{"id":"ec295aac-4d53-493b-9602-47eb2d49a39b","headline":"Congress veto override at 4¢ offers 4,484% IY — contrarian lottery with edge","pitch":"L1 (Congress overrides Trump veto before 2027) at 4¢ carries a 4,484% implied yield — the highest IY in the legislative dataset at a price where expected value math is compelling if the true probability is even 8-10¢. L2 (same concept, no deadline) sits at 27¢ with 104% IY, implying the market assigns near-zero probability to a pre-2027 override specifically. The 23-point gap between L1 (4¢) and L2 (27¢) on the same underlying event with different time horizons is the structural edge: L1 is pricing a ~85% discount to L2, which is too steep given that any override attempt would happen within the L1 window anyway. Buy L1 at 4¢ as a high-IY, small-size position.","conviction":"low","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"Fed Hawkishness Entrenched — Policy Markets Underpricing Tail Risk","title":"Will Congress override Trump's veto before 2027?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":4,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":4484,"regime":"CRI 24.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":250,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES: Congress overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"The Fed highlight confirms 78% probability of zero cuts year-end with a July hike priced at 23¢, while CPI regime data shows conflicting signals: R3 (CPI above 0.1% in June) flipped from taker to neutral at 7¢ suggesting a soft print, but R4 (core CPI above 0.3% in May) just flipped to taker. Congressional override and executive action markets offer high implied yield at tight spreads as the hawkish regime creates policy volatility. This is a contrarian theme — while consensus is 'no cuts,' we find mispriced tail risks in legislative and executive action markets.","livePrice":10,"volume":12200.36,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":15,"yesBid":10},{"theme":"Fed Hawkishness Entrenched — Policy Markets Underpricing Tail Risk","title":"Will Congress ever override Trump's veto?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXVETOOVERRIDE-29JAN20","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":4484,"regime":"CRI 24.0","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":250,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"L1 resolves YES: Congress overrides at least one Trump veto before January 1, 2027","themeNarrative":"The Fed highlight confirms 78% probability of zero cuts year-end with a July hike priced at 23¢, while CPI regime data shows conflicting signals: R3 (CPI above 0.1% in June) flipped from taker to neutral at 7¢ suggesting a soft print, but R4 (core CPI above 0.3% in May) just flipped to taker. Congressional override and executive action markets offer high implied yield at tight spreads as the hawkish regime creates policy volatility. This is a contrarian theme — while consensus is 'no cuts,' we find mispriced tail risks in legislative and executive action markets.","livePrice":29,"volume":14465.38,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":30}],"catalyst":"Budget reconciliation fight, debt ceiling standoff, or major legislative conflict before year-end 2026","timeHorizon":"180 days","risk":"Republican House majority makes override structurally near-impossible; 4¢ may still be generous","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-06-20T06:37:51.612Z","expiresAt":"2026-06-21T06:37:51.612Z","isStale":true,"slug":"congress-veto-override-at-4-offers-4484-iy-contrarian-lotter-ec295aac","createdAt":"2026-06-20T06:37:51.617Z"}