{"id":"dd893bc5-8a6f-4c54-ae93-8319e2e6b3bd","headline":"90-point contagion gap in NY-22 vs VA-03 — sell the stale price","pitch":"C1 shows a 64-delta move in NY-22 Democrat (trigger) while VA-03 Democrat (lagging) sits at just 11¢ — a 90-point gap, the largest in the dataset and the clearest lag arbitrage available. Simultaneously, C2/C3/C4 show the reverse: NC-12, PA-04, and NY-26 Democrat triggers have all dropped 76-77 points while NY-22 Democrat remains anchored at 84¢ — an -87-point gap screaming for correction. The 84¢ price on NY-22 Democrat is a stale quote in a market that has repriced every correlated seat lower; sell NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ targeting a move toward 40-50¢.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"theme":"US House Race Contagion Gaps Screaming Mispricing","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for VA-03?: Democratic party","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXHOUSERACE-VA03-26-D","checkDate":"2026-08-20","currentPrice":11,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":589,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":90,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"NY-22 Democrat price corrects to below 50¢ or resolves NO","themeNarrative":"NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ is the anchor price in a cluster of correlated House race markets, yet multiple trigger markets have sold off 70-77 points while NY-22 has barely moved — creating contagion gaps of 85-90 points. These gaps represent pure lag arbitrage: when structurally correlated markets diverge this sharply, mean reversion to a new equilibrium is the highest-probability trade available. The direction is sell NY-22 Democrat (or buy the lagging contracts hedged), as the trigger market repricing is the leading signal.","livePrice":95,"volume":153,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":99,"yesBid":97},{"theme":"US House Race Contagion Gaps Screaming Mispricing","title":"Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-22?: Democratic party","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSENY22-26-D","checkDate":"2026-08-20","currentPrice":84,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":589,"regime":"CRI 8.1","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":90,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"NY-22 Democrat price corrects to below 50¢ or resolves NO","themeNarrative":"NY-22 Democrat at 84¢ is the anchor price in a cluster of correlated House race markets, yet multiple trigger markets have sold off 70-77 points while NY-22 has barely moved — creating contagion gaps of 85-90 points. These gaps represent pure lag arbitrage: when structurally correlated markets diverge this sharply, mean reversion to a new equilibrium is the highest-probability trade available. The direction is sell NY-22 Democrat (or buy the lagging contracts hedged), as the trigger market repricing is the leading signal.","livePrice":94,"volume":2188,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":94,"yesBid":94}],"catalyst":"Broader Democratic House race repricing as correlated districts resolve; any national polling shift","timeHorizon":"30-60 days","risk":"NY-22 has district-specific factors (incumbent strength, local fundraising) that insulate it from national wave repricing","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXHOUSERACE-VA03-26-D","HOUSENY22-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-06-20T06:37:51.612Z","expiresAt":"2026-06-21T06:37:51.612Z","isStale":true,"slug":"90-point-contagion-gap-in-ny-22-vs-va-03-sell-the-stale-pric-dd893bc5","createdAt":"2026-06-20T06:37:51.617Z"}