{"ticker":"0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0","venue":"polymarket","title":"Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nQualifying \"Gulf States\" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"military action\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.\n\nThe primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.\n\nIf the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.","price":6,"bestBid":5,"bestAsk":6,"spread":1,"volume":433973.27246300026,"volume24h":11566.872713,"openInterest":68559.4563,"status":"open","closeTime":"2026-04-30","indicators":{"tauDays":6,"iyYes":92815.01920683873,"iyNo":378.1508251976227,"cri":15.667,"ee":null,"eeSource":null,"las":0.1667,"cvr":null,"overround":null,"rv":null,"vr":null,"iar":null,"adjIy":38671.38,"daysToEvent":null,"expectedVr":null,"residualVr":null,"hasThesis":false,"hasOrderbook":true,"lastComputedAt":"2026-04-23T20:08:13.091Z"},"crossVenue":null,"regime":{"score":0.5,"label":"neutral","signals":{"spreadCents":1,"volume24h":11566.872713},"computedAt":"2026-04-23T20:14:16.361Z","fresh":true},"nextActions":{"inspect":[{"description":"Full dossier for 0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0"},{"description":"Orderbook depth","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0?depth=true"}],"related":[{"description":"Contagion — lagging siblings","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/contagion?window=6h"},{"description":"Top edges across theses","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/edges"},{"description":"Salience snapshot","method":"GET","url":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"}]},"pageUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/markets/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0","apiUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/market/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0","inspectUrl":"https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/inspect/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0","fetchedAt":"2026-04-23T20:14:16.362Z"}