{"id":"fbca268e-cb01-4c78-9f68-97674dc28aad","headline":"Contrarian: Insurrection Act at 44c is overpriced vs 21c twin","pitch":"L6 prices Insurrection Act invocation at 44c while L5 prices the same underlying event at 21c — a 23c cross-contract gap on what appears to be the same question at different venues (50% IY vs 797% IY respectively). This is a structural arb signal: sell L6 at 44c (buy NO) and optionally buy L5 at 21c. The highlights show no active domestic unrest scenario, and the base rate for Insurrection Act use in modern US history is near zero. The 23c gap is the edge; the thesis is mean-reversion to the lower-probability contract. Buy NO on L6.","conviction":"medium","direction":"buy_no","markets":[{"theme":"Trump Executive Power: Legislative Override Underpriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":44,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":50,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump does NOT invoke Insurrection Act (L6 resolves NO)","themeNarrative":"Congressional override and Insurrection Act markets show a wide dispersion between short-dated and long-dated probabilities that implies the market is not properly term-structuring executive risk. L1 (override before 2027) at 10c with 1,906% implied yield versus L2 (override ever) at 29c creates a 19c term-structure gap — the short-dated version should be lower, but the IY signal on L1 is extreme. Meanwhile L5 (Insurrection Act, 21c, 797% IY) vs L6 (44c, 50% IY) flags a cross-contract inconsistency on the same underlying event. These are contrarian fades of the 'Trump is unchecked' consensus.","livePrice":45,"volume":180692.03,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":44,"yesBid":42},{"theme":"Trump Executive Power: Legislative Override Underpriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before 2027","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXINSURRECTION-29-27","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":21,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":50,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump does NOT invoke Insurrection Act (L6 resolves NO)","themeNarrative":"Congressional override and Insurrection Act markets show a wide dispersion between short-dated and long-dated probabilities that implies the market is not properly term-structuring executive risk. L1 (override before 2027) at 10c with 1,906% implied yield versus L2 (override ever) at 29c creates a 19c term-structure gap — the short-dated version should be lower, but the IY signal on L1 is extreme. Meanwhile L5 (Insurrection Act, 21c, 797% IY) vs L6 (44c, 50% IY) flags a cross-contract inconsistency on the same underlying event. These are contrarian fades of the 'Trump is unchecked' consensus.","livePrice":23,"volume":291484.43,"status":"active","closeTime":"2027-01-01T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":23,"yesBid":22},{"theme":"Trump Executive Power: Legislative Override Underpriced","title":"Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?: Before Jan 20, 2029","venue":"kalshi","ticker":"KXTAFTHARTLEY-29","checkDate":"2026-12-31","currentPrice":27,"quantSignals":{"iyPct":50,"regime":"CRI 1.3","edgeCents":null,"spreadCents":2,"contagionGap":null,"crossVenueGap":null},"outcomeTarget":"Trump does NOT invoke Insurrection Act (L6 resolves NO)","themeNarrative":"Congressional override and Insurrection Act markets show a wide dispersion between short-dated and long-dated probabilities that implies the market is not properly term-structuring executive risk. L1 (override before 2027) at 10c with 1,906% implied yield versus L2 (override ever) at 29c creates a 19c term-structure gap — the short-dated version should be lower, but the IY signal on L1 is extreme. Meanwhile L5 (Insurrection Act, 21c, 797% IY) vs L6 (44c, 50% IY) flags a cross-contract inconsistency on the same underlying event. These are contrarian fades of the 'Trump is unchecked' consensus.","livePrice":27,"volume":4952,"status":"active","closeTime":"2029-01-20T15:00:00Z","yesAsk":34,"yesBid":27}],"catalyst":"Absence of domestic crisis event requiring military deployment; legislative session proceeding normally","timeHorizon":"Ongoing presidential term","risk":"Domestic unrest event (protests, border crisis escalation) triggers invocation; L5 reprices up to match L6","edgeSize":null,"category":"policy","sourceHighlights":[],"sourceEdges":[],"sourceChanges":[],"model":"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6","generatedAt":"2026-07-13T06:38:13.113Z","expiresAt":"2026-07-14T06:38:13.113Z","isStale":true,"slug":"contrarian-insurrection-act-at-44c-is-overpriced-vs-21c-twin-fbca268e","createdAt":"2026-07-13T06:38:13.118Z"}