{"id":"e8de20a3-6b2d-46b5-af63-490e1ff26128","headline":"Congress veto override at 10c before 2027 — buy the tail risk","pitch":"L1 prices Congress overriding a Trump veto before 2027 at just 10c with an IY of 1,863 — a rich yield on what is arguably a non-trivial political tail. L2 prices the same event on an open-ended basis at 29c, creating a 19c time-premium gap for the pre-2027 version. With Democrats at 82c to retake the House (per highlights) and the Senate a coin-flip, the procedural conditions for an override are more plausible than 10c implies. The 1,863 IY sweetens the entry significantly.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","livePrice":12,"volume":12120.07,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"Policy Escalation Risk Mispriced — Contrarian Vol Buy","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":29,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":1863,"regime":"CRI 9.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":17,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Congress votes to override a Trump veto before January 1 2027","themeNarrative":"Markets are pricing extreme complacency on executive action risk: Congress veto override sits at 10c (L1) while Insurrection Act invocation ranges 21-44c across venues (L5, L6) — a 23c cross-venue gap that is our most actionable policy arb. With NATO media availability active (M1 at 64c, +58 delta) and Trump's bilateral Turkey meetings in flux (M5 at 13c, -55 delta), the policy signal is noisy but skewed toward surprise. This is a contrarian theme against the consensus view that executive power remains constrained.","livePrice":29,"volume":14459.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":29}],"catalyst":"Democrats retaking House in November 2026 midterms; high-profile veto on popular legislation","timeHorizon":"6 months","risk":"Republicans hold House; override requires 2/3 supermajority regardless of chamber control","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:07.895Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-10T06:37:07.895Z","isStale":false,"slug":"congress-veto-override-at-10c-before-2027-buy-the-tail-risk-e8de20a3","createdAt":"2026-07-09T06:37:11.761Z"}