{"ticker":"0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?","description":"This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled \"Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)\" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.\n\nIf this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.\n\nNote: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.","price":5,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":5,"spread":0,"volume":30668.984392000028,"volume24h":307.59,"openInterest":6878.18926,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-12-31","liquidityScore":"high","bidLevels":[{"price":5,"size":553},{"price":5,"size":241},{"price":4,"size":2111},{"price":4,"size":3120},{"price":3,"size":10},{"price":1,"size":100},{"price":1,"size":2085},{"price":1,"size":23}],"askLevels":[{"price":5,"size":633},{"price":5,"size":333},{"price":5,"size":333},{"price":5,"size":333},{"price":5,"size":526},{"price":5,"size":494},{"price":5,"size":694},{"price":6,"size":40}],"slug":"how-many-large-volcano-eruptions-vei-4-in-2026-2-polymarket-0x73e9645141","indicators":{"tauDays":236,"iyYes":2943.311023304572,"iyNo":8.153216131037597,"cri":19,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0,"cvr":null,"overround":-0.02,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":1471.66,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-05-09T09:08:26.819Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.341,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":0,"bidDepthUsd":8243,"askDepthUsd":3386,"volume24h":307.59,"observability":"low","eventType":"scientific","asPrior":0.15},"computedAt":"2026-05-09T09:11:53.135Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/how-many-large-volcano-eruptions-vei-4-in-2026-2-polymarket-0x73e9645141","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa","fetchedAt":"2026-05-09T09:11:53.135Z"}