{"id":"ec4858af-2693-4847-82fe-812cc12c2094","headline":"98pt contagion gap: CA-47 Democratic win massively under-repriced","pitch":"C1 shows a 98pt gap — trigger (Begich -47¢ delta) has cratered while CA-47 Democratic win lags at 85¢. C2 confirms the same gap (97pts) via the Barlow trigger. Two independent Republican candidate collapses both point to the same lagging market. At 85¢, the Democratic CA-47 win should be repricing toward 90-95¢. The edge is the 10-15¢ upside with defined resolution at the November 2026 election.","conviction":"high","direction":"buy_yes","markets":[{"theme":"US House Contagion Lag: Democrats Under-Priced Across Districts","title":"Will Democratic win the House race for CA-47?: Dave Min","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"HOUSECA47-26-D","checkDate":"2026-11-10","currentPrice":85,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":14,"regime":"CRI 5.7","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":null,"contagionGap":98,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"YES — Democrat wins CA-47 House race","themeNarrative":"Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.","livePrice":94,"volume":3093.8,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-11-03T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":99,"yesBid":94}],"catalyst":"Republican candidate polling continues to deteriorate; Democratic candidate consolidation","timeHorizon":"2-3 months","risk":"Late Republican candidate surge; third-party spoiler effect","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["HOUSECA47-26-D"],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-16T06:36:46.298Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-17T06:36:46.298Z","isStale":true,"slug":"98pt-contagion-gap-ca-47-democratic-win-massively-under-repr-ec4858af","createdAt":"2026-08-16T06:36:46.309Z"}