{"id":"ed086637-72f5-4519-bbde-ae638cfe8b23","headline":"110-Point Contagion Gap: Sell Crowley Margin Market at 88c","pitch":"C2, C3, C4, and C6 all show the David Crowley margin-of-victory contract lagging at 88c despite trigger markets having moved -75 to -83 delta against a large Democratic margin outcome. The contagion gap is 108-110 points — the largest in the entire dataset. Meanwhile Francesca Hong (M7, M17) at 10c with 2.4M volume represents a 32-43 delta move suggesting competitive pressure is real. Sell the overpriced Crowley margin contract before primary resolution on day 83.","conviction":"high","direction":"sell","markets":[{"theme":"Wisconsin Democratic Primary Contagion Mispricing","title":"Will the margin of victory for David Crowley in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: David Crowley, 0-3%","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-DCRO-P1","checkDate":"2026-11-03","currentPrice":84,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":19,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":110,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Crowley margin-of-victory contract resolves NO or at reduced probability <60c","themeNarrative":"The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is generating the highest contagion gaps in the dataset — 108 to 110 points — between fast-moving trigger markets and a lagging David Crowley margin-of-victory contract stuck at 88c. M5 (Crowley nominee at 89c, 858k volume) and M7/M17 (Hong at 10c, 2.4M volume) are pricing a decisive Crowley victory, yet downstream margin markets have not caught up. The lag between nominee probability and margin-of-victory pricing is the structural edge.","livePrice":99,"volume":110344.82,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-08-11T14:00:00Z","yesAsk":100,"yesBid":99},{"theme":"Wisconsin Democratic Primary Contagion Mispricing","title":"Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?: Francesca Hong","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON","checkDate":"2026-11-03","currentPrice":10,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":19,"regime":"CRI 5.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":10,"contagionGap":110,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Crowley margin-of-victory contract resolves NO or at reduced probability <60c","themeNarrative":"The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is generating the highest contagion gaps in the dataset — 108 to 110 points — between fast-moving trigger markets and a lagging David Crowley margin-of-victory contract stuck at 88c. M5 (Crowley nominee at 89c, 858k volume) and M7/M17 (Hong at 10c, 2.4M volume) are pricing a decisive Crowley victory, yet downstream margin markets have not caught up. The lag between nominee probability and margin-of-victory pricing is the structural edge.","livePrice":0,"volume":7274077.96,"status":"finalized","closeTime":"2026-08-12T11:18:25Z","yesAsk":100,"yesBid":0}],"catalyst":"2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary result (83 days out, ~Nov 3 2026)","timeHorizon":"12 weeks","risk":"Crowley wins by large margin; Hong vote collapses entirely and the margin-of-victory contract resolves YES","edgeSize":null,"category":"geopolitics","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":["KXPRIMARYMOV-GOVWINOMD26-DCRO-P1","KXMIDTERMMOV-NJSEND-P9"],"sourceChanges":["KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON","KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON"],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.170Z","expiresAt":"2026-08-13T06:37:37.170Z","isStale":true,"slug":"110-point-contagion-gap-sell-crowley-margin-market-at-88c-ed086637","createdAt":"2026-08-12T06:37:37.173Z"}