPI and dissent markets. The contagion from energy to core CPI has a structural lag that prediction markets have not yet absorbed.","livePrice":4,"volume":11639.16,"status":"active","closeTime":"2026-07-31T03:59:00Z","yesAsk":3,"yesBid":2}],"catalyst":"Weekly AAA gas price report due July 31, 2026","timeHorizon":"5 days","risk":"Geopolitical escalation in Strait of Hormuz drives WTI above $90 and gasoline above $4.25","edgeSize":null,"category":"macro","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.592Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-27T06:37:00.592Z","isStale":false,"slug":"gas-prices-above-418-regime-is-fading-fade-the-spike-at-25c-dd3a8ea1","createdAt":"2026-07-26T06:37:00.595Z"}